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Bitcoins recent bounce has yet to dispel doubts about its vulnerability following a rout in May.

The cryptocurrency has jumped about 14% over two days and was trading at $38,295 as of 11:05 a.m. in London on Thursday. While the momentum may cheer bulls, a JPMorgan Chase & Co. team said backwardation in a part of the futures market -- where the spot price is above futures prices -- is reason for caution.

We believe that the return to backwardation in recent weeks has been a negative signal pointing to a bear market, JPMorgan strategists led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou wrote in a note. They added that Bitcoins relatively depressed share of total crypto market value is another concerning trend.

The JPMorgan analysis is based on the 21-day rolling average of the 2nd Bitcoin futures spread over spot prices, and pointed out the Bitcoin futures curve was in backwardation for most of 2018. That year, the cryptocurrency fell 74% after a boom. Backwardation is an unusual development and a reflection of how weak Bitcoin demand is at the moment from institutional investors who tend use contracts listed on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, according to the report.

The cryptocurrencys share of overall crypto market value is about 42% currently, down from roughly 70% at the start of the year, according to data from tracker CoinGecko. For some analysts, thats in part a sign of retail-driven investor froth lifting other coins.

Bitcoins share may need to top 50% to make it easier to argue the current bear market is over, the JPMorgan strategists said in the June 9 report. Panigirtzoglou previously flagged Bitcoins declining market share in early May, ahead of tumble in the coins price.

Traders are waiting for the next catalyst to break Bitcoin from a $30,000 to $40,000 range thats been in place since a decline from a record of almost $65,000 in April. Public criticism of the digital currencys energy needs by tycoon Elon Musk and a Chinese regulatory crackdown are among obstacles. Bulls got a bit of a lift Wednesday after El Salvador made Bitcoin legal tender.

We will need to see a break here for the bulls to feel were out of this period of vulnerability, Chris Weston, head of research with Pepperstone Financial Pty, wrote in a note Thursday.

(Updates markets in the second paragraph.)

Before it's here, it's on the Bloomberg Terminal.

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Bitcoin ($BTC USD) Cryptocurrency Price Outlook: Futures a Warning to JPMorgan - Bloomberg

Bitcoin is bouncing back from its recent lows.

The cryptocurrency climbed nearly 9% on Wednesday after hitting a three-week bottom Tuesday, fueled in part by El Salvador becoming the first country to accept bitcoin as legal tender. Interactive Brokers also said Wednesday that it would launch crypto trading on its popular platform by the end of the summer.

But significant obstacles remain, long-term bitcoin bull Todd Gordon told CNBC's "Trading Nation" on Wednesday.

"We're recently short bitcoin. We've covered it," said the TradingAnalysis.com founder, adding that he's still a long-term holder. "There's a lot of sort of bad things, bad narratives weighing against it."

With investors still reluctant to embrace it as a store of value, competition from ethereum increasing, the governments of China, Turkey and India cracking down, and Tesla CEO Elon Musk raising environmental concerns, bitcoin's headwinds aren't exactly few and far between, Gordon said.

"If we look at the technicals, you saw a 53% drop in 2019, a 62% drop in '20 and we just saw a 53% drop. So, we could go a little bit lower, but right now, I think we're neutral," Gordon said.

He suggested watching some key inflation data the consumer price index (CPI), set to be released Thursday for hints on where bitcoin could head next.

"If that CPI number is not hot, watch bitcoin's reaction and that'll start to tell you maybe it's an inflation hedge," he said.

One fellow bitcoin bull wasn't as worried for the near term.

"I'm still bullish and still buying," Delano Saporu, founder and CEO of New Street Advisors Group, said in the same "Trading Nation" interview.

With El Salvador, "you're seeing a country that's going to possibly be able to level the playing field for a lot of folks," Saporu said.

"They mentioned 70% of people in the country aren't able to have financial services readily available," he said. "That's one of the use cases that a lot of people are bullish on when it comes to cryptocurrencies in general, so, we're definitely still buying and definitely still bullish."

