Category Archives: Bitcoin

Bitcoin: Boom, Bust and Big Opportunity? – TheStreet

Did the world just witness the bitcoin bomb? Or, the chance for a bitcoin buy?

The famed cryptocurrency fell sharply over the past week, sinking from its mid-month high of over $64,000 to under $48,000, where it hovered Sunday evening.

But the move may prove an opportunity for longer-term investors.

"Bitcoin's volatility isn't a flaw, it's a gift -- especially for the up-and-coming investor class of millennials and Gen-Z," said Dave Balter, the chief executive of Flipside Crypto, which provides analytics and business intelligence to crypto organizations, in an email to TheStreet."The last month is a reflection of its natural cycles, but also of a maturing institutional speculation and futures market."

And, said Balter, any good investor "knows there's always money to be made with volatile assets."

Still, the move shook up some observers. Before the fall, bitcoin had been on a steady upswing, withmany forecasting that it was not a question of if, but when, it would hit $100,000.Just in the past quarter, the cryptocurrency scored several new highs and surpassed $64,000 on April 14. By that time it had also grown by over 1,000% from a year-ago, when on March 13, 2020, it crashed 40% intraday to $5,413, according to a new report by CoinGecko, one of the largest independent cryptocurrency data aggregators.

The past week's drop also came after several months of bullish buildup on crypto that dominated financial news headlines: Tesla (TSLA) - Get Reporthad said in March that it was holding bitcoin as an investment asset and would take it as a form of payment; Visa (V) - Get Reportgot further into crypto; and Grayscale Investments revealed it planned a bitcoin exchange-traded fund. And then there was the hysteria of Coinbase (COIN) - Get Report going public.

"There was already a massive amount of leverage in the market in anticipation of the Coinbase" listing, Bobby Ong, CoinGecko's chief operating officer, told TheStreet in an email. "The excitement of having the first crypto company IPO also led bitcoins price to hit a new all-time high."

Further exacerbating last week's selloff was its occurrence during a weekend when there were thinner order books, said Ong.

"With high leverage and thin order books, even a small decrease in price will trigger a sharp drawdown and cause a downward spiral in price," he said.

Now, the market needs to correct itself, because there were many over-leveraged traders, said Ong, adding that bitcoin options expire toward the end of every month, which usually causes increased volatility around that time.

But it's still well worth investing in, he said, if the time horizon is further out.

"Have a long-term horizon, choose an exposure of your net worth that you are comfortable with, and hold for the long term. We are still in the early innings of bitcoin adoption, and we foresee tremendous growth potential in the years to come," he said.

But there were other events surrounding cryptocurrency over the past month, as well. Despite bitcoin's rise through mid-April and excitement leading up to Cionbase's offering, it wasn't all glitter for the digital coin, even prior to the slip.

Not only did Coinbase's direct listing somewhat disappoint in the days following, but star investors had been growing increasingly vocal about their skepticism of the cryptocurrency.

Hedgefund investor Ray Dalio of Bridgewater Associates told Yahoo Newsin late Marchthat he felt there was a good probability bitcoin could become outlawed in the U.S. He also questioned the privacy of the cryptocurrency's transactions. Then, last week, Guggenheim Partners Scott Minerd told CNBC that while he's bullish on bitcoin over the long-term, bitcoin is too "frothy" and could fall 50%.

That lukewarm reception from stock investors over Coinbase's direct listing and"a lot of fear and uncertainty" spreading on social media didn't help bitcoin, suggested Ong, noting the recent headlines of crypto bans in India and Turkey.

But aside from the technical and fundamental moves in crypto in the waning weeks of April -- much of what happened in the media was little more than hype and speculation, suggested Balter.

"I'd hate to go on record for ever saying Ray Dalio doesn't know what he's talking about," said Balter,who is also a partner with venture capital firm True Ventures. "That said ... like any asset, there's always a great deal of speculation -- bitcoin is esteemed in that it presents both technical and financial implications, and thus magnifies that speculation immensely."

But, he said, that people like Dalio and Minerd are even talking about crypto so publicly on the record, shows how far the digital currency has come, also responding to a recent comment by value investor Bill Miller, who told CNBCthis month that he sees bitcoin establishing itself in the "mainstream."

