Category Archives: Bitcoin

Sleeping Bitcoins Worth $40 Million Move- Mystery Miner Spends Another 1,000 BTC From 2010 Block Rewards | News – Bitcoin News

On January 10, another strange string of 20 bitcoin block rewards from 2010 was spent after sitting idle for over ten years. The spending of 1,000 decade-old bitcoins worth over $39 million today, follows the recent string of 1,000 units transferred on the 12th anniversary of Bitcoins genesis block launch.

Seven days ago an old-school miner spent 20 block rewards from 2010 that held approximately 1,000 decade-old bitcoins. The interesting spending took place on January 3, 2021, on the 12th anniversary of the Bitcoin networks start.

Following that string of 2010 block rewards moved, on Friday, January 8, a block created on June 21, 2010, was spent at block height 665,055 and was likely a different entity than the mysterious miner news.Bitcoin.com has been following since March 2020. However, two days later after the single block spend, it seems the mystery miner has appeared once again spending a massive 1,000 decade-old bitcoins that sat idle for ten years.

On Sunday, precisely one week later at 1:08 a.m. (EST), 20 block rewards were transferred to this shortened address 3Fwhd. News.Bitcoin.com leveraged the onchain blockchain parser Btcparser.com, which once again caught the sleeping bitcoins movements on Sunday morning. The consolidation address that once held 999.999 BTC or over $39 million using todays exchange rates, shows the coins were then sent to multiple addresses.

Just like the previous string of 2010 block rewards transferred on Bitcoins 12th anniversary, the coins were split into fractions of 10 BTC per address. At press time, the bitcoin addresses that hold 10 BTC worth roughly $395k each remain unmoved and sit idle. It is likely that during the course of today, similar to the prior strings of 2010 spends, the 10 BTC addresses will also be drained as well.

As usual, the mystery miner also spent the corresponding bitcoin cash (BCH) block rewards too. Just like the last few string movements of 2010 block rewards, the bitcoinsv (BSV) remains unspent. Similar to the previous ten-year-old 20-block string spends, todays 1,000 bitcoin move stemmed from blocks mined in August, September, and October 2010.

Alongside the parsed data caught by Btcparser.com, the web portal that hosts the Satoshi Bags Tracker shows a visual perspective of the string of 2010 spends. This particular 1,000 coin spend was similar to the string of coins moved on November 7 and 8, 2020, as the two 1,000 bitcoin movements happened back to back over a two-day span.

There have been a number of coincidences and circumstantial evidence that leads this reporter to believe that all the 20-21 block reward spends from 2010 stem from the same entity. The miner or group of miners block rewards all derive from the same months ten years ago and usually, the transfers happen very early in the morning (EST).

Following the split of the previous 1,000 BTC spend, the 10 BTC addresses saw the coins spent hours later. The same pattern happened with all the other prior strings of 2010 block reward spends. Further, the corresponding bitcoinsv (BSV) from the previous string spends remain untouched.

Whoever the old school miner is the entity has amassed a great number of block rewards from the time when Satoshi Nakamoto still spent time with the community. So far in 2021, thereve been around 43 block reward spends from 2010 all spent during the first week of the new year. Further since March 12, 2020, otherwise known as Black Thursday, theres been a total of seven string spends from 2010 spent by this entity.

What do you think about todays 1,000 bitcoin spend from the 2010 block rewards? Let us know what you think about this subject in the comments section below.

Image Credits: Shutterstock, Pixabay, Wiki Commons, Btcparser.com, Bitcoin.com, Holyroger.com,

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only. It is not a direct offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell, or a recommendation or endorsement of any products, services, or companies. Bitcoin.com does not provide investment, tax, legal, or accounting advice. Neither the company nor the author is responsible, directly or indirectly, for any damage or loss caused or alleged to be caused by or in connection with the use of or reliance on any content, goods or services mentioned in this article.

