Category Archives: Bitcoin
The history of bitcoin halvings and why this time might look different – Blockworks
Historically, every Bitcoin halving a disinflationary mechanism inscribed in the currencys code by Satoshi Nakamoto has come a year or two before a new all-time high.
This is partly because a halving cuts the block reward paid to miners in half, reducing the number of new bitcoin being created and theoretically making bitcoin more scarce.
For example, with the latest halving to come, the block reward will fall from 6.25 bitcoin (BTC) to 3.125 BTC.
The three previous Bitcoin halvings occurred in the run-up to an all-time high, which then gave way to a price drawdown until the next halving helped ignite another rally, according to some market observers.
Read more: The next bitcoin halving is coming. Heres what you need to know.
But the upcoming halving has broken that trend. For the first time in its history, bitcoin set an all-time price high in the immediate run-up to the halving when it topped $70,000 this month.
Blockworks examined how bitcoins price responded to prior halvings. Heres what we found.
Nearly four years after Bitcoins genesis block was mined, the network underwent its first halving.
Bitcoins nascent community was unsure whether the supply slow-down would drive prices up, or if the halving was already priced in, as a then-teenaged Vitalik Buterin laid out in Bitcoin Magazine at the time. Bitcoiners gathered at meet-ups around the globe to ring in the halving.
Bitcoin, which had been trading for around $12 in the lead-up to the first halving in November 2012, jumped to $229 by April 2013, then climbed to roughly $1,132 by the following November, according to TradingView.
In the wake of the collapse of the Japan-based exchange Mt Gox, bitcoins price would toil away in the hundreds of dollars range for the next three years.
By 2016, a host of new cryptocurrencies had cropped up. Shortly after the second halving, Ethereum would undergo a hard fork in the wake of the catastrophic DAO hack.
Bitcoiners remained split on how the second halving would affect bitcoins price. Right now, Im disappointed, a user wrote on the BitcoinTalk forum a few hours before the block reward was cut in half.
Read more: How the halving could impact bitcoins price
Bitcoins price gradually rose for a few months after the second halving before picking up momentum in May 2017. By December 2017, bitcoin hit a new high of roughly $19,188, a market event that came a year and a half after the halving.
By the third halving, bitcoin was more than a decade old and had become more of a known commodity.
Hey guys I think bitcoin is halving today, not sure if youve heard, a new crypto exchange founder named Sam Bankman-Fried tweeted. The markets publication of TD Ameritrade published a piece wondering whether the halving was already priced in.
Once again, it wasnt.
Bitcoins price rose from around $8,500 at the May 2020 halving to over $40,000 by January 2021. Bitcoin topped $63,000 in April before peaking above $67,000 in November 2021, nine years after the first halving.
It seems like a fools errand to question whether the next bitcoin halving will lead to a price run at this point, but the circumstances are noticeably different this time around.
When the decade-long fight for the Securities and Exchange Commissions approval on spot bitcoin ETFs resolved in January, bitcoin embarked on an ongoing bull run to an all-time high above $73,000.
This is uncharted territory for halvings, which previously came with bitcoins price far below its prior peak.
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The history of bitcoin halvings and why this time might look different - Blockworks
Bitcoin price: Standard Chartered says $150000 level in 2024 ‘now looks likely’ By Investing.com – Investing.com
price has continued to move higher in March, which is in line with historical trends heading into the much-anticipated halving event.
BTC price recently surged to over $73,000 correcting to below $65,000 on profit taking. At the time of writing, Bitcoin price exchanged hands at around $67,500.
A year-to-date increase stands at more than 60% while the 12-month jump has exceeded 150%.
Bitcoins price recovery to previous ATH seems to be faster than previous cycles. Bitcoins price is above the previous ATH already, suggesting this cycle may be different and making a significant correction likely, Menno Martens, Crypto Specialist and Product Manager at VanEck, said to Investing.com.