"The fact that all three are going on record would indicate that bitcoin is likely entering the mainstream, so hat-tip to Mr. Miller," said Balter. "The volatility of bitcoin has always been part of its allure, so cutting in half isn't out of the question.... Although, I don't think we'll ever see $10,000 levels again. As for Mr. Dalio, unfortunately the concept of outlawing an asset that is conceptually decentralized is pretty much out of the question, and bitcoin transactions are hardly private, so sorry Mr. Dalio, you are pretty off the mark."

This story has been updated.

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Bitcoin: Boom, Bust and Big Opportunity? - TheStreet

Bitcoin Corrects 27%, Oh No! (or Why Its Time To Buy Bitcoin) – Entrepreneur

With Bitcoin down more than 25%, were sure there are no few Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) holders wondering if this is the beginning of the end. What we want to point out is that, historically, every time Bitcoin has corrected it has always bounced back

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With Bitcoin down more than 25%, were sure there are no few Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) holders wondering if this is the beginning of the end. What we want to point out is that, historically, every time Bitcoin has corrected it has always bounced back to produce mind-bending returns. Even the 2017/2018 implosion driven by the Chinese regulatory crackdown, a correction that shaved 85% off the price of Bitcoin at its low, bounced back, and look how much BTC has gained since. About 2060%. Thats not something to thumb your nose at. The point were trying to make is that Bitcoin may be down but its not out. The correction may deepen but we dont think so and here are four reasons why.

1) Bitcoin Is Still The Dominant Cryptocurrency - Even with Bitcoins dominance slipping in recent weeks it is still the leading cryptocurrency by market cap. Bitcoin, the original cryptocurrency, is worth about 50% of the $1.8 trillion cryptocurrency market and will likely remain #1 for a very long time. At worst, we expect this coin will fall to #2 or roughly equivalent with Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH) over time but we also think these two ecosystems can exist side by side. Where Bitcoin is a very simple (relatively speaking) blockchain network with limited functionality Ethereum is intended to be and is a globally-scaled financial supercomputer. Simply put, Bitcoin is digital gold while Ethereum aims to be the infrastructure of global digital finance. Regardless, interest in both coins will rebound and one will aid the other.

2) Bitcoins Hashrate Is Still Trending Higher - The hash rate, or the amount of computing power available in the Bitcoin network, is down in conjunction with price action and that is not unexpected. The takeaway is that the decline in hash power is in line with the underlying trend (strongly up) and ready to rebound as it has every other time hashing power has dipped. One reason we expect a rebound is the difficulty level. With the hash rate down so sharply the difficulty of mining a new Bitcoin is reduced and that will attract miners back into the network. Rising BTC prices will also attract Bitcoin miners back into the network. There may be some volatility in this figure over the next month or two but by the end of the summer BTC hashing power should be back at new highs.

3) Scarcity - Even with the ongoing mining activity Bitcoins continue to become scarcer. Not only are BTCs lost every day they are often burned to produce value in other parts of the cryptosphere. At last look, there were about 18.7 million circulating Bitcoins of a total of 21 million Bitcoins possible to mine. Of those, at least 20% are lost or otherwise irrevocably irretrievable. What this means is that we know where these Bitcoins are, they are in a wallet recorded on the blockchain, but the keys to retrieve them are lost. There is no way to know where the wallet is, who owns it, or even how to get into it. Were sure youve heard the stories. The takeaway, like most commodities the scarcer it is the higher the price.

4) Acceptance - Bitcoin is in the midst of rapid acceptance by mainstream financial institutions. Its been slow to build but over the past two quarters, there have been at least a dozen major financial institutions such as Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs whove come out to say theyre offering crypto-services. Along with this is the roll-out of Bitcoin/Cryptocurrency services by the likes of Paypal that includes pay-with-Bitcoin services for its 300+ million customers and 20+ million merchant clients. And then there is the Coinbase Global IP. Coinbase is the worlds leading cryptocurrency exchange and its only getting more popular.

The price of Bitcoin is trading at a new low right now, but inside a range that we think will produce a bottom. This support range is consistent with prior lows that should produce a strong bounce. The indicators and price action suggest price may fall a little bit more but, with stochastic so oversold, the rebound may only be days away if not closer. In the near term, we expect to see BTC move sideways and bottom in the range of $45,000 to $50,000 before moving higher. Mid to long-term we see BTC moving back up to the $60,000 and breaking out with more conviction.

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Bitcoin Corrects 27%, Oh No! (or Why Its Time To Buy Bitcoin) - Entrepreneur

Over $200 billion wiped off cryptocurrency market in a day as bitcoin plunges below $50,000 – CNBC

LONDON/GUANGZHOU, China Bitcoin and other digital currencies plunged on Friday as a proposed capital gains tax hike from U.S. President Joe Biden led to a wave of selling.