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Future FinTech’s mBTC System and Technology Allows Consumers to Use Bitcoin as An Online Payment Method – PRNewswire

NEW YORK, Jan. 11, 2021 /PRNewswire/ -- Future FinTech Group Inc. (NASDAQ: FTFT, "Future FinTech", "FTFT" or "Company"), a leading blockchain based e-commerce business and a fintech service provider, announced today that DCON DigiPay Limited ("DCON"), a company incorporated in Japan and a 60% owned subsidiary of the Company, has completed the upgrade of its mBTC system and technology which can now be used by e-commerce platforms that plan to accept Bitcoin (BTC) as a payment method from consumers.

The mBTC system is a blockchain based system to exchange mBTC and BTC which has a 1,000,000:1 exchange rate pegged against Bitcoin, so it can be used by consumers in real life. Bitcoin has a very high market value and it is not practical as an online shopping payment method.

DCON originally developed mBTC as a payment platform for certain blockchain based communities and has adapted its technology to be suitable for e-commerce platforms. The mBTC is designed on the real name blockchain basis which will help its owner recover his or her funds despite the anonymous nature of BTC.

"Our unique technology for mBTC solves the main issue with BTC, which is that it is anonymous and not recoverable if lost or stolen," said Shanchun Huang, Chief Executive Officer of the Future FinTech. "It also enables BTC and blockchain technology to serve the consumer space. We expect this technology to be used not only for e-commerce platforms but also for other payment systems that plan to use BTC. Because our technology uses the shopper's legal name, it can also meet Know Your Customer (KYC) and Anti-Money Laundry (AML) requirements."

About Future FinTech Group Inc.

Future FinTech Group Inc. ("Future FinTech", "FTFT" or the "Company") is a leading blockchain e-commerce companyand a service provider for financial technology incorporated inFlorida. The Company's operations include a blockchain-based online shopping mall platform, Chain Cloud Mall ("CCM"), a cross-border e-commerce platform (NONOGIRL), an incubator for blockchain based application projects. The Company is also engaged in the development of blockchain based technology and services as well as financial technology services. For more information, please visithttp://www.ftftex.com/.

Safe Harbor Statement

Certain of the statements made in this press release are "forward-looking statements" within the meaning and protections of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or the Exchange Act. Forward-looking statements include statements with respect to our beliefs, plans, objectives, goals, expectations, anticipations, assumptions, estimates, intentions, and future performance, and involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors, which may be beyond our control, and which may cause the actual results, performance, capital, ownership or achievements of the Company to be materially different from future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. All statements other than statements of historical fact are statements that could be forward-looking statements. You can identify these forward-looking statements through our use of words such as "may," "will," "anticipate," "assume," "should," "indicate," "would," "believe," "contemplate," "expect," "estimate," "continue," "plan," "point to," "project," "could," "intend," "target" and other similar words and expressions of the future.

All written or oral forward-looking statements attributable to us are expressly qualified in their entirety by this cautionary notice, including, without limitation, those risks and uncertainties described in our annual report on Form 10-K for the year endedDecember 31, 2019and our other reports and filings with SEC. Such reports are available upon request from the Company, or from the Securities and Exchange Commission, including through the SEC's Internet website athttp://www.sec.gov. We have no obligation and do not undertake to update, revise or correct any of the forward-looking statements after the date hereof, or after the respective dates on which any such statements otherwise are made.

SOURCE Future FinTech Group Inc.

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Future FinTech's mBTC System and Technology Allows Consumers to Use Bitcoin as An Online Payment Method - PRNewswire

Bitcoin’s wild rally and a fear of missing out has retail investors flocking to crypto – CNBC

studioEAST | Getty Images

LONDON Bitcoin's record-breaking rally has led to a surge in retail investment interest in the cryptocurrency market.

Crypto exchanges such as Coinbase and Binance and online trading platforms including Revolut and eToro have seen a spike in activity recently, as new investors race to capture some of the wild gains in the market.

