Category Archives: Bitcoin

Standard Chartered: Bitcoin to rally to $150,000 this year – CNBC

The excitement around the arrival of bitcoin exchange-traded funds and the subsequent surge to new highs for the cryptocurrency is making even bitcoin bulls raise their expectations. Standard Chartered's head of digital assets research, Geoff Kendrick, said in a note to clients Monday that he is raising his already-high estimates for bitcoin's trajectory. "We raise our long-held price estimate to the USD 150,000 level from USD 100,000 given the more rapid pass-through from ETF inflows to the BTC price to date," the note said. That $150,000 prediction would be more than double bitcoin's record high of nearly $74,000, according to Coin Metrics. The cryptocurrency was trading at around $68,000 Monday morning. BTC.CM= YTD mountain Bitcoin has rallied to record highs this year. The new bitcoin ETFs have pulled in billions of dollars from investors since their January launch, even with the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust seeing heavy outflows. The iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) has raked in more than $12 billion on its own, according to FactSet. The post-ETF rally for bitcoin has some similarities in what happened with gold, the physical asset that the digital currency has often been compared to. Kendrick said the behavior of gold after the introduction of its ETFs is one reason for optimism that the bitcoin rally can go even higher in 2025, along with other factors such as projected total ETF inflows of $75 billion. "This suggests to us that USD 200,000 is the 'correct' end-2025 price level for BTC, in line with our previous price estimate and that it is likely to be the new midpoint for a sideways trading range at that time. It also suggests that an overshoot to USD 250,000 is likely at some point in 2025 if ETF inflows continue apace and/or reserve managers buy BTC," the note said. The quick growth of the bitcoin ETFs has boosted confidence that there are more investors interested in crypto who have been reluctant to buy it through crypto exchanges. In theory, these funds could become a long-term, consistent source of demand for bitcoin. Predictions that bitcoin can rise above $100,000 have been made before, including during previous rallies that ended with dramatic declines.

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Standard Chartered: Bitcoin to rally to $150,000 this year - CNBC

Is Bitcoin ready for a new all-time high now that the excessive leverage is gone? – Cointelegraph

Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a 12.5% drop in price from March 14 to March 17, falling to $64,545, which led to significant buying activity around the $65,000 mark. Currently, opinions are mixed, and while the excessive leverage in Bitcoin futures has been resolved, investors are still pondering if BTC will be able to surpass its all-time high of $73,755.

Many believe that investors are waiting for the U.S. Federal Reservesmonetary policy meeting on March 20 before deciding to invest more in cryptocurrencies, despite the widespread expectation that interest rates will remain unchanged. This decision goes beyond short-term considerations, focusing on the Feds confidence in the economys ongoing strength.

Another key uncertainty for Bitcoin investors is when the Fed will cease reducing its $7.5 trillion balance sheet. Generally, a more expansive Fed monetary policy indicates more money in circulation, which is beneficial for risk-on assets.

The U.S. monetary base represents currency and reserves within the banking system. Higher interest rates typically aim to stabilize or decrease this figure. By diminishing the appeal for businesses to borrow and grow, this contractionary economic strategy usually helps control inflation.

Some analysts speculate that Bitcoins potential bull run in 2024 relies heavily on the Fed transitioning from a contractionary to an expansive monetary policy. This shift could be prompted by inflation falling below 3% or signs of an economic downturn. Therefore, if interest rates remain elevated for an extended period, the likelihood of a Bitcoin surge decreases.

Excessive leverage has also caused unease among Bitcoin investors, particularly as the open interest in BTC futures hit a record high in March, increasing from $22.2 billion on Feb. 25 to $35.5 billion on March 14. Moreover, the imbalance in leverage demand led to distortions that are rarely sustainable.

Perpetual contracts, also known as inverse swaps, incorporate a rate that is recalculated every eight hours. A positive funding rate signals a rising demand for leverage among those holding long positions.

An unusually high funding rate of 0.09% was observed on March 11, equivalent to 1.7% per week. This indicator declined as bulls faced $370 million in liquidations from March 13 to March 15. While these figures may seem significant at first glance, considering Bitcoins open interest is at $34.8 billion, it translates to approximately 1% of positions being forcibly closed.

Interestingly, Bitcoins funding rate dropped to 0.25% per week on March 15, considered neutral in a market where traders are typically bullish. This indicates that there was no excessive demand for short positions, suggesting that bears were hesitant to bet against Bitcoin prices falling below $65,000.

