Category Archives: Bitcoin

Bloomberg Foresees Bitcoin Rallying to $400K This Year – CoinDesk – CoinDesk

How high can bitcoin fly in the ongoing bull run? Thats a question on tradersminds after the cryptocurrencys price jumped fivefold since October.

According to Bloomberg bitcoin (BTC) analysts, the price could climb as high as $400,000 this year, from about $56,000 now. The uber-bullish prediction is based on bitcoins performance during the 2017 and 2013 bull runs.

Our graphic depicts bitcoin on similar ground as the roughly 55x gain in 2013 and 15x in 2017, Bloomberg Crypto noted in a monthly report published this week. To reach price extremes akin to those years in 2021, the crypto would approach $400,000, based on the regression since the 2011 high.

While past performance is no guarantee of future results, history might rhyme. The latest bull run comes in the wake of last Mays reward halving on the Bitcoin blockchain an automatic, every-four-years, 50% reduction in the pace of new issuance of units of the cryptocurrency.

Bitcoin chalked up staggering gains in the 12 to 18 months following the previous reward halvings in November 2012 and July 2016.

The year after a supply cut (halving) is what 2021 has in common with 2017 and 2013, along with subdued volatility, the Bloomberg bitcoin analysts wrote, adding that the December 2017 peak represented a 50-fold rise from the average price observed in October 2015, when the 180-day volatility reached lifetime lows.

The long-term volatility gauge almost revisited the record low in September 2020, analysts noted. Bitcoin averaged roughly $11,000 that month.

Some observers fear a faster rise in bond yields could dilute the appeal of inflation hedges such as gold and bitcoin, pushing their prices lower.

However, Bloomberg analysts foresee bitcoin remaining relatively resilient in a rising yield environment.

Rising real yields are a headwind for gold prices, but less so for bitcoin, still in its price-discovery stage, analysts noted. Gold is fighting a battle with bitcoin, which can earn 6%-8% in crypto savings accounts and is well on its way to becoming a global reserve asset in a digital world.

The cryptocurrency fell by 20% in the last week of February after the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose to then-12-month highs above 1.5%. The yield has continued to rise since then and recently reached a 14-month high of 1.77%. The bitcoin market, meanwhile, has held firm.

According to the report, the steep discount witnessed recently in the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), a popular investment vehicle, is the result of increased expectations that the U.S. will eventually approve a bitcoin exchange-traded fund. GBTC is still holding its 50-day average support, which has enticed buyers in the past. (Grayscale is owned by Digital Currency Group, which also owns CoinDesk.)

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Bloomberg Foresees Bitcoin Rallying to $400K This Year - CoinDesk - CoinDesk

Here’s How the Archegos Debacle May Have Spilled Over to Bitcoin – CoinDesk – CoinDesk

There is a small ripple effect from the multibillion-dollar Archegos Capital fallout to the crypto world, which is reflected on the bitcoin futures premium on CME. But the crypto market is largely unaffected.

The latest crisis on Wall Street involves a rapid de-risking triggered by the trading crisis at Archegos Capital, a family office managing at least $10 billion that bet $50 billion-$80 billion on leverage that led to nearly $5 billion of losses for Switzerlands Credit Suisse and the departure this week of its investment-banking chief.

Chicago-based CME, which offers traditional finance players bitcoin exposure with its popular futures contract, may have been slightly affected, as seen in its CME futures premium, or the price reflected in futures contracts minus the current spot price. That premium has lagged behind the equivalent gauge at popular retail-focused exchanges including Binance, Deribit, FTX and OKEx.

According to a top crypto-industry investor, the discrepancy might reflect the Wall Street deleveraging.

We are seeing everywhere de-leveraging in the traditional financial space, Jeff Dorman, chief investment officer at the digital-asset investment firm Arca Funds, told CoinDesk in a phone interview. The CME mostly serves your typical big hedge funds, big mutual funds, and the leverage is less than it was because of this leverage crackdown from the prime brokers and from the exchanges in traditional markets.