"There is certainly market data pointing to increased retail participation," said Michael Bucella, partner at crypto investment firm BlockTower Capital.

"This is reflected in the recent surge in 'altcoins'" other digital tokens that came after bitcoin "and the increase in volumes on the retail platforms, as well as the crypto-native exchanges that have historically been more retail-focused," Bucella added.

Bitcoin bulls claim the cryptocurrency's latest rally is different to a late-2017 bubble that saw its price soar close to $20,000 before collapsing as low as $3,122 the following year. The main difference, they say, is that institutional investors are driving the price gains this time round.

A number of famed investors including Paul Tudor Jones and Stanley Druckenmiller came out as believers in the cryptocurrency last year, while U.K. asset management firm Ruffer added 550 million ($747 million) of bitcoin to its portfolio.

There remain skeptics, however, such as American stock broker Peter Schiff and economist Nouriel Roubini, who see bitcoin as a speculative asset with no intrinsic value and amarket bubble that is likely to burstat some point.

Despite this, there are signs of a sharp rise in demand from retail investors, who don't want to miss out on the action. That may have significant implications for the latest crypto market cycle, as retail speculation was considered to be a big factor in bitcoin's 2017 rally.

Google trends data shows that web searches for bitcoin rose sharply at the start of the month, reminding some market watchers of the parallel increase in bitcoin's price and searches for the cryptocurrency in December 2017. Searches for bitcoin are far from where they were over two years ago, however.

The total market value of all cryptocurrencies surpassed $1 trillion for the first time on Thursday, helped in no small part by bitcoin's recent performance. Bitcoin, which also topped $40,000 a coin for the first time Thursday, is the world's most valuable digital coin, with a market cap of over $700 billion.

Meanwhile, online investment platforms are seeing a surge in sign-ups and trading volumes. EToro, for example, had 61% more unique bitcoin holders on Jan. 4 than it did a year earlier, and 49% more unique holders of ether, another virtual currency.

"There will be volatility, which is natural after the gains we have seen, but the long-term trend is clear," Simon Peters, market analyst at eToro, told CNBC. "Crypto is moving into the mainstream, and more and more investors are adding exposure."

Revolut says it signed up 300,000 new cryptocurrency customers over the last 30 days as bitcoin rallied to fresh highs. Bitcoin was the most popular digital currency on the platform in the last two weeks, followed by XRP and ether.

Prices of altcoins, such as ether, litecoin and bitcoin cash, have risen dramatically in the past week. They often rally in times of strength for bitcoin for example, ether on Monday climbed past $1,000, for the first time since February 2018.

Bucella claimed that the recent gains in altcoins were "largely driven by recent retail participation," while the "dominant players in bitcoin are institutional."

Cryptocurrency trading volumes surged to a daily record of $68.3 billion on Sunday, according to data from CryptoCompare. That eclipsed the peak of the 2017 bull run in December, when daily volumes hit a high of $27.8 billion.

Many crypto investors say bitcoin is akin to "digital gold," a potential safe haven asset and a hedge against inflation. Strategists at JPMorgan recently gave a lofty long-term price target of $146,000 for bitcoin, claiming it is starting to compete with gold as an "alternative" currency.

The risk of an abrupt reversal is high, as volatility in cryptocurrencies tends to be ignored by retail investors.

Daniel Lacalle

chief economist at Tressis Gestion

However, the strategists also noted that bitcoin's price volatility would have to drop substantially in order to reach this target. They added that there have been "some signs that retail interest has also increased sharply," pointing to rising volumes on platforms like PayPal and Square's Cash App.

PayPal last year launched a feature in the U.S. that lets its users invest in cryptocurrencies. The company plans to offer crypto shopping across its massive network of retailers later this year. The move was widely seen as a step toward mainstream adoption of crypto in things like payments.