The recent surge in Bitcoin price is partly driven by the growing demand for spot Bitcoin Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs), offering investors a less risky way to engage with cryptocurrency.
These ETFs have seen a significant influx of investment, drawing attention for their potential in portfolio diversification. Spot Bitcoin ETFs differ from regular Bitcoin ETFs by allowing direct exposure to Bitcoin itself, rather than futures contracts.
Managed by firms that issue shares of their Bitcoin holdings, these ETFs provide a bridge for traditional investors to enter the cryptocurrency space by purchasing shares on conventional stock exchanges, bypassing the need to directly hold or manage the cryptocurrency.
Another reason why Bitcoin prices are rallying is related to the upcoming halving event. A Bitcoin halving is an event where the reward for mining Bitcoin transactions is cut by 50%, happening roughly every four years.
This mechanism progressively decreases the speed at which new bitcoins are created and introduced into the market, aiming to halt the production of new bitcoins by around the year 2140.
Historically, Bitcoin halving events, which occur approximately every four years, have led to an increase in price, Yuya Takemura, Founder of Axys Holding, told Investing.com.
The next halving in 2024 may follow this trend, possibly causing a significant price increase in 2025.
Speaking about other factors that are helping Bitcoin price to rally, Takemura also highlighted increased participation by Generation Z, and the adoption of blockchain technology by governments and major financial institutions.
While Takemura acknowledges recent analyst projections that Bitcoin price could , he also warned about market's volatility and susceptibility to global economic conditions.
Investing.com recently wrote about JMP Securities saying Bitcoin price could hit over the next three years as ETF inflows accelerate.
We estimate that after ~$10B in flows to date, two months into launch, flows will actually continue to grow materially from here over the next few years as the ETF approval is just the beginning of a longer process of capital allocation, said JMP.
Today, British brokerage firm Standard Chartered (OTC:) came out with its own forecast. According to their analysts, the $150,000 level now looks likely. Hence, the bank raised its price target on Bitcoin to $150,000 from $100,000 to reflect the more rapid pass-through from ETF inflows to the BTC price to date.
Moreover, Standard Chartered analysts see the ongoing Bitcoin price rally continuing.
USD 200,000 is the correct end-2025 price level for BTC, in line with our previous price estimate, and that it is likely to be the new midpoint for a sideways trading range at that time.
It also suggests that an overshoot to USD 250,000 is likely at some point in 2025 if ETF inflows continue apace and/or reserve managers buy BTC.
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Bitcoin price: Standard Chartered says $150000 level in 2024 'now looks likely' By Investing.com - Investing.com
Bitcoin is A Few Days Away From Entering The Danger Zone Analyst – TradingView
Key points:
According to Rekt Capital, a renowned crypto analyst on X, the current bull cycle will retain the fundamental trend pattern preceding Bitcoin halving despite significant impact from the ETF. The analyst acknowledged the newly launched ETFs have played a role in how the Bitcoin market has developed. However, he believes there will be a pre-halving retracement, like in the previous bull cycles.
In one of his posts, Rekt Capital predicted Bitcoin is a few days away from entering the Danger Zone. According to him, the Danger Zone is where the pre-halving retracement begins. He used historical data to explain that Bitcoin performs pre-halving retracements 14 to 28 days before the halving event.
To further explain his observation, the renowned analyst showed that Bitcoin retraced by 20% in the days leading to the 2020 Bitcoin halving. Similarly, before the 2016 halving event, the flagship crypto pulled back by 40% after an initial rally.
At the time of Rekt Capitals post, the Bitcoin halving event was 31 days away, and the pioneer crypto had retraced by 11%. BTC had dropped from the recently achieved all-time high (ATH) of $73,794 to around $65,000, according to data from TradingView.
The famous analyst accompanied his prediction with a chart analysis suggesting Bitcoin could experience further price drops in a post-halving re-accumulation phase. He also revealed the post-halving accumulation would prepare the topmost cryptocurrency for a post-halving parabolic upside movement.