On the CME, the annualized bitcoin futures premium rate, the gap between bitcoins long-term futures contract prices and the current spot market price, is, on average, at 8.67%. That compares with a range of 27%-31% on crypto exchanges including FTX, Deribit, Binance, and OKEx, according to crypto derivatives data provider Skew.

The difference between bitcoin futures premium on CME and other crypto exchanges has widened since the end of March, when the troubles surfaced at Bill Hwangs Archegos Capital.

Patrick Heusser, a senior cryptocurrency trader at Zurich-based Crypto Broker AG, explained the futures premium is sometimes a function of the demand for leverage by traders on an exchange.

In a bull market like right now, the traders who look to go long on leverage are willing to pay the premium, the cost for the leverage, Heusser said. Because there is not much leverage you can take on the CME, the future premium is not that steep or big compared with other platforms.

In theory, the futures premium on CME should be lower than it is on other crypto exchanges due to its more restrictive trading rules and limited leverage positions, Heusser added.

Another explanation is the premium has been rising on crypto exchanges since the end of March because of traders bullish views on bitcoin.

There are more overly confident traders and more leveraged longs probably, says Bendik Norheim Schei, head of research at Arcane Research. Traders are expecting higher prices and taking on long positions.

Traders on retail-focused crypto-derivatives exchanges are already in the crypto ecosystem, Dorman said. Its just a completely different investor base and completely different leverage base. So what was happening is you still have really aggressive investors in the crypto world who are levering up to buy as much risk as they can.

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Here's How the Archegos Debacle May Have Spilled Over to Bitcoin - CoinDesk - CoinDesk

‘We’ve reached a tipping point’ on bitcoin adoption, Fidelity’s Tom Jessop says – MarketWatch

Tom Jessop, head of Fidelity Digital Assets at Fidelity Investments, says that the maturation and adoption of digital assets as a class of investments will continue at a rapid pace in coming years, signaling that crypto may have turned a corner in traditional finance circles.

I think we continue to see adoption at an accelerated pace for a host of reasons, he said Wednesday afternoon during an interview at MarketWatch and BarronsInvesting in Crypto virtual event series.

Check out: U.S. is behind the curve on crypto regulations, says SEC Commissioner Peirce

Jessop said that a backdrop of ultralow interest rates and an environment that has been stimulated by easy-money policies has helped to drive momentum into bitcoin BTCUSD, +2.12% and other assets, which are increasingly being seen as alternatives to assets that are considered richly priced by some measure and bonds that are offering meager yields.

The S&P 500 index SPX, +0.16% booked its 18th record closing high of 2021 on Wednesday and the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -0.21% wasnt far from its all-time high as the 10-year Treasury TMUBMUSD10Y, 1.638% yielded around 1.66%.

Read: China may be using bitcoin as financial weapon against U.S., says Peter Thiel

Were not going to get out of this stimulated environment anytime soon, Jessop said. I think weve reached a tipping point.

I think youve had the accumulated experience of now roughly 12 years of the bitcoin blockchain being operative since the genesis block in early 2009. And the pandemic, quite frankly, was a catalyst for institutional adoption, and specifically bitcoin and the narrative, or use-case, around digital gold, Jessop said.

Particularly, in an environment where weve seen unprecedented monetary and fiscal stimulus from central banks and governments in response to the pandemic, he said.

Fidelity has been at the vanguard of integrating digital assets into traditional investment portfolios. The asset manager was one of the first major institutions to explore bitcoin, starting in 2015.

The company created the digital asset unit, which Jessop heads, in 2019.

Bitcoin was trading at $56,500 on Wednesday, up 95% so far this year.

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'We've reached a tipping point' on bitcoin adoption, Fidelity's Tom Jessop says - MarketWatch

Bitcoin ETF coming in a year or two, analyst says as SEC mulls applications – CNBC

The Securities and Exchange Commission formally acknowledged a bitcoin ETF proposal from VanEck just two weeks ago, starting the countdown on its 45-day approval timeline.