At as midday EST, bitcoin was down 7.3% at $49,730, according to Coin Metrics data. It's the first time bitcoin has traded below $50,000 since early March. Ether fell to $2,320, down 8%. XRP, the fifth-biggest cryptocurrency, plunged 16%.

This wiped out more than $200 billion of value from the entire cryptocurrency market, according to data from CoinMarketCap.

"The market has run up quite a bit overall, and it'sprobably cooling off before the next leg up," Vijay Ayyar, head of business development at cryptocurrency exchange Luno, told CNBC by email.

President Biden is expected to raise long-term capital gains tax for the wealthiest Americans to 43.4%, including a surtax. That would be higher than the top federal tax rate on wage income. The new tax rate would apply to returns on assets held in taxable accounts and sold after more than a year.

This triggered a sell-off in stock markets overnight, with all three major U.S. indexes ending Thursday's session in the red. Analysts said fears over Biden's capital gains tax proposal may be extending to crypto investors, who have had a great year with the price of bitcoin having climbed more than sixfold in the last 12 months.

Still, one crypto entrepreneur said Biden could be doing his industry a favor.

"It would make even greater sense to play that oldest trick in the manage-your-finances-smart book: borrow against your assets to avoid capital gains taxes," said Antoni Trenchev, co-founder of crypto lender Nexo.

"And what better collateral than one that despite today's price dip, likely caused by the said proposal appreciates in value like Bitcoin?"

"Things are getting more established," Eric Demuth, CEO and co-founder of digital asset broker Bitpanda, told CNBC's "Squawk Box Europe" Friday. "The more money that gets into the market, the less volatility there will be."

"And for the retail investors who are going in there, the strategy is always never to put everything in one basket and just put a very small fraction of your portfolio into cryptocurrency, into bitcoin. It doesn't matter if you are a strong believer or not, the diversification of your assets is key."

However, concerns over a regulatory crackdown on bitcoin continue to cloud the market. Jesse Powell, CEO of a major cryptocurrency exchange called Kraken, warned governments could clamp down on the use of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.

India is planning to introduce a law to ban the trading or even ownership of cryptocurrencies, Reuters reported last month. In February, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen called bitcoin a "highly speculative asset" and said she was worried about potential losses for investors.

Authorities around the world are looking into how to regulate bitcoin. The Deputy Governor of the People's Bank of China, called bitcoin an "investment alternative" last week, which marked a more progressive tone on cryptocurrencies after a fierce crackdown by the country's regulators on the industry in 2017 and 2018.

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Over $200 billion wiped off cryptocurrency market in a day as bitcoin plunges below $50,000 - CNBC

After a wild weekend, bitcoin could take a breather before the next move higher – CNBC

Yuriko Nakao | Getty Images

Bitcoin's big swing in prices over the weekend likely set the stage for a period of consolidation before the cryptocurrency can make another move higher.

The digital currency lost as much as 15% over the weekend, and rival coins like ethereum also fell.

Bitcoin traded around $55,970 at 4 p.m. ET. Some crypto-linked equities were lower. Coinbase lost nearly 2.6%. Meanwhile, Voyager Digital lost 9.6%, and Marathon Digital Holdings lost 8.7%.

"There's been a lot of rumors and speculation about what pushed the market down over the weekend. To me, it's boiled down to excess leverage within the system," said Leeor Shimron, Fundstrat vice president of digital asset strategy. "We've seen it over the last couple of weeks, especially in bitcoin, but it spilled into other asset classes as well."

Shimron said there was a big deposit of bitcoin over cryptocurrency exchange Binance over the weekend, which helped fuel speculation.

"When the sell-off happened this weekend, approximately $5 billion worth of bitcoin contracts was liquidated, and $9.5 billion was liquidated including altcoin markets," Shimron said.

"Notably, this is twice the notional value compared to Black Thursday 2020, when bitcoin's price dropped by ~50% in 24 hours. The fact this sell-off resulted in a drop of just 15% and quickly rebounded speaks to how much the market has grown and matured over the course of the last year."

Bitcoin tumbled below its 50-day moving average in weekend trading and was again below it Monday. The cryptocurrency recently traded close to $65,000, but was at around $55,900 Monday afternoon, according to Coin Metrics.