Bitcoin traded for $65,469 at the time of writing amid a general market downtime. The newly launched ETFs impact on the current bull run is significant, especially in pushing BTC to a new ATH before the halving event. That is a situation the crypto market did not experience until the current bull cycle.
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Bitcoin is A Few Days Away From Entering The Danger Zone Analyst - TradingView
US prediction market Kalshi to take bets on Bitcoin and Ether – Cointelegraph
The United States-based prediction market Kalshi is preparing to launch bets on the price action of major cryptocurrencies Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH).
Kalshi is launching prediction contracts for its clients, enabling bets on Bitcoin and Ether price movements, according to its website.
At the time of writing, Kalshis Crypto website section enables clients to bet on at least three Bitcoin contracts, including a contract on when Bitcoin will hit $100,000.
The contract currently lists 10 available monthly markets, with the closest one betting that Bitcoin will reach the value on March 28. The latest available bet is by Dec. 31, 2024.
Other contracts include a prediction on how high Bitcoin will reach in 2024 and one on the daily BTC price. The annual price prediction offers five contracts from $75,000 to $150,000. The daily prediction spans 15 markets, starting from $66,750 and ending at $70,250.
Kalshis Ether predictions offer clients to bet only on the annual and daily price events.
While the bets are related to cryptocurrency prices, Kalshis platform will only accept U.S. dollars for placing the bets. As with most of Kalshis bets, the crypto bets will mostly be yes or no across different possible scenarios.
According to industry media, Kalshi clients will be able to place the first bets on Bitcoin and Ether as early as March 18.
Related: Bitcoin to enter pre-halving danger zone, but crypto CEOs remain bullish
Cointelegraph reached out to Kalshi for comments regarding the launch but had yet to receive a response at the time of publication.
Founded in 2018, Kalshi is a financial exchange offering event contracts, allowing users to bet on certain events in the future, including those related to the economy, politics, health, tech and science, and others. The platform is regulated as a designated contract market under the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
Bitcoin price predictions have been growing increasingly popular since the cryptocurrency posted a new all-time high above $73,000 on March 13.
Binance CEO Richard Tengpredicted on March 17 that Bitcoin would continue its record-breaking rally and rise above $80,000 by the end of the year. Teng expressed confidence in the success of Bitcoin amid the optimism around the massive adoption of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds in the United States.
Crypto.com CEO Kris Marszalekpredictedthat the total crypto market capitalization will surge 177% to reach $7.5 trillion by 2025.
Magazine: Is measuring blockchain transactions per second (TPS) stupid in 2024? Big Questions
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US prediction market Kalshi to take bets on Bitcoin and Ether - Cointelegraph
What’s Behind the Bitcoin Price Surge? Vibes, Mostly – WIRED
The latest surge in the price of bitcoin is increasing the clamor around it, says Dal Bianco, drawing in yet more speculators and creating a self-reinforcing cycle. Likewise, when collective confidence in the prospect of further price growth falters, she says, the resultant downturn can be equally sudden. Under these conditions, demand can vanish as rapidly as it forms.
On March 3, Michael Green, chief strategist at asset management firm Simplify, entered into a wager with Peter McCormack, host of the podcast What Bitcoin Did. They were betting on the price of bitcoin. Green wagered $20,000 that bitcoin would not reach a price of $100,000 per coin by the end of the year. McCormack wagered $100,000 that it would.
The bet, Green says, was in part motivated by a desire to highlight areas of weakness in the economic theory presented as dogma by bitcoin evangelists. He takes issue with the way bitcoin is being sold to the investing public as a store of value designed ultimately to be the currency of the future, he says. I think that is a bunch of economic nonsense. Because the supply of bitcoin will shrink steadily over time as people lose access to irrecoverable wallets, Green argues, it cannot support a system of credit, because the cost of borrowing will eventually rise to a point that almost no one can afford.