Daniel Lacalle, chief economist at Tressis Gestion, said bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have grown popular with retail investors in emerging markets, such as Argentina, Brazil and Turkey.

"There is a growing demand for cryptocurrencies, especially bitcoin, from savers in emerging economies that saw their domestic currency collapse relative to the U.S. dollar even in 2020 with a weak greenback," he told CNBC.

"I also believe that small investors jump into the bandwagon because they see momentum," he added. "The risk of an abrupt reversal is high, as volatility in cryptocurrencies tends to be ignored by retail investors."

Looking ahead, Charles Hayter, CEO of CryptoCompare, said there are "two clear future catalysts" in the crypto market -- the potential approval of a bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) and an expected initial public offering from Coinbase.

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Bitcoin's wild rally and a fear of missing out has retail investors flocking to crypto - CNBC

The case for and against investing in Bitcoin – Livemint

There are plenty of reasons for caution. The virtual currencys value has soared and plunged repeatedly since its introduction in 2009. It fell 52% just from Feb. 13 to March 11 last year.

And, while bitcoin is referred to as a digital currency, it doesnt meet at least one important criterion of a currency: It lacks widespread usage as a medium of exchange in legitimate commercial transactions. In November, digital-payment processors handled just $269.7 million of merchant sales world-wide in bitcoin, according to research firm Chainalysis. By comparison, total U.S. retail sales registered $546.5 billion in November.

Many pros think individual investors should steer clear of the currency entirely. But others suggest investors would do well to consider adding bitcoin to their portfoliobut generally only as a small percentage of their overall assets.

Making bitcoin a significant part of your portfolio would increase your risk substantially," says Eswar Prasad, a trade-policy professor at Cornell University who is writing a book about digital currencies. But a marginal amount seems worthwhile given recent dynamics."

Some of the best arguments for and against investing in bitcoin:

THE PLUSES

What bitcoin really represents is a store of value. As such, it can be used to hedge against inflation and against declines in other financial assets, such as stocks, bonds and the dollar, some industry pros say. Bitcoin has appreciated while the dollar has slid since last March.

The store of value" role for bitcoin is similar to that of gold. I put it in the same bucket," says John Rekenthaler, vice president of research at investment-research firm Morningstar.

Some advocates endorse investing in bitcointhough its volatility means timing can still be an issuesaying it will eventually stabilize and then be used more for legitimate commerce.

PayPal has said it plans to allow bitcoin to be used as a payment method starting early this year. A competitor, Square, also has shown interest in bitcoin commerce, and announced in October that it bought $50 million of the asset.

Some analysts also see an upside to bitcoins volatility. Its erratic trading keeps bitcoins correlation with stocks and bonds low, creating diversification. Volatility is bad if youre tapping it into the main part of your portfolio," Mr. Rekenthaler says. But if its on the side, thats good. That helped gold become a diversifier." He adds: We mutual-fund owners should start to think about bitcoin. But Im not saying the average investor should have it."

Because bitcoin is so volatile, investors dont need a lot of it to diversify a portfolio, he says. Mr. Rekenthaler reckons that a 5% allocation in bitcoin will diversify a balanced portfolio as effectively as a 25% position in the largest alternative" mutual fund, JPMorgan Hedged Equity (JHEQX).

While Karim Ahamed, investment strategist at Cerity Partners in Chicago, isnt advocating for bitcoin investment at this point, his company has begun studying whether to invest. Mr. Ahamed says having a small investment in bitcoin could work much like an allocation to venture capital. In venture capital," he says, one in 10 investments is a home run, two to three lose money and the others about break even. The home run makes up for a lot of misses."

Bill Miller IV, a portfolio manager at Miller Value Partners and son of legendary investor Bill Miller, has about 20% of his personal portfolio in bitcoin. Its a mistake for people not to own bitcoin," the younger Mr. Miller says.

A major appeal of bitcoin for Mr. Miller is its scarcity, he says. There is about $650 billion of bitcoin outstanding, compared with his estimate of about $80 trillion for standard currencies.