Julian Emanuel, head of equities and derivatives strategy at BTIG, said he expects bitcoin to trade in a range between $50,000 and $65,000 after the weekend shakeout. He said it could have entered a period of lower volatility while it consolidates before moving higher again.

Emanuel said he is watching the 50-day moving average at around $56,500.

A break below the 50-day moving average for a significant period of time warns of negative price momentum.

"The spike yesterday was to a low of $51,707. I would define it as literally the point of maximum frustration," Emanuel said. "If you're a bull or a bear, everyone has been keying off the 50-day moving average, and we think the best outcome is you stay pinned to the point of maximum frustration so volatility can come in and the price can correct."

"It's our expectation right now and our wish for the long-term health of the crypto market that we have a correction in time whereby both the bulls and the bears are frustrated by the price action," he said.

Bitcoin went on a tear to near $65,000 ahead of the recent Coinbase debut on the Nasdaq, which was seen as a new lure to bring investors into crypto assets. "The least healthy thing would be a near-term break to the downside or the upside for the range we established over the last week," Emanuel said.

Fundstrat's Shimron said he went into the weekend seeing the $60,000 level as the key level bitcoin should hold. But it failed and bitcoin moved closer to $50,000 temporarily

"I would not be surprised to see a greater period of consolidation for the next couple of weeks or so until $60,000 is regained," Shimron said. "We think bitcoin is going to move higher for the rest of the year, even if we consolidate over the next few weeks."

Fundstrat expects bitcoin to reach $100,000 by the end of the year.

Katie Stockton, chief technical strategist at Fairlead Securities, said if bitcoin closes below the 50-day moving average two days in a row, its next move could be to the support level around $42,000.

"I think right now, until we see the decisive breach of the 50-day moving average, we're keeping a neutral short-term bias," she said.

Stockton said on the upside for bitcoin, her next target is $69,000.

She said she is not surprised by the sell-off after the big surge. "It makes sense that any steep uptrend is prone to create digestion," Stockton said.

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After a wild weekend, bitcoin could take a breather before the next move higher - CNBC

Behind Bitcoins Recent Slide: Imploding Bets and Forced Liquidations – The Wall Street Journal

Bitcoins rally appears to be running out of steam, at least for now.

The digital currency dropped again Friday, briefly falling below $50,000a decline of more than 20% from its record of $64,829 on April 14.

Bitcoins high coincided with the stock-market debut of Coinbase Global Inc., the biggest U.S. cryptocurrency exchange. The two events marked the pinnacle of a heady rally for cryptocurrencies that began last year. Bitcoins price more than tripled in 2020 and doubled to start 2021 before slipping.

The rally cratered last Saturday when bitcoin suddenly fell as much as 17% to $52,149with half the decline occurring in about 20 minutes. Although it recovered some of those losses by Monday, the price has steadily declined, sitting Friday afternoon at $50,620.

Bitcoins momentum lately has been showing signs of flagging, said Michael Oliver of the research firm Momentum Structural Analysis. Since bitcoin crossed $60,000 in March for the first time, its pace of gains has slowed and it has traded in a relatively narrow range. That was a sign, he said, that the rally could falter, as it finally did over the weekend. We think bitcoins broken for the time being, he said, pointing to technical trend lines.

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Behind Bitcoins Recent Slide: Imploding Bets and Forced Liquidations - The Wall Street Journal

Bitcoin Price Drop Is a Moment for Some to Buy the Dip – Bloomberg

For some, it looked like the beginning of the end. For others, it was a great opportunity.

Bitcoins value took a deep dip over the weekend, falling by as much as 15% Sunday on a cocktail of regulatory concerns, power outages in China that limited miningand accusations of overexcitement.

But Bitcoin bulls big and small saw the weekend drop as an opportunity in the shorter term.

Oluwafisayo Williams, a 32-year-old doctor from Sheffield, UK, viewed the drop as a discount. Hestarted investing in cryptocurrencies earlier this year and now says 100% of his investments are in digital currencies. On Sunday, he said he bought 4,800 pounds ($6,710) of Bitcoin and now holds around 27,000 pounds worth.

Its just a matter of conviction, Williams said. If youre not convinced about Bitcoin, you might make the wrong decisions. If I werent convinced about Bitcoin, I might have sold it all.

On Monday, Bitcoin pared some losses and was trading at around $55,000 as of noon in New York after hitting a high of $64,617 on Wednesday.