In January, US regulators approved the first batch of bitcoin exchange-traded funds, which give people a way to invest in the cryptocurrency through a brokerage, as they would a regular stock. The arrival of bitcoin ETFs is said to have catalyzed the latest surge in price, by unlocking a wave of pent-up demand among investorsboth institutions and regular peoplepreviously unable or unwilling to deal with a crypto exchange or risk storing crypto manually themselves. In approving the new bitcoin funds, says Green, regulators have incentivized financial institutions for whom the ETFs represent a new source of revenue to spend tons of money on marketing to drive demand, and in turn disincentivized any emphasis on deficiencies in the logic of bitcoinomics.
The belief in the future potential of bitcoin has become religious, says Green. That missionary zeal is more likely to influence the price, says Green, than any economic mechanism built into the system. Even if McCormack were to lose the wager, he says, it could be chalked up as a fruitful marketing expense. McCormack told WIRED the wager with Green was not a marketing stunt. I did the bet to prove him wrong, he says.
The influence of evangelism on the price of bitcoin limits the opportunity for good-faith debate about the prospects of the Bitcoin system, says Angel.Once you drink the Kool-Aid, you have a powerful financial incentive to preach to the world that bitcoin is the most wonderful thing, he says. If there were a Nobel prize in marketing, it should be given to Satoshi Nakamoto.
Bitcoins biggest boosters embrace that dynamic as well. Bitcoin price appreciation is an advertisement, says Mow. Investors buy in on the prospect of richesand then fall down the rabbit hole themselves, creating a new generation of believers to spread the Bitcoin gospel.
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What's Behind the Bitcoin Price Surge? Vibes, Mostly - WIRED
Shiba Inu (SHIB) Price Prediction After Bitcoin Halving – Watcher Guru
Bitcoin skyrocketed in price touching a new high of $73,737 during mid-March this month. The phenomenal spike also led Shiba Inu to hit a new yearly high of $0.00004282 at the same period. The sudden spurt in price for Shiba Inu comes on the heels of the Bitcoin halving event.
Also Read: Shiba Inu: Investment of $4,400 Grows To $50 Million Today
For the uninitiated, the Bitcoin halving event is scheduled to take place next month on April 20, 2024. The event will make the supply of BTC cut into half making the cryptocurrency scarcely available. The development will make Bitcoin further shoot up in price as the demand will be high with limited supply. The move will make not only Bitcoin but also Shiba Inu and other leading cryptocurrencies sustainably scale up in the indices.
Leading on-chain metrics and price prediction firm CoinCodex has painted a rosy picture for Shiba Inu. According to the price prediction, SHIB could rise by another 225% on the heels of the Bitcoin halving. The forecast highlights that Shiba Inu could breach its all-time high of $0.00008616 and reach a new ATH of $0.00009 level.
Also Read: Cryptocurrency: 3 Coins Under $1 To Buy This Week For Profits
Thats an uptick and return on investment (ROI) of approximately 226% from its current price of $0.00002783. Therefore, an investment of $10,000 in SHIB could turn into $32,600 next month during Bitcoin halving if the prediction turns accurate. If the token holds on to the momentum, it could also delete its fourth zero and hit the $0.0001 mark.
Also Read:Shiba Inu: How To Make $1 Million If SHIBs Price Hits $0.001
However, the cryptocurrency market is highly volatile and there is no guarantee that SHIB could spike 225% in 30 days. It is advised to do thorough research before taking an entry position in the cryptocurrency market currently. Trade at your own risk as the Bitcoin halving event could make the markets turn volatile.
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Shiba Inu (SHIB) Price Prediction After Bitcoin Halving - Watcher Guru
Bitcoin price tops $60,000 for first time since 2021 – Financial Times
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The price of bitcoin has climbed above $60,000 for the first time in more than two years, as a lightning rally puts the worlds biggest cryptocurrency within touching distance of its all-time high.
Bitcoin rose as much as 12.6 per cent to hit $63,968 on Wednesday, before falling back to about $60,000. The rally has brought its gains to 42 per cent in the first two months of this year.