Disclosure: Gordon owns bitcoin and shares of the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC). Saporu and New Street Advisors Group own bitcoin.

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Bitcoin bounces from 3-week lows why 'bad narratives' have one trader staying neutral - CNBC

A banner with the logo of bitcoin is seen during the crypto-currency conference Bitcoin 2021 Convention at the Mana Convention Center in Miami, Florida, on June 4, 2021.

Marco Bello | AFP | Getty Images

Bitcoin's price slipped again Tuesday. The world's largest cryptocurrency continued to fall throughout the day amid a brutal sell-off among digital currencies.

The reason for the move was unclear, however it may be related to concerns over security of the cryptocurrency after U.S. officials managed to recover most of the ransom paid to hackers that targeted Colonial Pipeline.

Court documents said investigators were able to access the password for one of the hackers' bitcoin wallets. The money was recovered by a recently launched task force in Washington created as part of the government's response to a rise in cyberattacks.

Bitcoin accelerated its slide late Tuesday morning, falling almost 11% at 11 a.m. ET to a price of $31,629, according to Coin Metrics data. Smaller digital coins also slumped, with ether falling nearly 13% to $2,368 and XRP tanking over 12%.

In April, 2021 was looking to be a banner year for digital assets, with bitcoin having topped $60,000 for the first time ever. But a recent plunge in crypto prices has shaken confidence in the market. Bitcoin sank to nearly $30,000 last month, and is currently down almost 50% from its all-time high.

The digital currency is now up only 9% since the start of the year, though it's still more than tripled in price from a year ago.

On Monday, U.S. law enforcement officials said they had seized $2.3 million in bitcoin paid to DarkSide, the cybercriminal gang behind a crippling cyberattack on Colonial Pipeline.

According to a court document, the Federal Bureau of Investigation was able to access the "private key," or password, for one of the hackers' bitcoin wallets. Bitcoin has often been the currency of choice for hackers demanding ransom payments to decrypt data locked by malware known as "ransomware."

Crypto media outlet Decrypt reported there were unfounded rumors that the attackers' bitcoin wallet had been "hacked," an unlikely scenario.

DarkSide, which reportedly received $90 million in bitcoin ransom payments before shutting down, operated a so-called "ransomware as a service" business model, where hackers develop and market ransomware tools and sell them to affiliates who then carry out attacks.

According to blockchain analytics firm Elliptic, the seized funds represented the bulk of the DarkSide affiliate's share of the ransom paid out by Colonial.

John Hultquist, vice president of analysis at Mandiant Threat Intelligence, called the move a "welcome development."

"It has become clear that we need to use several tools to stem the tide of this serious problem, and even law enforcement agencies need to broaden their approach beyond building cases against criminals who may be beyond the grasp of the law," said Hultquist.

"In addition to the immediate benefits of this approach, a stronger focus on disruption may disincentivize this behavior, which is growing in a vicious cycle," he added.

A number of issues are weighing on cryptocurrencies, including fears of a regulatory clampdown and recent tweets from Tesla CEO Elon Musk.

Chinese authorities last month called for a crackdown on crypto mining and trading. Once a major player in the market, China has since moved to stamp out speculative investment in cryptocurrencies, banning a fundraising method known as initial coin offerings and shuttering local exchanges.

Meanwhile, Elon Musk has gone from a supporter of bitcoin to seemingly falling out of love with it in a matter of months. Musk's electric car firm stopped accepting bitcoin as a payment method last month due to concerns over its environmental impact, resulting in a crypto market sell-off.

"Bitcoin bulls have been chastened by the market pull back and perhaps are feeling once bitten, twice shy," Charles Hayter, CEO of digital currency data firm CryptoCompare, told CNBC.

"The euphoria has worn off to some extent in the retail frenzy, as regulators have moved to temper manias," he added. "Data is showing continued cornering of the market by institutionals."

Last week, thousands of bitcoin investors descended on Miami for an event billed as the biggest bitcoin event in history.