After a period of relative stagnation, Bitcoins value took off in October as mainstream financial companies embraced crypto. Financial advisers started to feel more comfortable with their clients holding some crypto investments, and wealthy investors and family offices also piled in. On Monday, some money managers for the ultra rich were looking at the upside of a price drop.

Christian Armbruester, founder of the Blu Family Office, bought cryptos on the back of the recent slump for his personal account and also advised the same action for clients of his London-based investment firm, which oversees about $700 million for himself, his family and other wealthy investors.

I bought a bit, said Armbruester, who is planning to set up a dedicated crypto fund for Blu to trade the assets. If you invest in crypto, you have to take the volatility.

Some people, including CNBCs Jim Cramer, have decided its time to cash in. The TV personality revealed last week that he sold some of his Bitcoin holdings although he didnt specify how much, or at what price and paid off a mortgage.

I decided to become an apostate, he said. I know people are going to be angry with me.

There were other signals that other prominent investors thought the coin had gotten overheated during the hype around the public-market debut of crypto exchange Coinbase.

The market got too one way, long-time crypto advocate MikeNovogratz tweeted Sunday, after the price fell. We will be fine in the medium term.

Bobby Console-Verma, founder of London-based technology firm 1fs Wealth, said he isnow exploring buying again with a focus on cryptos outside of the mainstream coins.

Any dip in a market is a potential opportunity, he said. Its a traders delight.

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BloombergOpinion

From John Authers

Coinbase is a big moment for the emerging crypto world. It remains worth $68 billion. That is a remarkable badge of approval for the crypto-financial system. This could be a problem. When the most exciting thing to be said about an investment is that it has matured, the chances are that the excitement is over.

+

With assistance by Katharine Gemmell

Before it's here, it's on the Bloomberg Terminal.

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Bitcoin Price Drop Is a Moment for Some to Buy the Dip - Bloomberg

Bitcoin bears are stalking crypto prices — here’s how low they could go – MarketWatch

Bitcoin is setting up for a near-term downturn that could see it shed a good chunk of its recent gains, even if the longer-term outlook appears healthy for the worlds No. 1 crypto.

Thats the view of a number of analysts after bitcoin prices BTCUSD, -3.55% breached a key technical level following the exuberance for digital assets in the wake of Coinbase Globals COIN, -0.63% listing on the Nasdaq last week.

Bitcoin was off 1.8% late-morning Wednesday in New York, changing hands at around $56,000 on CoinDesk. That puts the crypto about 14% below its all-time peak at $64,829.14.

On Tuesday, researchers at Bespoke Investment Group noted that Tuesday marked bitcoins first time, in a 24-hour period, in which it fell below its 50-day moving average since at least 2014, after recording 193 straight days of prints above that level. Bitcoin was first created back in 2008-09.

Market technicians use moving averages as barometers of bullish and bearish trends in an asset.

Pankaj Balani, CEO of Delta Exchange, in emailed comments, said that bitcoin has managed to hold above its 50-day moving average in recent trade but warned that a sustained breach of the short-term price could lead to a slide to around $40,000.

The 50 DMA has been a crucial support forBitcoinsince October last year and it has held this support every time in this rally. This time around however, we seeBitcoins momentum fizzling out and BTC struggling to hold this support, Balani explained.

The Bespoke researchers noted that bitcoin tends to see declines, in the one-week, one-month, three-month periods, after upward trends lasting at least 100 days are snapped.

One week later, [bitcoin] was down all four times for a median decline of 4.6% and declines all four times. One and three months later, performance was even worse with median declines of 6.5% and 13.4%, respectively, the report read.

Researchers at JPMorgan Chase & Co. JPM, +1.91%, including Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, wrote in a Tuesday report that waning momentum for bitcoin could spell a spiral lower for the volatile asset. The analysts said a failure to retake $60,000 could be the trigger for a sharp drop.

The JPMorgan strategist point to bearish trends in bitcoin futures markets BTC.1, -4.42%, where institutional and professional investors go to hedge their exposures to the crypto.

Referring to the attached chart, JPMorgan says that the four episodes of greater than a 10% decline in their futures position proxy, including the one over the past few days, have been attributed to an inability to trend higher.

Similar to the previous three episodes, it is likely that momentum traders, such as [commodity trading advisors] and crypto funds, were at least partly behind the buildup of long bitcoin futures in recent weeks and thus also likely behind the unwinding over the past few days, JPMorgan concluded.

If the bitcoin price fails to break out above $60,000 soon, the momentum signals shown in Figure 9 will naturally decay from here for several months, given their still elevated level, the analysts wrote.