The rapid ascent has revived memories of the crypto bull market that pushed the token to its record peak of nearly $69,000 in November 2021, as investors pile in amid fear of missing out on further price rises.
This is insane, said Timo Lehes, co-founder of blockchain company Swarm, adding that he expected more money to flow into the token.
When people see these kinds of increases in a short period of time...then it just draws in people and Fomo does kick in, he said.
In January, US regulators approved the launch of spot bitcoin exchange traded funds by mainstream asset managers including BlackRock and Invesco, paving the way for an influx of new cash from investors looking to speculate on the cryptocurrency through a regulated vehicle.
The 11 funds now hold 303,000 bitcoins, according to K33 Research, worth $18bn and equivalent to about 1.5 per cent of the total bitcoin supply.
We could see the all-time high being broken any day now, said Simon Peters, an analyst at trading firm eToro. The driving force behind it is without a doubt the [bitcoin funds].
The surge in bitcoin price comes amid a wider rally in traditional financial markets.
Chipmaker Nvidias blockbuster results have fed an investor frenzy over the potential of artificial intelligence technology, helping push US and European stocks to all-time highs in the past week.
Crypto trading platform Coinbase blamed traffic that was 10 times normal for disruptions to some users, including displays of a zero balance in their accounts.
We appreciate your patience, Coinbase said. Were beginning to see improvement in customer trading. Due to increased traffic, some customers may still see errors in login, sends, receives and with some payment methods. Rest assured your funds are safe.
The price of bitcoin has soared despite US regulators clampdown on the biggest crypto companies and continued scepticism about the token. Last week, European Central Bank officials lambasted the cryptocurrency, saying the fair value of bitcoin is still zero.
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For society, a renewed boom-bust cycle of bitcoin is a dire perspective. And the collateral damage will be massive, they wrote, adding that the tokens price is not an indicator of its sustainability.
The crypto industry has been boosted by the belief that it is moving on from the scandals of recent years. The Securities and Exchange Commission hit Binance, the worlds biggest crypto exchange, with a record $4.3bn fine in November for crimes including failing to protect against money laundering and breaching international sanctions.
Binances rival, FTX, collapsed in 2022 and its founder Sam Bankman-Fried was found guilty on seven charges of fraud and money laundering. This week, his legal team argued for the former crypto tycoon to spend just a few years in prison, rather than the 100-year sentence he could face.
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Bitcoin price tops $60,000 for first time since 2021 - Financial Times
News updates from February 28: Bitcoin breaks through $60,000; US GDP growth revised down – Financial Times
US GDP: Economists expect the second estimate for fourth-quarter economic growth to come in at 3.3 per cent, unchanged from the advance figure, and down from a 4.9 per cent increase in the third quarter.
Salesforce: The cloud-based software companys revenue is expected to jump nearly 10 per cent in the fourth quarter, according to analysts polled by LSEG. Investors will be keen to learn more about demand for its software and artificial intelligence products. The company is forecast to swing to a profit of $1.29 a share after a loss of 10 cents a share a year earlier.
Other companies: TJX Companies will report earnings before the bell. Paramount Global, AMC Entertainment, and HP will report after the bell.
Fedspeak: Susan Collins, president of the Federal Reserves Boston branch, will participate in a fireside chat at an event hosted by Dartmouth Colleges Tuck School of Business. John Williams, president of the New York Fed, will participate in a discussion organised by the Long Island Association.
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News updates from February 28: Bitcoin breaks through $60,000; US GDP growth revised down - Financial Times
US gov’t moved $922 million of seized Bitcoin after BTC price broke $60,000 – Cointelegraph
The United States government transferred $922 million worth of Bitcoin from two cryptocurrency wallets that held funds seized from Bitfinex in 2016.