But seeing a bitcoin ETF approved in the next 30 days isn't that likely, according to Todd Rosenbluth, head of ETF and mutual fund research at CFRA Research.

It's more likely that the SEC will extend its timeline, he told CNBC's "ETF Edge" on Monday.

"We've got a number of firms that have either gone through the filing process or have previously filed but are waiting for more clarity," Rosenbluth said. "The SEC is less likely to try to pick a winner, we think, as to who comes first and we're more likely to see them if they do approve any ETF to approve multiple bitcoin-related ETFs. We've got a number of firms that have entered and we think we're likely to see one in the coming year or two, but we don't have a firm time frame as to when the answer would be yes."

Joining the roster of prospective bitcoin ETF issuers is Grayscale. The investment firm said Monday it was "100% committed" to converting its Grayscale Bitcoin Trust into an ETF. VanEck, Fidelity and Valkyrie Digital Assets are among the firms that have already filed applications.

With so much discussion around bitcoin, some may wonder whether it could be worked into ETFs such as VanEck's new Social Sentiment ETF (BUZZ) because of the digital coin's popularity, but the answer is no, says Jamie Wise, founder of Buzz Indexes.

"There's an awful lot of discussion around bitcoin and other crypto-assets and tokens for buyers, but no, you shouldn't expect to see any crypto into BUZZ," he said in the same "ETF Edge" interview. "BUZZ is very clearly defined as large-cap U.S. equity exposure by sentiment and would not hold bitcoin or other crypto-assets."

While you won't find any crypto-assets in BUZZ, VanEck's models do track and analyze sentiment around cryptocurrencies, "and we'll see what happens in the future," Wise said. "Maybe not in BUZZ. Maybe in something else."

In other areas of the ETF market, there is still a push to incorporate crypto exposure despite regulatory limits.

Art Amador, co-founder and chief operating officer of EquBot and the man behind the Artificial Intelligence Powered ETF (AIEQ), said that while his fund can't invest in bitcoin, it's important to get into the crypto ecosystem.

AIEQ does this through small-cap names such as Silvergate Capital, which provides cash management services to digital currency businesses, and Marathon Digital Holdings, a cryptocurrency mining company.

"We want investors to have exposure," Amador said in the same "ETF Edge" interview. "That said, we're also seeing a lot of regulatory headwinds, not just here in the U.S., but also globally."

Still, he expects further increases into the ecosystem as headwinds subside.

The price of bitcoin climbed nearly 1.5% on Monday, according to CoinMetrics.

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Bitcoin ETF coming in a year or two, analyst says as SEC mulls applications - CNBC

Texas A&M Mays Innovation Research Center To Host Bitcoin Conference April 16-17 – Texas A&M University Today

Experts representing numerous aspects of the cryptocurrency Bitcoin are scheduled to participate in the Bitcoin Conference April 16-17, hosted by the Mays Innovation Research Center, a center of excellence within Mays Business School at Texas A&M University.

The conference, which will be held via Zoom but with an in-person option on April 17, will address topics such as Bitcoins economic foundations, underlying technology, business and finance, and the law/policy/regulatory landscape.

Bitcoin is one of the most radical innovations of our time, so it is appropriate that the Center convene a healthy debate on Bitcoin from all angles, said Center Director Korok Ray.

Bitcoin, created in 2009 by an unknown person, is the first cryptocurrency. The digital currency is bought and sold anonymously, usually through exchanges such as Coinbase, without the need for banks or other intermediaries. The supply is limited to 21 million coins.

Bitcoin is now reaching widespread adoption and attention from institutional investors and corporations in addition to retail investors, Ray said. This attention is at least partly in response to the current low interest rate policies of the Federal Reserve.

