Beware of a black swan event that could derail the longest running bull market in history. January 2020 Prediction Issue, Forecasts & Strategies
My prediction of a black swan event just eight weeks ago has hit the global economy fast and furiously, threatening the bull market.
Some experts are now predicting a global pandemic from the coronavirus, sending the Dow, especially tech stocks, down sharply all week long.Moreover, real-life socialism is no longer a pipe dream in America.
Self-proclaimed socialistBernie Sandersnow has a 52% chance of winning the Democratic nomination for president, while moderateMichael Bloombergis under 20%. For the latest betting odds, go to John Stosselswww.electionbettingodds.com.
Sanders has gone wild.He favors a plethora of new taxes to pay for socialized medicine, free college tuition and universal free childcare for every American family, financed by new taxes on wealth, income, capital gains and even a fee every time you buy or sell a stock.
Get ready for an extended bear market if Sanders gets elected.
Warnings from One of My Most Astute Observers
I just received a dire warning from one of the countrys most astute geopolitical observers.He predicted the real estate collapse in 2008 but has been bullish ever since.So, he is somebody whose thoughts are worth hearing.
Now, suddenly, he has turned negative.He wrote me:
Even if Sanders wins the nomination but gets trounced in November, the fact that he has attracted tens of millions to his wacko agenda is pretty darn scary.
And if the coronavirus or something else causes the U.S. economy to tank, he could possibly win and get a Democratic House and Senate, too.
There is a great flaw at the heart of democracy and todays Democratic party is doing its best to exploit it and capitalize on it: Eventually the mob gets what it wants.
And what the mob wants is more free stuff paid for by the fools who took responsibility for themselves and worked, saved, invested and reinvested.
Politically, the country is headed to a very ugly place. Just wait until the next serious downturn
Whats even more scary is that Republicans in Congress are starting to favor a wealth tax.
My geopolitical expert mentioned above wishes his comments to be anonymous, but he will be speaking at this years emergency meeting at FreedomFest, which I announced last week.You better be there if you want to preserve your capital.
Last week, I met withDavid McIntosh, the president of Club for Growth, the most active and politically astute PAC in the country, and he plans to be at FreedomFest for the first time because of the urgency of whats happening in this country.
Longtime subscribers know that Im usually optimistic about the economy and the stock market and have been 100% invested, although Ive added gold lately as a hedge.
But now, I firmly believe that were not just at a crossroads.We are at the brink of disaster.
There are two reasons.
First, there is growing evidence that the coronavirus (COVID-19) could well have escaped from a biological plant in Wuhan, China, run by the Chinese military.It is no ordinary virus.
This is a major setback in the plans of the Chinese communists to dominate the world and restore China to what they consider its rightful place in history.
According toJonathan D. T. Ward,the foremost authority on China and author of the bestseller,Chinas Vision of Victory,the Chinese communists are slowly but surely engaged in a military and industrial buildup to replace America as the worlds superpower.
His book is now essential reading in the Department of Defense (DoD).Ward is a consultant to the DoD and Fortune 500 companies and speaks fluent Mandarin, Russian, Arabic and Spanish.He was in the Oval Office at the signing ceremony for the U.S.-China trade agreement.
He will be one of our keynote speakers at FreedomFest 2020.
The Rise of Socialism in America
The second reason we could be at the brink of disaster is the dramatic rise of Bernie Sanders as the probable candidate for the Democratic nominationfor president
For the first time in American history, a hardcore, self-proclaimed socialist could be become President of the United States. Thats scary.
The idea of American Exceptionalism along with your wealth and our way of life are under threat as never before.
100 Years Ago Ludwig von Mises Took on the Socialists
100years ago, Ludwig von Misestook on the socialists in his classic article, Economic Calculation in a Socialist Commonwealth, published in 1920. He later developed his thesis into a full-length book calledSocialism: An Economic and Sociological Analysis.
Today, I received a complete list of the best books on the folly of socialism, compiled by Bill Ever at the Independent Institute.It includes Misess classic work,Socialism.You can see the list here:https://www.independent.org/issues/article.asp?id=13056.
Unfortunately, the list does not include a single textbook.It is textbooks that will change the hearts and minds of students, our future leaders.
One of the reasons we are losing this battle is that we dont focus on textbooks,that is, the books that college students are required to study that criticize socialism.
The Book the New Socialists Fear the Most
Thats why Ive been promoting my ownThe Making of Modern Economics as The Book the New Socialists Fear the Most.Ive been running full page ads in Reason, National Review and yes, even The Economist (at great expense).
Why do the new socialists fear my book the most?Because it inoculates students against socialists when they are most vulnerable as teenagers and early adults.
The Making of Modern Economicsis now in its 3rd edition and published by Routledge.It is used in dozens of colleges and universities now.
My book was ranked as the #2 most important economics book ever written by the Ayn Rand Institute (behind Henry Hazlitts Economics in One Lesson), which won the Choice Book Award in 2009 and has been banned at the University of Philippines (a hotbed of Marxism) because of its devastating chapter on Marx Madness
Click here to read the story behind my writing The Making of Modern Economics, based on the Adam Smith Lecture I gave in Edinburgh in late 2018.
If you want a copy, go towww.skousenbooks.com, or call Harold at Ensign Publishing at 1-866-254-2057.The paperback version ofThe Making of Modern Economicssells for $49.95 retail, but you pay only $35 postpaid if mailed in the United States.(Call Harold for additional fees to mail outside the United States.)
Could a Socialist Really Get Elected?
Mises recognized that the debate between capitalism and socialism was an eternal battle for the hearts and minds of all peoples.Socialism is the failed idea that never dies.