JPMorgan researchers arent 100% sure that this time bitcoin will follow a decline with a strong snap back higher as was seen in November and in mid-February. Notably, the analysts say that flows into bitcoin have been tepid and the downturn appears to be gathering steam.

So far this year bitcoin prices have been buoyant, up 94% year to date. By comparison, gold GC00, -0.06%, which is seen as a rival to bitcoin, is down 5.5% in 2021. The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +0.67% and the S&P 500 index SPX, +1.09% are both up around 11% in the year to date.

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Bitcoin bears are stalking crypto prices --- here's how low they could go - MarketWatch

Bitcoin rally this year is the start of going mainstream, not a bubble, says investor Bill Miller – CNBC

Longtime value investorBill Millertold CNBC on Tuesday he believes bitcoin is firmly entering into the mainstream, contending the cryptocurrency's rally in recent months is significantly different from its 2017 ascension and subsequent plunge.

In an interview on "The Exchange," the founder and chief investment officer of Miller Value Partners said he believes bitcoin still has room to run to the upside. The world's largest cryptocurrency by market value traded around $55,800 on Tuesday afternoon. It's already rallied around 90% year to date, according to Coindesk.

"Supply [of bitcoin] is growing 2% a year and demand is growing faster. That's all you really need to know, and that means it's going higher," said Miller, who first started to buy bitcoinaround 2014 or 2015at an average cost of $350 per coin.

However, he acknowledged the historically volatile bitcoin will likely continue to experience sharp price swings, like the one that transpired over the weekend, knocking the digital coin below $60,000. Last week, it reached an all-time high of almost $65,000.

Miller said the rally in 2017 was, in fact, a bubble that ultimately burst. It's different now, he argued, saying, "I don't think this is a bubble at all in bitcoin. I think this is now the beginning of a mainstreaming of it."

Bitcoin saw its price soar in 2017, reaching what was then a record high of nearly $20,000 that December. It went on to fall sharply in the following months, losing about 80% of its value in what's become known as the "crypto winter."

"Even back then during the bubble, it went down 20% on five different occasions so with bitcoin, volatility is the price you pay for performance," added Miller, who managed a fund that beat theS&P 500for 15 straight years while at Legg Mason.

Bitcoin traded below $11,000 as recently as October, but its rally gained steam in the fall and carried over into 2021.

Institutional adoption has been cited as one factor for bitcoin's rise, with companies such as Tesla buying the digital coin using cash on its balance sheet. A pair of major Wall Streetbanks Morgan Stanleyand Goldman Sachs also are taking steps toprovide wealth management clients exposureto bitcoin.

Miller said he shares in the belief held by other crypto bulls that bitcoin is "digital gold."

Scarcity is a fundamental characteristic of bitcoin, with its total supply capped at 21 million tokens. Currently, there are 18.69 million bitcoins in circulation, according to Coindesk. New bitcoins come into the market as a reward for so-called miners, who use high-powered computers to verify transactions across the decentralized network.

"Gold is about a $10 trillion asset category and bitcoin is $1 trillion, and it's infinitely divisible or almost so," Miller said. "It's easily transportable and can be sent anywhere in the world if you have a smart phone so it's a much better version, as a store of value, than gold."

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Bitcoin rally this year is the start of going mainstream, not a bubble, says investor Bill Miller - CNBC

How Wyoming became the promised land for bitcoin investors – MarketWatch

Wyomings economy is powered by some of the oldest industries in human history, including mining, agriculture and tourism. But in recent years the state has emerged as an unlikely champion of far newer inventions: cryptocurrencies and the blockchain technology that powers them.

Now, the Cowboy State is arguably the most crypto-friendly jurisdiction in the United States, thanks to state leaders shepherding a series of new laws.

These changes have encouraged several high-profile companies in the industry to move operations from traditional high-tech hubs like San Francisco to Wyomings capital city of Cheyenne, including crypto exchange Kraken, blockchain platform Cardano and payment protocol firm Ripple Labs. But it has also put the state on a potential collision course with federal regulators who appear far more skeptical of the costs and benefits of blockchain technology than libertarian-leaning Wyomingites.

Wyoming State Sen. Chris Rothfuss, chairman of the chambers blockchain committee, told MarketWatch that a desire to diversify the Wyoming economy has been a primary motivator of his states embrace of the crypto industry.