The conference had a few bizarre highlights, including El Salvador President Nayib Bukele announcing plans for the country to accept bitcoin as legal tender.

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Bitcoin extends losses, falling below $32,000 after U.S. seizes most of Colonial ransom - CNBC

Bitcoin enthusiasts are in the middle of an existential crisis. Since its mid-April high, the price of Bitcoin has tumbled by as much as 47%. Meanwhile, China where up to three-quarters of the worlds supply comes from is curtailing mining and trading. And how solid a rock is the worlds largest cryptocurrency when a few cryptic tweets from Tesla Inc. founder Elon Musk can send it wobbling? Institutional investors have been heading for the exit for gold.

But true believers take heart! Other investments require even greater leaps of faith. You can do a lot worse than Bitcoin.

Bitcoin has a simple concept: It is a digital token with a finite supply thats been around for 14 years. By comparison, in the traditional world of stocks and bonds, youll be hard pressed to find assets that have such investor enthusiasm and such a clear story to sell.

Consider the electric vehicle craze. QuantumScape Corp, a $12.3 billion market cap EV battery maker that counts Volkswagen AG and Qatar Investment Authority among its major shareholders, went public via a reverse merger with a SPAC last November. This stock has done worse than Bitcoin, losing almost two-thirds of its value this year. The reason? Its too mysterious.

QuantumScape made some bold claims: That it could extend the range of electric cars by as much as 50% while substantially reducing charge time for a long drive to just 15 minutes. So far, the breakthrough promised is backed only by limited preliminary data. Secrecy is standard practice in battery development: The company would not even name its scientists in an interview with Bloomberg for fear of poaching by rivals. Chief Executive Officer Jagdeep Singh said he never understood why [getting a third-party lab to test our cells] is considered more objective. Mass production is nowhere in sight for this zero-revenue start-up, whose operating losses have been on the rise.

The opaqueness and hype have not only stirred doubt but attracted short sellers. The activist firm Scorpion Capital has called the company a scam. In response, Singh said, the reason for secrecy is it takes a lot of time and energy to work on these new materials. Perhaps to avoid all the controversy, QuantumScape should have remained a unicorn a bit longer and not taken advantage of the SPAC craze to come to the public eye.

Bitcoins biggest selling point is finite supply. The same cant be said of stocks: Companies can issue new shares for various reasons and its an art to guide retail investors toward interpreting share sales in a positive way. Most people dont do it well at all. Consider the experience of China Evergrande Groups $43 billion market cap electric-vehicle unit, whose shares have seen more volatility than Bitcoin this year. Just like QuantumScape, the EV maker has not started mass production yet. Only this month did it hold the initiation ceremony of the summer calibration testing of five models of its Hengchi vehicles, according to the company.

In January, shares of China Evergrande New Energy Vehicle Group soared after the unit raised HK$26 billion from its billionaire founder Hui Ka Yans usual group of investors: his tycoon friends. Back then, retail investors saw this placement as a vote of confidence from the bigwigs. But in May, they changed their mind when the parent raised about HK$10.6 billion selling its shares, at a steep 20% discount. Evergrande explained that the transaction would reduce the ratio of the top 20 shareholders to below 90%, paving the way for an inclusion in the Hong Kong Stock Connect, a trading link that allows mainland Chinese investors to buy Hong Kong-listed shares.

The stock market disagreed, with many interpreting the move as a way for the Evergrande New Energy Vehicles parent Huis indebted real estate development company to cash out. In an early April investor call, according to Debtwire, the developer said it planned to raise 50 billion yuan equity capital each year, including spinning off non-property businesses. The Evergrande parent and its associates have 67.6% stake in the EV unit. On Monday, the New Energy Vehicle Group stock closed 16.3% lower than its mid-May placement price.

Bitcoin lovers should take consolation in the fact that their cherished token has the astonishing asset of a seductively simple story of supply and demand. And that it is the rare example of the Tinker Bell effect. If you remember, Peter Pan brings his dying pixie-dusted friend back to life by begging the audience to clap their hands if they believe in fairies. They did and so she continued to exist. So it is for Bitcoin and its faithful. We live in a world of many unicorns but a real Tinker Bell is hard to come by.