The U.S. governments transfers occurred the same day Bitcoin (BTC) breached $60,000 for the first time in over two years on Feb. 28. Bitcoin rose 5.52% in the 24 hours leading up to 9:45 pm UTC to trade at $62,507. The worlds first cryptocurrency is up over 20% in the past week.
The first test transfer, worth only 1 Bitcoin ($60,200 during the transfer), occurred at 3:39 pm on Feb. 28. Shortly after, the U.S. government-labeled wallet sent a second transaction worth 2,817 Bitcoin ($172.74 million), a third transaction worth 0.01 Bitcoin ($613.35) and a fourth transaction worth 12,267 Bitcoin ($748.46 million), according to Arkham Intelligence data.
The government seized the funds in 2016 after Bitfinex was hacked for approximately 119,754 BTC, worth over $7.4 billion at its current price.
The transfers occurred a day after Ilya Lichtenstein, a hacker who stole and laundered over $4.5 billion worth of Bitcoin from the Bitfinex exchange, appeared in a Washington court detailing how he pulled off one the worlds largest Bitcoin heists.
Lichtenstein reportedly told a jury on Feb. 27 that he had access to Bitfinexs systems for several months while also hacking individual accounts at other exchanges like Coinbase and Kraken, according to a Bloomberg report.
Lichtenstein and his rapper wife, Heather Morgan (also known as Razzlekhan), were arrested in February 2022. At the time, the U.S. government alleged they conspired to launder $4.5 billion in hacked Bitcoin, of which the government seized $3.6 billion in the largest financial seizure in history. The government seized an additional $475 million worth of Bitcoin on Aug. 3, 2022.
Lichtenstein and his wife pleaded guilty to money laundering conspiracy in connection with the Bitfinex hack in August 2023. Amazon has reportedly started making a movie on the Bitfinex money launderers. The script will reportedly be inspired by a 2022 article on the couple in The New York Times, branding them as Bitcoins Bonnie and Clyde.
Related: Why is Bitcoin price up today?
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US gov't moved $922 million of seized Bitcoin after BTC price broke $60,000 - Cointelegraph
Some Coinbase Users Unable To Trade, See Zero Balance Due to Outage as Bitcoin Soars – Investopedia
Key Takeaways
A Coinbase (COIN)outage left some users to witness zero balance in their accounts and unable to trade Wednesday, even as bitcoin (BTCUSD) soared past $63,000.
A status update on the Coinbase website timestamped 9:40 a.m. Pacific Time said that customer assets were "safe" and that the exchange was "aware that some users may see a zero balance across their Coinbase accounts and may experience errors in buying or selling."
With bitcoin rallying to its highest price since November 2021, a surge in traffic may have caused the service disruption, according to a post by Coinbase co-founder and chief executive officer (CEO), Brian Armstrong on X.
By 7:15 p.m. Eastern, Coinbase said it had restored all services on Coinbase.com, though some customers continued to see incorrect account balances. Earlier in the day, the exchange admitted that high traffic had caused the some of the issues that its users faced. Armstrong also posted on X that traffic surge Wednesday was greater than 10xthe threshold Coinbase had tested it could handle.
While a direct correlation cannot be drawn, there was a sharp drop in the price of bitcoin in the immediate few minutes preceding Coinbase's post about the interruption.
TradingView
Earlier today, there was another service disruption that involved delayed transactions for some Coinbase users trading on the Ethereum network. That issue was resolved close to 1:30 p.m. Eastern.
Coinbase shares gave up some of their earlier gains and were up 0.79%, trading a shade above $200 around 3:27 p.m. ET Wednesday. Bitcoin gave up its earlier gains, slipping under $60,000 before reclaiming that price milestone, higher by roughly 5% for the day.
(UpdateFeb. 28, 2024: This story was updated to include more recent outage status provided by Coinbase, additional comments from Coinbase CEO Armstrong's X posts and more current price movements.)
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Some Coinbase Users Unable To Trade, See Zero Balance Due to Outage as Bitcoin Soars - Investopedia