Demand is outpacing supply," says Mr. Miller, who interprets that to mean bitcoin should keep rising and trading should remain volatile.

THE MINUSES

There is no obvious way to determine bitcoins fair value. Bitcoin stands as a store of value only because some investors believe it is one. Bitcoin depends on the faith of investors and nothing more," Prof. Prasad says. It could equally well go to zero tomorrow if 10% of investors sold."

Other types of investment depend on similar underlying faith. But when it comes to stocks and bonds, for instance, there are legitimate mathematical models to determine their value. Stocks produce earnings and bonds produce income, for example, which helps determine their values.

Many analysts also question bitcoins value as a hedge. This year, it has largely risen in tandem with stocks and bonds at a time when inflation is quiescent. In addition, no major inflation has broken out since bitcoin came on the scene 12 years ago, so it is difficult to know whether it truly guards against price increases. You need that empirical testing," Mr. Ahamed says.

Meanwhile, some critics question whether bitcoins scarcity is a selling point. That scarcity also means illiquid and volatile trading, as evidenced by bitcoins roller-coaster ride during its 12 years of existence.

Skeptics also challenge the view that bitcoins volatility can be viewed as beneficial to a portfolio for diversification purposes. If the volatility comes just from speculation, Im not sure I want it as an uncorrelated asset," Mr. Ahamed says.

This story has been published from a wire agency feed without modifications to the text.

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The case for and against investing in Bitcoin - Livemint

Bitcoin tops $40,000 as investors seek hedge against inflation – The Guardian

Bitcoin has surged above the $40,000 (29,500) mark for the first time in its history after doubling its value in less than a month.

The record comes just days after the cryptocurrency hit an all-time high of more than $34,800 on Sunday, which was also the 12th anniversary of the bitcoin network being created. Bitcoin first breached the $20,000 mark in mid-December.

The asset has become increasingly popular with mainstream institutional investor, and supporters argue that it is starting to supplant gold as a store of value.

Analysts at the US investment bank JP Morgan said this week that bitcoin could eventually hit $146,000 if it bolsters its reputation as an alternative to the precious metal. They said the cryptocurrency was also becoming an option for investors who were looking to hedge against inflation, but were turned off by the depreciating US dollar.

There are more than 18m bitcoins in existence, created by the miners who provide the computational power underpinning the blockchain. The blockchain is a decentralised record of all transactions made using bitcoin that is maintained by a network of thousands of computers around the world. The system has a hardwired maximum of 21m coins.

Some sceptics have warned that the cryptoboom could be heading for trouble, and that the coin itself has no intrinsic value. But Naeem Aslam, the chief market analyst at AvaTrade, an online broker, said the cryptocurrency continued to defy its critics.

A major price level has been hit and bitcoin has proved that this is not the asset class you want to mess around with. It has proved itself to all disbelievers today.

Institutional traders are the ones who have really got the rally going, he said, adding that the next major moment for the cryptocurrency would come when it breached the $50,000 mark.

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Bitcoin tops $40,000 as investors seek hedge against inflation - The Guardian

Bitcoin’s parabolic price surge near $42,000 is the ‘mother of all bubbles’ – MarketWatch

After a multiyear pit stop, bitcoin prices are surging like never before.

The unabated price acceleration to a recent peak near a stunning $42,000 on CoinDesk has made true believers out of many staid Wall Street pros, who may have once turned their collective noses up at the digital-asset that has only been around for a little over a decade.

However, the extraordinarily parabolic move for bitcoin, which was at last check, up 2.5% on Friday at $40,202 has raised serious questions about bubbles, like the Tulip mania of the 17th century.

BofA Global Research in their weekly The Flow Show report dated Jan. 7, raised the question as to whether bitcoins price move represents the mother of all bubbles. Check out the following chart that takes a stab at comparing the climb in asset against other assets over decades.