Related: Bitcoin to enter pre-halving danger zone, but crypto CEOs remain bullish

To verify whether the decreased demand for leveraged long positions accurately reflects market sentiment, it's essential to compare this data with the demand for stablecoins in China, a critical indicator of retail investors entering or exiting the crypto markets. The USD Coin (USDC) premium measures the difference between the value of USDC in peer-to-peer transactions and the official U.S. dollar rate.

The USDC premium has been above 3% for the past week, indicating that the stablecoin is trading at a value higher than its pegged rate. Most notably, this premium has not fallen below its fair value even amid the recent price correction to $64,545 on March 17.

This trend signifies ongoing demand for cryptocurrencies in China, supporting the positive Bitcoin funding rate favoring long positions and indicating no signs of a bearish trend or investor apprehension.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

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Is Bitcoin ready for a new all-time high now that the excessive leverage is gone? - Cointelegraph

Solana climbs higher while bitcoin, ether prices cool – Blockworks

Bitcoin and ether held steady Monday morning in New York after their selloff over the weekend, while Solana continued its rally.

After dipping to $64,500 over the weekend, bitcoin moved 2% higher Monday, according to Coinbase, to around $68,000.

Bitcoins (BTC) weekly low on Sunday comes after a historic run for bitcoin last week, when the crypto posted a new all-time high of $73,835, per Coinbase. Analysts say the price moves are not surprising.

A pullback was to be expected considering Bitcoins steep climb over the past few weeks. If there were any surprises, its that the correction was a mild 12%, as compared with the 20 to 30% dips weve seen in the past, Lucas Kiely, chief investment officer of digital wealth platform Yield App, said. In part, this showcases Bitcoins current resilience to the macro environment.

Read from our opinion section: As bitcoins price soars, Im having fun and staying poor

Ether (ETH) was also relatively quiet, gaining 1% to trade around $3,600 after briefly topping $4,000 last week. The cryptocurrency has yet to surpass its 2021 record price of $4,721, according to Coinbase.

Meanwhile, Solana (SOL) bounced another 16% Monday, per Coinbase, positioning it nearly 40% higher over the week.

The run comes as Solana MEV startup Jito Labs announced earlier this month that it will suspend mempool functionality offered by the Jito Block Engine. The company cited an increased amount of sandwich attacks on the Solana blockchain.

To mitigate network congestion from spam, Jito introduced an external mempool solution for Solana, effectively adding a 200ms mempool phase within the 400ms block period, Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy Digital, said in a note.

The introduction of the mempool, however, also opened the door for more toxic forms of MEV like sandwiching that harm the user experience, ultimately resulting in Jito shuttering the service, Thorn added.

Looking ahead, traders are waiting for this weeks main event: the Federal Reserves rate decision on Wednesday. While markets overwhelmingly anticipate rates will stay the same, the Federal Open Markets Committee will also be releasing its economic projections, which could give insight into what to expect for the remainder of the year and in 2025.

In the latest release, the Fed lowered its forecast for end-of-year fed funds from 5.1% to 4.6%, which the market celebrated, Noelle Acheson, author of the Crypto is Macro Now newsletter, said. Its likely that they will be raised again, if not this week then at the June meeting, since inflation seems somewhat stuck.

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Solana climbs higher while bitcoin, ether prices cool - Blockworks

Vanguard’s perspective on bitcoin ETFs – Vanguard

Tim Buckley: It's in the news spot: bitcoin ETFs. A question came in, "Hey, we know you're not offering one. Have you changed your mind? What would it take for you to change your mind?" We don't plan to, and we're not going to change our minds around this unless the asset class changes.

For why, first of all, we don't believe it belongs, like a bitcoin ETF belongs in a long-term portfolio of someone saving for their retirement. It's a speculative asset.

Greg Davis: That's exactly it.

Tim Buckley: And the funds that we offer invest in asset classes that actually have underlying cash flow. So like we mentioned stocks, you're buying the forward earnings of a company.

Greg Davis: Of a company, that's right.

Tim Buckley: And that bond, I mean

Greg Davis: Has coupon and principal payment.

Tim Buckley: Hey, you're going to pay me back and you're going to pay me something for lending you the money. So they both could be valued. And for us, I don't understand why they would rise up in a portfolio and the role that we're playing we can model them. Something like bitcoin is just too volatile and it's not a store of value. It hasn't been and it's very volatile. When stocks got hammered in the recent crisis, bitcoin went right with them. And so it is speculative. Really tough to think about how it belongs in a long-term portfolio.

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Vanguard's perspective on bitcoin ETFs - Vanguard

The best spot Bitcoin ETFs – Quartz

Photo: Carlo Allegri ( Reuters )

BlackRock, the worlds largest asset manager with $10 trillion in assets under management, is a prominent leader in the exchange-traded fund industry. It launched iShares Bitcoin Trust (NASDAQ: IBIT) in January 2024, which recently saw a record $849 million inflow. Currently, it holds 204,000 Bitcoin, worth around $15 billion at current prices.