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Bitcoin believers have nothing to worry about; their crypto is here to stay - Business Standard

MIAMI Crypto lingo and booze flowed freely as thousands of bitcoin enthusiasts descended on South Florida this weekend.

At Bitcoin 2021, billed as the biggest bitcoin event in history, legions of faithful fans braved 90-degree days to talk all things crypto. Many of the conference attendees were bitcoin maximalists, a phrase used to describe people who believe that bitcoin, and not necessarily other cryptocurrencies, is the future of finance. Most plan to BTD (buy the dip) and HODL (hold on for dear life).

The energy was electric. A maskless, sold-out crowd of 12,000 attendees spent two days glad-handing, hugging, sending crypto from wallet to wallet, and closing business deals in between panels and speeches. The novelty of taking part in a largely indoor event, free of Covid restrictions, contributed to the atmosphere.

A standard pass to the event cost $1,499. Some guests paid for a highly coveted orange bracelet, known as the "Whale Pass," which takes its name from a term used to describe individuals who hold large sums of bitcoin. The pass granted access to an extra day of speakers, exclusive parties, and a private area in the convention hall, replete with a free bar. On the first day of the conference, it was retailing on Eventbrite for $21,000, plus a $529 transaction fee.

The crowd look was mixed. Picture conference merch like neon-colored fanny packs, Bitcoin 2021 branded sunglasses, and t-shirts with crypto puns and hashtags. Some appeared ready for a summer rave, wearing bikinis in the media room.

However, there was also a strong contingent clad in standard Wall Street business casual, in yet another sign of growing mainstream interest in the world's most popular cryptocurrency. "Whether they were attendees, or just in Miami for the events, it is more institutional participation than I've ever seen at a bitcoin conference," Nic Carter,founding partner at Castle Island Ventures, told CNBC.

For the thousands who didn't get an official ticket to the event, the parties and tangential gatherings were the real draw. There were yacht parties with a DeFi (decentralized finance) theme, sumo wrestling matches, NFT art gallery openings, and cocktail hours dedicated to talking about Bitclout, a social network built on the blockchain technology that underpins most cryptocurrencies.

The after-parties took over rooftops across the city, with at least one featuring fire dancers. The Oasis, one of the biggest nightclubs in Miami, was non-stop crypto.

"There isn't a way to quantify the level that an event like this boosts business," said Mati Greenspan, portfolio manager and founder of Quantum Economics, who flew in from Israel Wednesday night for the event. "What might take me an hour meeting at home can be done in five or ten minutes at a conference. So every hour is worth five or ten meetings."

Fire dancers entertain crypto enthusiasts at a rooftop party in Miami.

Mati Greenspan

A lot of talk centered around moving to Miami. Start-ups, venture firms, and crypto exchanges have been relocating to the city en masse or at least opening additional offices.

Mayor Francis Suarez has portrayed himself as bitcoin-friendly Suarez announced in February that Miami plans to accept tax payments in bitcoin and let employees draw their salary in the cryptocurrency, though the timing of the rollout is unclear. The city is also exploring holding bitcoin on its balance sheet.

Now, the entire city seems to be getting on board. "From waiters to Uber drivers, a bouncer at the nightclub and even a lady selling tchotchkes at the mall, most locals I met on the ground seemed to be somewhat familiar with cryptocurrencies, and many of them are HODLing," said Greenspan, of the few days he spent in Miami.

Carter himself is considering the move. "Virtually everyone I've talked to is super bullish on Texas and Florida and pretty bearish on on New York, San Francisco, and Boston," he said. "I left this thinking that I'm going to make that transition myself."

A common refrain from some of the biggest names on stage was that "bitcoin fixes everything," which pretty much sums up the general sentiment at the conference.

"We say bitcoin is hope; bitcoin fixes everything," said Saylor. "That certainly was the case with our stock."