Of course, the chart doesnt go all the way back to the Tulip craze, where a single tulip commanded the same price, and often more, as a house during the peak of the Dutch craze from 1636-1637.

But BofAs point is well taken, bitcoins are richly prized and comparatively are staging a precipitous climb that merits attention and, perhaps, caution.

So far in the first full week of 2021, bitcoin has already climbed nearly 37%. By comparison, the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +0.18% is up a respectable, but more mundane, 1.5%, the S&P 500 index SPX, +0.55% is on track for a 1.6% gain and the Nasdaq Composite Index COMP, +1.03% has returned 1.4% thus far.

Bitcoins rally this year has pushed up the collective cryptocurrency market capitalization to a record above $1 trillion and as BofAs Michael Hartnett and his team puts it, the rise, of the cryptocurrency market now >$1tnas Bitcoin past 2 years blows-the-doors-off prior bubbles.

The gains appear to be far from over if you believe forecasts from JPMorgan Chase, whose researchers argue that the digital currency could be valued at $146,000 if bitcoin challenges gold GC00, +0.78% as a haven-like asset. That would certainly be worth a respectable house.

Of course, this isnt the first time that bitcoin has been referred to as a bubble.

In aprepared testimonyfor a Senate Banking Committee hearing back in 2018, Turkish-born economist, Nouriel Roubini, said digital currencies are the mother of all bubbles and, in fact, have entered an apocalypse.

Howard Wang, co-founder of Convoy Investments, also dubbed bitcoin the biggest bubble in history before its eventual collapse back in 2017.

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This Bitcoin Ransomware Rakes in $150 Million in BTC | Security Bitcoin News – Bitcoin News

A new report by two cybersecurity firms has revealed that one ransomware family is particularly successful, raking in over $150 million in bitcoin. The ransom payments sometimes amount to millions of dollars and typically run in the hundreds of thousands range.

The Ryuk ransomware family has raked in $150 million in bitcoin, according to a joint report by cybersecurity firms Advanced Intel and Hyas. The Ryuk family of ransomware has been particularly successful in economic terms as well as having a disruptive impact on many industries around the world, the report authors described, adding:

Our research involved tracing payments involving 61 deposit addresses attributed to Ryuk ransomware. The Ryuk criminals send a majority of their bitcoin to exchanges through an intermediary to cash out.

The ransomware family Ryuk was first discovered in the wild in August 2018. Its targets tend to be high-profile organizations, including hospitals and newspapers.

The report authors explained that Significant volumes of bitcoin move from the laundering service to Binance, Huobi, and crime markets that we have identified through traced payments. Besides the two crypto exchanges, there are significant flows of cryptocurrency to a collection of addresses that are too small to be an established exchange and probably represent a crime service that exchanges the cryptocurrency for local currency or another digital currency.

Furthermore, the report notes that Ryuk receives a significant amount of their ransom payments from a well-known broker that makes payments on behalf of the ransomware victims. These payments sometimes amount to millions of dollars and typically run in the hundreds of thousands range, adding:

After tracing bitcoin transactions for the known addresses attributable to Ryuk, the authors estimate that the criminal enterprise may be worth more than $150,000,000.

What do you think about this ransomware raking in $150 million in bitcoin? Let us know in the comments section below.

Image Credits: Shutterstock, Pixabay, Wiki Commons

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only. It is not a direct offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell, or a recommendation or endorsement of any products, services, or companies. Bitcoin.com does not provide investment, tax, legal, or accounting advice. Neither the company nor the author is responsible, directly or indirectly, for any damage or loss caused or alleged to be caused by or in connection with the use of or reliance on any content, goods or services mentioned in this article.

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The price movement in Bitcoin is textbook: Fundstrat Global Advisors’ Tom Lee – Yahoo Finance

Tom Lee, Fundstrat Global Advisors Managing Partner & Head of Research joins the Yahoo Finance Live panel to discuss Bitcoin at an all-time high, market outlook amid jobs day report and Capitol chaos.