We do a lot of coal, oil and gas, and those dont necessarily have the bright, shiny futures they once did, the Democrat said. Were really looking for opportunities to bring advanced emerging technologies to Wyoming.

Rothfuss said that its not lawmakers like him who were responsible for driving change in Wyoming. Though the Wyoming state government has a history of business-friendly regulation, he argued that its the states residents, along with entrepreneurs who grew up in the state but left for better economic opportunities, who deserve much of the credit for driving these regulatory changes.

One such member of the Wyoming diaspora is Caitlin Long, founder and CEO of Avanti Bank & Trust, which aims to provide custodial services for institutional investors in cryptocurrencies. A Wall Street veteran with two decades of experience working for Salomon Brothers, Credit Suisse CS, +4.40% and Morgan Stanley MS, +3.40%, she became interested in bitcoin BTCUSD, -3.55% in 2012 after appreciating the potential of blockchain technology to enable faster settlement of financial transactions.

In 2017, Long attempted to endow a scholarship for female engineers at her alma mater, the University of Wyoming, using appreciated bitcoin, but found the school wasnt able to accept the donation because Wyoming laws barred the operation of crypto exchanges in the state. This episode motivated her to advocate for changes to state law regarding digital assets.

Long left Wall Street in 2016 and in 2018 volunteered to serve on the Wyoming Blockchain Taskforce, where she worked with the legislature to craft more than a dozen new laws related to blockchain and digital assets. As the project gained momentum, Long said, it attracted public attention that encouraged even greater support from lawmakers.

The legislature held hearings on the laws where a diverse set of Wyomingites showed up, some driving upwards of eight hours to be there. When the legislators walked in the room, they saw young people who were eager and anxious and wanted legal and regulatory clarity, Long said in an interview with MarketWatch.

A Digital Wild West

The laws enacted by Wyoming in 2018 and 2019 clarified the treatment of digital assets in commercial law, setting the legal foundation for so-called smart contracts, or contracts that are automatically executed by computer code on the blockchain. They also made it easier for crypto investors to set up limited liability company though which investors who live outside the state can still store their digital assets in Wyoming for legal purposes. On Wednesday, Wyomings Republican Gov. Mark Gordon signed legislation to give legal status to decentralized autonomous organizations, or member-owned communities that operate using blockchain technology.

The changes also enable Wyoming banks to serve as custodians of digital assets under a unique legal framework that enables institutional investors to retain direct ownership of digital assets through a custodian bank.

Long argues this will make Wyomings banks the place where investors prefer to store their digital wealth.

The changes also required the Wyoming Division of Banking to issue a new type of banking charter, called a special purpose depository institution, for banks that deal mostly in digital assets. Kraken Bank, a wholly owned subsidiary of cryptocurrency exchange Kraken, became the first bank to be issued this charter in September 2020. Avanti was the second, in October 2020.

David Kinitsky, chief executive of Kraken Bank, told MarketWatch that his company chose to domicile in Wyoming because its the only state offering a banking charter that outlines exactly how bank regulators will supervise a bank that holds digital assets.

Wyoming actually did the work on paper to say how exactly they expect you to operate and how they are going to come in and examine you, he said. None of the other charters in any capacity address digital assets.

Some observers, however, are concerned that Wyomings new charter will expose the national banking system to new risks. The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City is reviewing Krakens application to gain access to the Federal Reserves payment system, as most state-chartered banks are entitled to, which would give the bank an account at the Fed and membership in the Fedwire settlement system.

Rob Nichols, chief executive of the American Bankers Association, told the National Conference of State Legislatures earlier this month that because the SPDI charter enables crypto banks to be chartered without becoming insured by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, it gives those banks a competitive advantage.

These entities see the value in getting access to Federal Reserve payments systems like the Fedwire Funds Service and the automated clearinghouse (ACH) network, but do not want to play by the same rules as traditional banks, Nichols said. Finding chartering authorities that are willing to redefine what it means to be a bank introduces risks to the financial systems safety and soundness, consumer protection laws and international reputation.

Albert Forkner, commissioner of Wyomings Division of Banking, said however that it is in part the FDICs reluctance to give any guidance to its member banks on the subject of custody of digital assets that motivated Wyoming to create this new charter. Meanwhile, he added, the charter requires banks to be fully reserved meaning it must have enough cash or cash-like securities on hand at all times to meet any possible customer withdrawal request.

These businesses felt they were being locked out of traditional banking institutions, he said in an interview with MarketWatch. So we want a non-FDIC insured bank, but the trade off is that it would be 100% reserved.