The iShares Bitcoin Trust has implemented a fee waiver scheme to reduce the initial investment cost and entice more investors. For the first 12 months of trading or until the fund assets reach $5 billion (whichever comes first), the annual fee will be only 0.12%. Following that period, the fee will increase to 0.25%, which is roughly in line with other competitors.

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The best spot Bitcoin ETFs - Quartz

Sheriff’s office warns residents to beware of Bitcoin scams – Placer County

Published March 14, 2024

Our property crimes unit has observed a concerning increase in scams revolving around transferring money into bitcoins. In a recent incident, the victim was convinced by a caller that their email had been compromised and their bank account was implicated in the breach. The victim was then directed to what they believed was their bank, where they were persuaded to transfer $15,000 into Bitcoin under the guise of protecting their funds. Subsequently, the victim received a call from someone posing as the FBI, who convinced them to transfer an additional $8,000 for the same reason. It wasn't until after the second transfer that the victim grew suspicious and reached out to the Sheriffs Office.

These scams are regrettably prevalent and often highly successful. If you ever receive emails or calls alleging an urgent situation that requires transferring money, STOP immediately and contact law enforcement. Neither law enforcement nor legitimate banking institutions will ever ask you to transfer your funds into Bitcoin or gift cards. This should serve as a major red flag indicating something is amiss.

Please assist us in spreading awareness about these types of scams to ensure that your loved ones do not fall prey to them. Together, we can combat these fraudulent activities and safeguard our community's financial well-being.

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Sheriff's office warns residents to beware of Bitcoin scams - Placer County

Bitcoin ‘dumb money sells’ as whales, sharks add 328K BTC in a month – Cointelegraph

Bitcoin is splitting hodler sentiment near all-time highs as coins migrate to larger players.

Data from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode shows that Bitcoin (BTC) whales are furiously accumulating BTC at current prices.

Bitcoin investors have vastly different impressions of the current bull market, and the latest on-chain data confirms it.

Glassnodes coverage of the net position change for various BTC hodler cohorts draws a clear distinction between larger and smaller allocations.

The figures were uploaded to X by popular commentator account Bitcoin Munger this week.

What you observe in nature is much like what you observe in markets, he argued in the post.

Glassnode shows that both Bitcoin whales (entities holding 1,000 BTC or more) and sharks (entities holding between 100 BTC and 1,000 BTC) are fighting to accumulate coins.

Based on flows between whale wallets and exchanges, whales held around 84,000 BTC more than 30 days prior as of March 17.

Sharks, the data for whom is not focused on exchanges, began majorly adding to their exposure at the end of February. As of March 17, their 30-day net position change was 244,000 BTC.

Both classes strongly contrast with Bitcoin fish those with between 10 BTC and 100 BTC. These have seen the distribution of assets throughout this month.

For Bitcoin Munger, the conclusion is clear.

Smart money is buying, while dumb money sells, he wrote.

As Cointelegraph continues to report, Bitcoin is currently in flux as old all-time highs refuse to be flipped to support without a fight.

Related: FOMC meets halving danger zone 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week

While institutional inflows continue, price discovery has only existed for a brief period this month.

Comparing the current price cycle to history, however, Bitcoin Munger was unfazed.

Relative to historical cycles, the fun hasn't even started yet, he argued.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

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Bitcoin 'dumb money sells' as whales, sharks add 328K BTC in a month - Cointelegraph

Bitcoin price prediction: What is the impact of halving on BTC By Investing.com – Investing.com

As once again captures attention, the concept of "halving" has emerged as a crucial factor influencing the cryptocurrency's value and market dynamics. As a result, many market participants are providing their latest bitcoin price prediction.

Understanding the impact of halving on Bitcoin is essential for investors. Bitcoin halving occurs every four years. It is an event that halves mining rewards and reduces Bitcoin supply. As a result, the impact is hotly debated, with the leading cryptocurrency usually rising after the event.

After previous halvings, the price of Bitcoin has generally risen not long after. However, it is rare to see BTC hit a new all-time high ahead of the event.

Bitcoin hit a new high of well over $73,000 last week, although it pulled back to above the $64,000 mark over the weekend. Nevertheless, it is now back over $68,000.

For the year-to-date, Bitcoin is up more than 61%, while in the last 12 months, it has risen more than 152%.

Speaking to Investing.com, Yuya Takemura, Founder of Axys Holding, noted that Bitcoin halving events typically lead to the price rising.