There is considerable debate among investment professionals regarding the fundamental value of Bitcoin. Some market participants expect Bitcoins value to continue to rise, reflecting an increase in competition for a limited number of coins. Others are more conservative in their predictions, pointing to significant regulatory risk and to the fact that, contrary to other financial assets, acquiring Bitcoin does not confer their holder a claim on a commodity, on a precious metal, or on the cashflow of any other asset.

Ray said conference participants will better understand what Bitcoin is and how it works, as well as its possibilities, limitations, and future prospects.

The conference idea came from conversations between Mays Business School faculty, including Ray, and Grant Weston, Texas A&M Bitcoin Club president.

I founded the Texas A&M Bitcoin Club with my roommate Matt Lohstroh to create a community around Bitcoin, said Weston, a senior busines honors major. Students need to know about the opportunities that are out there. The Bitcoin space is still so small. Every new participant makes a difference.

Featured speakers will include Ray Dalio of Bridgewater Associates; Tim Draper of Draper Fisher Jurvetson; Michael Saylor of MicroStrategy; Bill Miller of Miller Value Partners; Pete Briger of Fortress Investment Group; Glenn Hutchins of Silver Lake Partners; Rob Kaplan of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas; Dawn Stump of the Commodities Futures Trading Commission; Nobel Laureate Eric Maskin of Harvard; and more.

For the full schedule and to register, go to the Bitcoin Conference registration page.

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Texas A&M Mays Innovation Research Center To Host Bitcoin Conference April 16-17 - Texas A&M University Today

The IRS wants to know all about your Bitcoin holdings — and this court summons is a reminder – MarketWatch

The IRS wants Circle, a Boston-based financial technology company enabling trade in various types of cryptocurrencies, to produce account-registration information, account activity records and other materials for customers who had at least $20,000 in transactions any year from 2016 to 2020.

Cryptocurrency has gained prominence and value over the year, but the IRS says tax reporting hasnt kept up.

The IRS issued Circle with a summons, which is part of an ongoing investigation by the Internal Revenue Service to make sure all sorts of cryptocurrency users across the board are reporting and paying up their tax obligations, the government explained in court papers.

The IRS treats cryptocurrency as property and, when its sold at a profit, the tax collection agency will assess a capital-gains tax. If, that is, the IRS knows the transaction occurred.

The IRS treats cryptocurrency as property and, when its sold at a profit, it will assess a capital-gains tax. If, that is, the IRS knows the transaction occurred.

The IRS and the Justice Department note they are not alleging any wrongdoing on Circles part but based on dealings with some people who have Circle accounts, the feds want more information to see who else might be owing tax money.

For example, one unidentified taxpayer amended 2014-2017 returns to show $1.6 million in previously unreported virtual currency sales, the government said. Poloniex was one of the exchanges the taxpayer used.

(Circle sold the Poloniex exchange in late 2019 and customers in America can no longer trade on the exchange, court papers noted.)

Massachusetts Federal District Richard Stearns signed off on the summons Thursday, saying it was narrow enough and supported by a reasonable basis to think some account holders might not be following tax laws.

Were reviewing, and of course expect to work collaboratively with the IRS in responding to the court order, a Circle spokesman told MarketWatch.

The summons sends the clear message to U.S. taxpayers that the IRS is working to ensure that they are fully compliant in their use of virtual currency, IRS Commissioner Chuck Rettig said in a statement. We will enforce the law where we find systemic noncompliance or fraud.

The IRS has filed other court summons seeking information from other exchanges in previous years, said Dale Werts, a partner at Lathrop GPM in Kansas City, Mo., where he advises companies on blockchain and cryptocurrency matters.

But its also coming during tax season, at a time when rising cryptocurrency prices are at the front of mind for many investors. This is their way of reminding you, Hey, you better fill out your tax return properly,' he said.

For Werts, its not that the tax laws on cryptocurrency are new. Since 2014, the IRS has stated its view that capital gains taxation rules apply. Its just a new crowd that has to learn the laws that have been on the books for years, Werts said. Lots of folks, I discovered, believe that cryptocurrency is new and existing laws dont apply. This is just not true.