ZACK GUZMAN: I want to turn our attention to the markets here. And if Austan Goolsbee is one of our favorite economists to come on the show, I'll welcome one of our favorite guests ever to nail the market action in 2020 here. That, of course, would be Fundstrat Global Advisors managing partner and head of research Tom Lee. And Tom, as I said, I mean, you nailed everything in 2020.

And you're out with a new note here to look ahead to 2021, which is very interesting. And I just kind of want to break it down because you focus in on the VIX. And you've told us to watch that before as kind of being one of the key indicators in terms of where the market is headed from here. And it sounds like you're breaking down kind of where the volatility expectations are here in 2021, with investors showing that they're expecting similar levels of volatility to what we saw play out last year. So what does that mean for the markets when you look at the data?

TOM LEE: Well, yeah, thanks for having me on. The VIX, which is a measure of expected volatility, I think has always provided a lot of good signal for people. And high levels of spot VIX obviously mean people are scared, but what we wrote about was that when you look at the futures market for VIX, because that's really where more activity is, VIX is expected to be high all the way through September. And if you think about it, that's a pretty insane level of fear that people are scared for the next nine months.

But what's interesting is that this level of fear is exactly almost the same level it was throughout all of 2020. So people don't think anything's getting better. And that's how the market is perceiving equities today and the economy. And if you believe things are indeed improving, then you should be buying stocks because the VIX is destined to fall in the next nine months. But another thing that [INAUDIBLE] pointed out was--

Story continues

ZACK GUZMAN: Yeah, that's kind of--

TOM LEE: Oh, sorry, I was just--

ZACK GUZMAN: [INAUDIBLE] going to get to it, that second point.

TOM LEE: Yeah, the second point is, if you look at the fact that people think current volatility was higher than future, that's how 2020 averaged. And people just thought there was always going to be a near term volatility event. In the 12 months after averaging a level like that, stocks do incredibly well. In fact, they've never had a down year.

So 2021 is a year where the VIX is unwinding that fear. And historically, the average gain is 23%. So I think stocks have an underlying positive risk reward. And I think that's how you should approach it. But again, you know, future's uncertain, COVID's uncertain. So just keep that in mind. But, again, history says this should be a great year for stocks.

AKIKO FUJITA: Tom, in addition to the equity markets, we always like to come to you to talk about Bitcoin, certainly significant gains that we've seen, trading right now well above 41,000. You saw that note out from JPM earlier this week, talking about Bitcoin hitting 146,000. Has your thesis changed at all, given the significant surge that we have seen over the last several weeks?

TOM LEE: You know, I think that the price move in Bitcoin actually is pretty textbook because it's behaving the way crypto and Bitcoin has acted after previous halvenings, you know, when the block rewards cut in half. And 2017 was a year when Bitcoin last went parabolic. That's one full year after the halvening.

2021 would pattern itself after that. So if-- you know, the fact that Bitcoin's doubled almost in 10 days, and I think the JPMorgan numbers are not that far off-- I mean, I'm not sure I'd be that precise with, you know, 146,000. But I think Bitcoin, it looks like 2017 will be up at least 300% this year.

ZACK GUZMAN: It does seem like an oddly precise price target there, too. I mean, you guys had 40,000. We're already above that now. You said that it could quadruple. That would put it above 100,000 here at some point in 2021. So, I mean, continue that trend. We've talked about volatility in Bitcoin and how quickly it can move south here. So, I mean, obviously, it's not expected to be a straight up and to the right chart, or is it? Maybe-- how should investors be looking at it?