Learning from South Dakota

Forkner likened the changes that the Wyoming Division of Banking is implementing to South Dakotas decision in the early 1980s to eliminate interest-rate caps in order to attract credit card companies to the state. Amid sharply rising inflation rates in the late 1970s and early 1980s, credit card issuers like Citibank were losing money because they couldnt legally charge enough in interest to offset the general rise in prices.

The South Dakota economy was suffering from depressed agricultural prices, motivating the governor to strike a deal with Citibank to eliminate its interest rate cap in exchange for the company moving its credit-card operations to the state. Today, the financial services industry employs roughly 30,000 South Dakotans out of a labor force of roughly 430,000.

Its a useful analogy, said state Sen. Rothfuss. Thats the way that a transformative change to the states economy can happen just by listening, just trying to identify needs of a changing market and meet the needs of innovation.

Wyoming, however, does not hold its fate as a future hub for the crypto industry in its hands alone, given that the Kansas City Fed still has the power to grant or deny access to the central banks payment system.

Its borderline essential to the success of Wyomings charter for the Fed to welcome institutions like Kraken Bank into its system, Forkner said, which would enable real-time settlement of transactions and create a nearly frictionless gateway between the worlds of traditional money and cryptocurrencies like bitcoin.

Kraken Banks CEO Kinitsky said that he expects the Kansas City Fed to approve the banks application, but argued that federal regulators more broadly have been too slow to provide the crypto industry with a regulatory framework specific to this new technology.

You hear about the concept of the innovators dilemma in business, but it happens in government as well, he said. The United States is the de facto leader in financial services by some margin, so we have bigger fish to fry. When youre a smaller jurisdiction whose financial infrastructure doesnt support the global economy, its a different proposition and you can move much faster.

But Wyoming is now forcing federal regulators to at least stake out a position on these issues, and he believes the crypto economy could be a boon to the state for years to come.

Were already seeing other states borrowing liberally from the Wyoming playbook, but their moat is not whats on paper, he said. Wyomings secret sauce is they have a very supportive legislature, public opinion and governors office that view this is an important industry.

See also: Crypto for the long term: whats the outlook?

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How Wyoming became the promised land for bitcoin investors - MarketWatch

Bitcoin’s sell-off by the numbers: Oppenheimer puts the latest drop into perspective – CNBC

It's been a wild few days for bitcoin.

The cryptocurrency fell close to $52,000 on Sunday, sharply off its record high set last week above $64,800. The sell-off was tied to rumors of a regulatory crackdown in the U.S., a common fear for bitcoin investors.

But, taking a step back, that kind of a move looks par for the course for bitcoin, according to Oppenheimer head of technical analysis Ari Wald.

"Let's put some things in perspective," Wald told CNBC's "Trading Nation" on Monday. "In August, bitcoin suffered a 20% drawdown, a 17% drawdown in November, 31% in January, 26% in February, 18% March, and now more recently down 16% about peak to trough. It must have been a tough nine months for bitcoin investors, right? Nope! ... Through that period from the August peak into the recent low, bitcoin is up 315%."

Its 12-month chart looks even better. Over the past year, bitcoin has risen more than 680%.

"This is a very volatile currency day to day. I think that's the important point here. It may not be suitable for all investors. There's really no damage to the trend on this, though, but there's a trade-off between risk and reward. To get the big upside reward it has to come with substantial downside risk," said Wald.

Nancy Tengler, chief investment officer at Laffer Tengler Investments, sees a few forces at work in the bitcoin trade. The first, regulatory risk, has been "well telegraphed for some time" and has come to be expected by investors, she says.

The second, a positive driver of sentiment, is increasing adoption.

"We have limited supply and an increasing demand with companies [getting involved] as diverse as Walmart, Visa, Square, Tesla, even Starbucks with an app that you can buy coffee using your bitcoin. So we know the demand is going up," Tengler said during the same interview.

The third is concentration risk. She estimates that 2.4% of bitcoin accounts control roughly 95% of the overall available bitcoin.

It's not just bitcoin seeing big moves in the crypto space. Bitcoin is up 92% this year, while ethereum, ripple and litecoin have enjoyed rallies in the triple digits. The meme cryptocurrency dogecoin is up an eye-popping 8,282% in 2021.

Disclaimer

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Bitcoin's sell-off by the numbers: Oppenheimer puts the latest drop into perspective - CNBC