The summons is another sign of cryptocurrencys growing mainstream appeal, according to David Sacco, practitioner in resident at the University of New Havens Pompea College of Business. The IRS has its eyes on the money in the emerging market and more eyes may ultimately mean more regulation and investor protections, said Sacco, who teaches finance courses.

The IRS revised its tax paperwork this year to give prominent play to one question about cryptocurrency. Near the top of the 1040s first page, it asks, At any time during 2020, did you receive, sell, send, exchange, or otherwise acquire any financial interest in any virtual currency?

When Sacco looked over the revamped 1040, the question struck him as a little creepy but on the other hand, it makes it like any other asset class now.

Two accountants specializing in cryptocurrency and taxes were split when previously talking to MarketWatch on whether to answering yes for merely buying currencies like bitcoin or ether. Answering yes doesnt necessarily mean more taxes, they note.

Either way, a lots happened for cryptocurrency in 2020, and 2021 so far looks to be no different. Bitcoin BTCUSD, +2.06% tripled in value during 2020. Ethereum ETHUSD, +2.16% hit a record value above $2,000 on Friday, and was trading above that on Monday, as Bitcoin traded near $58,000 on Monday.

Between 2013 and 2015, a mere 800 to 900 taxpayers filed returns reporting cryptocurrency, the IRS said. That number increased from 2016 to 2018, but the numbers still fall far short of what would be expected given the number of users, transactions, and value that the exchanges publicize occur on an annual basis, court filings said.

Over the years, the IRS has stepped up enforcement. In the summer of 2019, it sent more than 10,000 letters to people it believed potentially failed to report virtual currency income. The taxpayer who amended returns to report $1.6 million in previously unreported sales was one of the letter recipients, the court filing said.

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The IRS wants to know all about your Bitcoin holdings --- and this court summons is a reminder - MarketWatch

Kevin OLeary says he will only buy bitcoin mined with clean energy, and none mined in China – CNBC

Celebrity investor Kevin O'Leary says he will only buy bitcoin mined sustainably in countries that use clean energy and not "blood coin" mined in China.

"I see over the next year or two, two kinds of coin," he told CNBC's "Capital Connection" on Monday. "Blood coin from China, (and) clean coin mined sustainably in countries that use hydroelectricity, not coal."

Bitcoin mining is extremely energy intensive, and around 65% of the world's bitcoin was mined in China as of April 2020, according to Statista.

"I'm going on the side of clean coin," said O'Leary.

O'Leary did not elaborate on where he acquires "clean" bitcoin, but some countries use hydroelectric power more widely than others, and there are entities that claim to mine cryptocurrencies in a sustainable way.

The chairman of O'Shares ETFs once called bitcoin "garbage," but changed his mind more recently and said he would allocate 3% of his personal portfolio to the cryptocurrency, according to a CoinDesk report.

O'Leary said he was "inundated" by institutions asking if he was buying "blood coin from China" after he said he wanted to invest in bitcoin.

I'm not buying coin unless I know where it was mined, when it was mined, the provenance of it. Not in China. No blood coin for me.

Kevin O'Leary

Chairman of OShares ETFs

Increasingly, large institutions impose restrictions on assets they will hold in order to comply with environmental and corporate governance rules. Concerns include human rights and carbon emissions. O'Leary said whether products are made in China is also a consideration.

"All these issues have now come to the fore on bitcoin," he said. "Institutions will not buy coin mined in China, coin mined using coal to burn for electricity, coin mined in countries with sanctions on them."

Institutions are saying that they don't want to endorse China because of issues with human rights, he added.

O'Leary said personally, he's working to ensure every coin he owns is compliant.

"I'm not buying coin unless I know where it was mined, when it was mined, the provenance of it," he said. "Not in China. No blood coin for me."

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Kevin OLeary says he will only buy bitcoin mined with clean energy, and none mined in China - CNBC

Professional Soccer Players Are Buying Bitcoin And It Will Protect Their Wealth – Bitcoin Magazine

According to online reports, Galatasaray S.K. and Netherlands national football teams Ryan Babel has been shilling bitcoin to his teammates.