Dorsey also doubled down on his commitment to the cryptocurrency. "If I were not at Square or Twitter, I'd be working on bitcoin. If it needed more help than Square and Twitter, I would leave them for bitcoin," said Dorsey.

The undertone of widespread support for bitcoin carried with it a spirit of rebellion against the existing financial system.

"We don't need the banks anymore," continued Dorsey. "We don't need the financial institutions that we have today."

Cameron Winklevoss wore a T-shirt with a picture of the Federal Reserve building with a caption reading, "Rage against the machine," a reference to how bitcoin is not controlled by a central bank.

As one panel MC put it, "We are going to put the Fed out of business," which speaks to how people at Bitcoin 2021 generally regarded the monetary system and fiat money, with bitcoin seen as the solution.

Tyler Winklevoss and Cameron Winklevoss (L-R), creators of crypto exchange Gemini Trust Co. on stage at the Bitcoin 2021 Convention, a crypto-currency conference held at the Mana Convention Center in Wynwood on June 04, 2021 in Miami, Florida.

Joe Raedle | Getty Images

But a repudiation of the status quo doesn't mean anarchy. In many of my conversations with attendees, the narrative was far from an advocation of societal collapse or dissolution.

"The whole point of bitcoin is that it's a...peaceful protest against a monetary system that people want no part of," said Carter. "I don't think the Fed has a lot to fear from bitcoin. You don't have to take to the streets to promote bitcoin."

The conference drew participants from countries with high inflation or other currency troubles places like Venezuela, Cuba, Turkey, Nigeria, Lebanon, and Iran who perhaps best understand the use case for a cryptocurrency like bitcoin.

"There are hundreds of people in these places and you don't have to explain bitcoin to them; they understand it intuitively," explained Carter. "That was one of the best parts of the conference for me: meeting people who felt the real-world impact of currency collapse and seeing how they use bitcoin."

One consistent theme of the conference was the maturity of the Lightning Network, a payments platform built on bitcoin, which enables instant transactions.

Virtually every booth at the conference was accepting Lightning transactions. Even Square and Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey completed one during his main stage talk with Alex Gladstein, of the Human Rights Foundation.

"That's a real success story," said Carter. "It's taken four or five years for Lightning to be built on top of bitcoin, but it's working now."

Elon Musk wasn't physically in Miami but his presence was definitely felt. Right at the start of the conference, the price of bitcoin dropped following a tweet by the Tesla CEO that implied he was breaking up with the currency.

Max Keiser, a high-profile bitcoin holder,began his fireside chat by cursing Musk's name, shouting, "F--- Elon!" several times.

On the main stage, Dorsey took what seemed to be a veiled shot at Musk's critique of the environmental impact of bitcoin mining, saying that it actually "incentivizes more renewable energy."

"You just look at the economics of it and ultimately miners have to make a profit and getting cheap renewable energy maximizes their potential for profit. It's really that simple," continued Dorsey. "I thought I had an agreement with some notable figures out there, and that seemed to change in a matter of weeks and now it's in a weird kind of place."

Michael Saylor, a high-profile crypto advocate and the CEO of MicroStrategy a company that bought bitcoin for its balance sheet last year, before both Square and Tesla took Dorsey's comments one step further.

"It's the highest value use of intermittent energy. It's the highest value use of renewable energy. It's the highest value use of wasted or stranded energy. And it's just the highest value use of energy, period," said Saylor.

NFL player and bitcoin fan Russell Okung launched a billboard campaign Friday with the tagline "Stick to space, Elon," a reference to the fact that Musk should stay in his lane, and leave crypto opining to those in the industry.

Most conference attendees said they were ignoring his comments regardless. Many said they don't think Musk, or anyone else not even governments can stop bitcoin.One person in the bathroom line called him a clown, referring to his promotion of a new, pornographically named cryptocurrency over the weekend.

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Thousands of bitcoin believers descended on Miami to party and preach the gospel of 'HODL' - CNBC