The next halving in 2024 may follow this trend, possibly causing a significant price increase in 2025, said Takemura. Considering Bitcoin's past performance and increasing adoption, a significant price increase in 2025 is plausible. Factors such as limited supply, growing institutional interest, and wider acceptance in payment systems play a role.

Takemura also recognized that the global recognition through ETF approvals, Gen Z's growing participation, and blockchain adoption by authoritative entities could impact the price. However, he cautioned that the Bitcoin market is volatile and susceptible to global economic conditions.

Meanwhile, Menno Martens, a crypto specialist and product manager at VanEck, told Investing.com that historical trends show that Bitcoin tends to rally before, during, and after halving events.

However, he said, It should be noted that there are some exclusions, for example, Bitcoin also sees significant corrections of over 82% and 80% down during the 3rd and 2nd cycle respectively.

Bitcoins price recovery to previous ATH seems to be faster than previous cycles. Bitcoins price is above the previous ATH already, suggesting this cycle may be different and making a significant correction likely, cautioned Martens.

He believes that what sets this particular halving apart is the introduction of a Spot Bitcoin ETF in the US market.

While similar products, like the VanEck Bitcoin ETN, have been available since 2020, the launch of a Spot ETF in the US is seen by many as a watershed moment for Bitcoin, akin to the IPO of a major asset, he added. Comparisons are drawn to the effect of ETFs on the gold market, where an eight-year bull run followed the launch of gold ETFs.

Furthermore, Martens explains that ETFs play a significant role in market dynamics, holding over 4.2% of circulating Bitcoin and absorbing a considerable portion of newly minted coins daily. As a result, he believes the absorption may intensify post-halving, potentially reducing the available Bitcoin supply for non-ETF investors.

If demand remains high, as observed in recent weeks, this could theoretically lead to significant price appreciation, he said. The risk is that Bitcoin could also see significant corrections.

Elsewhere, in a recent research note, analysts at JMP Securities said they believe Bitcoin price could reach a high of $280,000 within the next three years, driven by the anticipated Bitcoin ETF inflows.

We estimate that after ~$10B inflows to date, two months into launch, flows will actually continue to grow materially from here over the next few years as the ETF approval is just the beginning of a longer process of capital allocation, JMP wrote.

The investment firm calculates around $220 billion of incremental flows into Bitcoin ETFs over the next three years.

We estimate a current multiplier of ~25x, which on our flow estimate would equate to an incremental $280K per Bitcoin, they added.

Meanwhile, Bernstein said it is now more convinced about its $150K price target for Bitcoin.

Bitcoin today is at $71K, we expected this to break out post-halving. We built Bitcoin institutional flows in our estimates to arrive at Bitcoin price. We estimated $10Bn inflows for 2024 and another $60Bn for 2025, the firm explained.

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Bitcoin price prediction: What is the impact of halving on BTC By Investing.com - Investing.com

FOMC meets halving ‘danger zone’ 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week – Cointelegraph

Bitcoin (BTC) starts a new week in recovery mode after an unusually volatile weekend sparked heavy losses.

BTC price action is struggling to reclaim old all-time highs after days of sustained selling pressure can bulls turn the tide?

A key macroeconomic week ensures that unpredictable trading conditions will continue as both crypto and risk assets await cues from the United States Federal Reserve. The battle against inflation rages on, and more recent data suggests that inflationary forces are not giving up without a fight.

With BTC/USD acting within a critical zone that must be reclaimed for price discovery to continue, there is everything to play for this week.

Bitcoin is now just one month away from its next block subsidy halving and could be repeating history with a classic pre-halving retracement.

Cointelegraph takes a closer look at these issues and others at hand in the weekly rundown of what could impact BTC price action in the coming days and beyond.

A brutal weekend for bulls hoping for a break soon placed Bitcoin at its lowest levels since March 6.

Bouncing near $64,500, BTC/USD then produced a solid recovery, almost reaching the $69,000 mark before encountering fresh losses at the weekly close.

At the time of writing, the pair circled $68,000, according to data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView, still unable to crack the area well known as the site of its old all-time highs from 2021.

Analyzing the current setup, [popular trader Skew flagged the 21-period exponential moving average (EMA) on the four-hour chart as a line to reclaim next. Bitcoins relative strength index (RSI) readings on four-hour timeframes, currently at 48.2, should also return above 50.

Still need a strong close above 4H 21EMA & RSI above 50 In confluence with reclaim of $69K - $70K, part of his latest post on Xread.

Bitcoin selling pressure was nonetheless unusually intense for a weekend with the absence of institutional trading.