Babel has played for Ajax, Liverpool, Fulham and others. He has played in the Champions League, Euro 2012 and the World Cupbuilding connections to some of the best-known and well-compensated soccer players in Europe. Babel has shared his eagerness to accumulate bitcoin on Twitter, so it is not a stretch to imagine that the reports are accurate.

If Babel and his teammates have been buying bitcoin for the past six months, for example, then theyve made some hefty gains. This is as important to athletes as it is to anyone else, as they need a place to store their wealth in the best possible way. Securing their wealth behind a wall of cyber hornets and a 21 million supply cap ensures it will not deteriorate, but actually increase in value. The only meaningful difference between Bitcoin plebs and pro athletes is that the latter tend to have tens- to hundreds-of-millions of dollars more than the former with which to buy bitcoin.

Athletes have also been buying bitcoin here in the U.S., with NFL player Russell Okung using Strike to get a sizable portion of his $13 million contract paid to him in bitcoin. Why? Because Bitcoin is the perfect tool to protect ones wealth. The average career length of athletes isnt too long, and even though they make a lot of money, they need to protect it for the rest of their lives. Bitcoin excels at this.

Buying bitcoin, especially at around $60,000 prices, gives professional athletes a massive potential upside in gains. To put how big the gains can be in perspective: Babel reportedly earned a $2.37 million signing bonus in 2019, and the price of bitcoin rose by 87 percent across that year. Had he been able to allocate that bonus to BTC, he would have made more than $2 million in profit.

Rich athletes are figuring out that if they want to make a lot of money, all theyve got to do is accumulate bitcoin, and sit on it.

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Professional Soccer Players Are Buying Bitcoin And It Will Protect Their Wealth - Bitcoin Magazine

Bitcoin And Crypto Market Smashes Through $2 Trillion As The Price Of Ethereum, Binance Coin, Litecoin And Ripples XRP Suddenly Soar – Forbes

Bitcoin and cryptocurrency prices are soaring, pushing the value of the entire cryptocurrency market over $2 trillion for the first time (though some think the bull run could be just getting started).

With the bitcoin price hovering around $60,000 per bitcoin, the psychological $2 trillion barrier was broken by sharp increases in the price of smaller cryptocurrencies ethereum, binance coin, Ripple's XRP and litecoin, according to data from crypto price website CoinGecko.

INDIA - 2020/04/30: In this photo illustration a Bitcoin cryptocurrency logo seen displayed on a ... [+] smartphone. (Photo Illustration by Avishek Das/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images)

The bitcoin and cryptocurrency market has more than doubled in value so far this year, rising from around $750 billion at the beginning of the year. Bitcoin, by far the biggest cryptocurrency by value, makes up more than half of the cryptocurrency market capitalization and has traditionally led the market.

However, the latest rally is being driven by ethereum and binance coin, both cryptocurrencies that have surged over the last year due to a burst of interest in so-called decentralized finance (DeFi). Ethereum, the second-largest cryptocurrency after bitcoin with a total value of around $250 billion, has hit a fresh all-time high price over the last weekadding a further 2% today.

Binance coin and bitcoin-rival litecoin, both top ten cryptocurrencies, have each added around 10% during the last 24 hours.

XRP, the cryptocurrency developed by the company Ripple, has leaped by 35% over the same period following upbeat comments from Ripple chief executive Brad Garlinghouse on the company's legal battle with U.S. regulators that have claimed XRP is a security and was illegally sold to investors. Ripple is braced for a key discovery session with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on Tuesday.

Meanwhile, bitcoin and cryptocurrency traders are feeling positive after breaking the $2 trillion barrier and it's thought this so-called altcoin rally could be set to continue for some time yet.

"I'm expecting continuation upwards in the coming weeks, with bitcoin lagging," says crypto trader and economist Alex Krger, speaking via Telegram. "The issue for this market is that leverage heats up too easily whenever bitcoin pushes higher. That's a headwind."