When the Berlin Wall collapsed and the Soviet central planning model was abandoned, everyone thought that socialism was finished.AsRobert Heilbronerfamously wrote,Capitalism has won.Mises was right!
Countries around the world abandoned socialism, opened up their countries to foreign capital and cut taxes and regulations.
But, asMilton Friedmanonce said,Freedom is a rare and delicate flower.
The capitalist victory was cut short by the financial crisis of 2008.Socialism is making a big-time comeback.
Now, in 2020, an avowed socialist is gaining support, especially among young people.Could America really elect a socialist President?
ProfessorAllan Lichtman,author ofThe Keys to the White House, is one of our keynote speakers at FreedomFest in July.He has accurately forecast the winner in every election from Reagan to Trump. At this writing, he says that despite a booming economy under Trump,The election is too close to call.
You wont want to miss his talk at FreedomFest in July, when he will update us on the state of the election and the Democratic National Convention, which will be running concurrently, July 13-16. His topic:The 2020 Presidential Election: My Surprising Prediction!
We are also organizing a critical session onLudwig von Mises and the Socialist Calculation Debate,in honor of the 100thanniversary of Misess work, that will include Mises Institute economistTom Woods, the premier Misesian ProfessorRichard Ebelingand, for the first time, Nobel Prize-winning economistVernon Smith.
From Adam Smith to Vernon Smith
Vernon Smith, professor at Chapman University, is considered the worlds most path-breaking scholar in experimental economics, and through his creative genius, he has reignited the virtues of Adam Smiths system of natural liberty as the best alternative to the socialist agenda.
We are thrilled to have Vernon and his wife,Candace, joining for the first time.(Candace, who is an expert on business etiquette, will also be speaking.)
The socialist-capitalist divide is one of the most important debates of our time. You need to know the arguments so you can influence those around you during this significant election year.
Calling All Investors and Concerned Citizens:Emergency Meeting at FreedomFest 2020
Thats why at this years FreedomFest 2020, I am organizing an emergency strategy meeting, calling all investors and freedom lovers to join with the major freedom organizations and think tanks to develop a plan for fighting against the socialists and protecting your assets.
Dr. Jordan Peterson, Steve Forbes, John Mackey, Grover Norquist, Tom Woods, Steve Moore, Larry Elder, Alex Green, Hilary Kramer, Jim WoodsandWayne Allyn Root, along with representatives of all the major think tanks and freedom organizations, will be there.We need you too.
This is the first emergency meeting weve had since the 2008 financial crisis.
The socialist Democrats are downright scary in their call for a wealth tax, socialized medicine and free college education to brainwash our future leaders.It could bankrupt our economy, end the bull market on Wall Street and ruin our way of life.
Too much is at stake.
I am calling upon all investors and freedom lovers to join us to learn, network and fight for our liberties and our financial well-being as never before.
A Call to Arms
On the final page of his book, Socialism,Ludwig von Misesurged every citizen to be prepared to fight for freedom. Here was his call to arms which is so relevant for today:
Everyone carries a part of society on his shoulders; no one is relieved of his share of responsibility by others.And no one can find a safe way out for himself if society is sweeping toward destruction.Therefore, everyone, in his own interests, must thrust himself vigorously into the intellectual battle.None can stand aside with unconcern; the interests of everyone hang on the result.Whether he chooses or not, every man is drawn into the great historic struggle, thedecisive battleinto which our epoch has plunged us.
AsBenjamin Franklinsaid, We must all hang together, or we shall surely all hang separately.
Over 630 investors and concerned citizens have already signed up for this years FreedomFest 30% ahead of last year.We are expecting a record crowd because of our incredible line-up in the face of growing dangers in our country.
I urge you to be a part of the greatest libertarian show in earth.
Come to FreedomFest, where we will learn who the two major candidates will be, how to stem the gathering tide of socialism and how to prepare your life and your investments accordingly.
To register and take advantage of the early bird discount, go towww.freedomfest.comand use code FF20EAGLE.
You Blew it!Prohibition is Back!
Itwas only a matter of time.Last week, the Manhattan Beach City Council adopted an ordinance to go into effect January 1, 2021, banning tobacco sales, which will include cigarettes and electronic smoking devices such as vapes.
Mayor Nancy Hersman stated, With the passage of this landmark ordinance, Manhattan Beach becomes only the second jurisdiction in United States history to prohibit the sale of all tobacco products.
She went on to say, Smoking in public has been prohibited in Manhattan Beach for many years and this ordinance sends a strong message that any tobacco use or sale is not acceptable in our City.
The City Council members indicated they recognize the dangers of tobacco use and that tobacco is the single deadliest consumer product, which causes millions of premature, preventable deaths, the news release said.
Tobacco use continues to be an urgent public health threat, as evidenced by the fact that 480,000 people die prematurely in the United States from smoking-related diseases every year, making tobacco use the leading cause of preventable death, according to a statement from city officials.
This is a classic example of government hubris.They know better than the private citizen.
Itis truly amazing that now smoking and selling marijuanaare legalin Manhattan Beach, and smoking and selling tobacco arent!
Whats next?Banning automobiles in Manhattan Beach? They cause even more deaths and pollutionthan cigarettes.
Or how about banning the sale of alcoholic beverages?Boozekills millions every year.Bring back prohibition!
Today, more and more everything is either mandated or prohibited.Freedom is still a dangerous word in America.
Itlooks like someone needs to send copies of ourpamphlet,Persuasion vs. Forceto the mayor and city council.It is published online and can be read by clicking here.
The most famous meme from this pamphlet is,The triumph of persuasion over force is the sign of a civilized society.
It looks like civilization just took a step backwards.
Read the original here:
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