One theory circulating online put the trend down to a single hedge funds position unwinding. Here, the entity may have been long BTC while simultaneously shorting the stock of tech firm MicroStrategy. When this was liquidated, the fund had no choice but to sell around $1 billion in BTC to cover the losses.

Also all week shrimp crabs and fish selling, investor Fred Krueger added in part of an explanation on X, referring to additional offloading by smaller BTC holders.

Despite the setback, Bitcoin nonetheless managed its second-highest weekly close ever. At just below $68,400, the largest cryptocurrency finished the week down a mere $600 versus its previous close.

New week, with Bitcoin above the highest resistance level on the chart, popular trader Jelle wrote in an optimistic post.

Some of the latest market data captures the extent of the flush that occurred across exchanges in the wake of near two-week lows.

Numbers from monitoring resource CoinGlass show days of long liquidations totaling more than $300 million.

On largest global exchange Binance, perpetual swaps now have little liquidity around price, with a wall of bid support only in place at $66,266. Sellers lie in wait above $69,000.

A side effect of the weekend came in the form of a reset in both open interest and funding rates, the latter still overly positive but a fraction of the recent peaks.

Too much bearish sentiment on my timeline. Bitcoin is trading $5k below its ATH, James Van Straten, research and data analyst at crypto insights firm CryptoSlate, responded.

Van Straten noted that funding rates had not been negative since September 2023, and he highly doubted that those would return.

We have been and are in a bullish structure since October, so positive funding continues, with occasional resets when we get too frothy, he commented.

Bitcoin miners are on course to enjoy its final month of 6.25 BTC block subsidies before Aprils halving.

The debate around how the event will impact BTC price behavior continues a new all-time high, after all, has never preceded a halving but instead came months after it.

As Cointelegraph reported, some believe that the current journey to all-time highs could be completed sooner than during other price cycles. Around the halving itself, however, Bitcoin may still stick to the classic playbook lower, then higher.

In recent content on the topic, popular trader and analyst Rekt Capital spelled out the risks for hodlers going forward.

In 2 days, Bitcoin will officially enter the Danger Zone (orange) where historical Pre-Halving Retraces have begun, he warned on March 17 alongside an illustrative chart.

In halving years gone by, this danger zone produced corrections of up to 40% far beyond the current maximum drawdown from recent all-time highs of around $73,700.

Bitcoin is slowly transitioning away from its Pre-Halving Rally phase and into its Pre-Halving Retrace phase, Rekt Capital added.

He further noted that despite consistent buying by the U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), standard cycle phenomena are still playing out.

A crunch week for risk assets centers around the Feds next decision on interest rates and accompanying commentary from Chair Jerome Powell.

The next meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will conclude on March 20 and forms a classic risk-asset volatility catalyst.

That said, markets are expecting few surprises this time persistent inflation has removed the chance of a rate cut, and even subsequent FOMC gatherings are not thought to be apt to buck the trend.

The latest estimates from CME Groups FedWatch Tool put the chances of a cut at the FOMC meeting at just 8%.

Its official: For the first time this year, markets now only see 3 interest rate cuts in 2024, trading resource The Kobeissi Letter wrote in ananalysis of broader FedWatch data.

Powell will make two speaking appearances this week, with the second on March 22. Market observers will closely watch the language used as cues for future policy moves.

All eyes are on Fed guidance at this weeks Fed meeting. With 2 months of rising CPI inflation, the Fed has to be concerned, Kobeissi continued.

While sentiment remains in the extreme greed zone, according to the market sentiment gauge, the Crypto Fear and Greed Index, some hodlers are voting with their wallets.

Related:How low can BTC price go? Bitcoin analysis points to $45K

Profit-taking on long-held coins has spiked significantly, the latest data from on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant confirms.

Long-term holders (LTHs) entities hodling coins for at least 155 days have distributed nearly 600,000 BTC, or around $40 billion, over the past month.

Discussing the phenomenon on X, CryptoQuant contributors attributed a portion of the selling to the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust.

As Cointelegraph reported, Bitcoin miners have also stepped up sellingin 2024.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

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FOMC meets halving 'danger zone' 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week - Cointelegraph

Bitcoin falls below $70,000 in overnight sell-off – CNBC

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CNBC Crypto World features the latest news and daily trading updates from the digital currency markets and provides viewers with a look at what's ahead with high-profile interviews, explainers, and unique stories from the ever-changing crypto industry. On today's show, Thomas Perfumo, Kraken's head of strategy, weighs in on what's behind bitcoin's moves lower after hitting new records over the past two weeks.

11:23

Fri, Mar 15 20243:12 PM EDT

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Bitcoin falls below $70,000 in overnight sell-off - CNBC