The bitcoin price has added almost 800% over the last 12 months, climbing to a total value of over ... [+] $1 trillion.

Other crypto market watchers are feeling similarly optimistic, though passing the $2 trillion milestone has had a muted reaction after a run that's seen so many barriers broken.

"It's a fun milestone to celebrate but as we know, quite meaningless," says Mati Greenspan, the founder of market analysis firm Quantum Economics, who's feeling bullish despite the massive gains cryptocurrencies have already racked up this year. "The crypto market will continue to grow and more non-crypto related markets will migrate to digital assets. It's a very good time for the industry."

The bitcoin and cryptocurrency bull run was sparked in October by news PayPal PYPL would be opening up its platform to bitcoin and a handful of other cryptocurrencies, kicking off a wave of institutional investment in the crypto space. Meanwhile, Telsa billionaire Elon Musk whipped retail traders into a frenzy with his pro-bitcoin tweets, setting the market alight when it was revealed Tesla had added $1.5 billion worth of bitcoin to its balance sheet.

The bitcoin and cryptocurrency community is now celebrating what it sees as the normalization of blockchain-based technology.

"With the crypto market cap exceeding $2 trillion, it is important to note that momentum and interest has begun to expand beyond bitcoin and ethereum," Paolo Ardoino, the chief technology officer at the British Virgin Islands-based bitcoin and cryptocurrency exchange Bitfinex, said in emailed comments.

"As the industry continues to mature, we expect more blockchain-based applications to be introduced to the world, and coinciding with that, a surge of interest around other alternative assets, dApps and ecosystems as they become more market-ready."

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Bitcoin And Crypto Market Smashes Through $2 Trillion As The Price Of Ethereum, Binance Coin, Litecoin And Ripples XRP Suddenly Soar - Forbes

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Forecast: Bitcoin Tumbles Ahead of FOMC Minutes – DailyFX

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Forecast:

Major cryptocurrencies have continued to outperform traditional assets, buoyed by an increase in the adoption of Bitcoin as an acceptable method of payment by mainstream players. However, after six consecutive months of gains, Bitcoin bulls are under pressure as BTC/USD struggles to trade back above the key psychological level of $60,000, a level which continues to hold bulls at bay.

Source: Refinitiv

Although the inherent value of BTC/USD remains a controversial topic, speculation and crowd psychology remain the primary catalysts for Bitcoin price action as a retest of last months cannot be ruled out. However, given the fact that Bitcoin prices surged approximately 1121% between the March 2020 low and the March 2021 record high of $61,759, the ability for bulls to maintain the upward trajectory remains questionable.

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Recently, Bitcoin has been trading within a well-defined range, with price action consolidating between $53,395 (the 14.4% Fibonacci retracement level of the 2020 2021 move) and the key psychological barrier of $60,000.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Weekly Chart

Chart prepared by Tammy Da Costa, IG

Although the upward trend from last year remains intact, with BTC/USD still tracking the positive slope reflected by the 8-period EMA, recent RSI divergence indicates that the bullish momentum could be losing steam.

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Bitcoin(BTC/USD) Daily Chart

Chart prepared by Tammy Da Costa, IG

For the more imminent move, the formation of a symmetrical triangle on the daily timeframemay keep Bitcoin within a tight range, with recent price action bouncing between prior support of $57,779 (the 23.6% retracement of the March 2021 move) and $60,00.

It seems as thoughthe stabilization of US Treasury Yields have hindered the advance in BTC/USD, allowing bears to drive prices below support and towards a next key level of $55,000. With prices hovering just above the 8-period EMA, the FOMC meeting minutes may assist in the catalyzation of short-term move.

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--- Written by Tammy Da Costa, Market Writer for DailyFX.com

Contact and follow Tammy on Twitter: @Tams707

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Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Forecast: Bitcoin Tumbles Ahead of FOMC Minutes - DailyFX