TOM LEE: Yeah, it's a hyper volatile asset. You know, again, I just point out the future's uncertain. But our road map for risk assets this year is that stocks would be pretty explosive out of the gate and peak in sometime either in late January, but as late as April around S&P 4,000 before a big drawdown happens. I think Bitcoin is going to-- if the S&P falls 10%, Bitcoin is going to have a huge drawdown. It could be down 40%, 50%. So I don't think it's a straight up with a ruler. It's going to be pretty jagged, but I think at the end of the year, Bitcoin is much higher.

AKIKO FUJITA: Did you say it could be down as much as 40%?

TOM LEE: Yes, but that's a pretty typical correction for crypto. In fact, I think last year, it had a couple of drawdowns nearly that size. So, that's what you get with a permissionless blockchain and experiencing hyper growth and adoption.

ZACK GUZMAN: I mean, you talk about kind of this risk, you know, the trigger that we're expected to see in the first half of 2021 that could spark this correction. A lot of people were wondering if that was going to be, you know, the outcome of the Democratic wins in Georgia. It doesn't seem to be, based on the market reaction we're seeing play out now.

So when you look ahead, I guess, our attention turns back to kind of the vaccine rollout. You have your eyes on Israel to see how things are going over there. But what's kind of your next judgment of what could trigger maybe that correction you see on the horizon and what investors should be watching now?

TOM LEE: Yeah, I mean, but foremost, it was never our view that the Senate race would have any impact on markets. I think that's someone's imaginary shouting at the market to do something. And so, I think that if there's something that's going to scare markets, it's kind of what you said. It would be the risk that the pandemic looks like we're losing ground.

I mean, right now, there's millions of people getting vaccinated. And hopefully, that leads to a slowdown in infection. So that's why we're watching Israel closely because Israel is the furthest along with percentage of the population. And so, presumably, if cases start to slow, that's good. But if they don't, I don't know. I think that would be very worrisome.

The other thing is, you know, the yield curve, which has really great predictive power on what the PMIs will do, the yield curve is saying that PMIs are potentially going to be peaking this month in January and then fall through May. And I think that that move towards 50 on the ISMs could make people think we're heading towards a recession. And that could be a reason for stocks to sell off. But the market's unpredictable.

But, again, I just want to be clear. Nobody at Fundstrat thought the Senate race would have any bearing on markets, even if people were sitting on cash. In fact, I would countertrade that and say that's one reason we thought the markets would be explosive out of the gates.

AKIKO FUJITA: Tom, I want to follow up on that point you just made about the virus itself and the spread that if, in fact, it felt like we're sort of losing control, I mean, you could argue, if we're following sort of what the health community is saying, this is about the worst that we're seeing in terms of the surge, things likely to get worse at a time when there are some signs that the vaccine rollout may not happen as rapidly as we initially thought.

How are you following the numbers here in the US? And how has the outlook on that front changed for you at all when you look at how slow the inoculations have actually gone in the first month of this vaccine?

TOM LEE: Yeah, I mean, CDC is releasing the data daily. And our data science team is pulling that data. And so, we have a good real-time snapshot. It comes out at 9:00 AM every day. I actually think the vaccine-- vaccinations are ramping up pretty dramatically. I mean, yesterday, they were 30% above the day before. And the pace is around 500,000 now. It's probably going to hit a million next week. And that would get to roughly 30% of Americans being vaccinated by April. And that's also when the winter kind of ends and COVID, hopefully, is retreating.

So, I think, you know, it's a mistake to think that out of the gates, if the vaccines are choppy now, and that's-- a lot of it's state implementation. It's not-- it's going to look like that in April. I'm sure it's going to ramp up. Look what happened with testing in the US. I mean, now the US has carpet bombed with testing. And in the beginning, it was slow. So, I'm not that worried about it. But yeah, if COVID mutates or if the vaccine doesn't work, that would be very worrisome.

AKIKO FUJITA: Tom Lee, always good to get your perspective here on the show. Fundstrat Global Advisors managing partner and head of research.

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The price movement in Bitcoin is textbook: Fundstrat Global Advisors' Tom Lee - Yahoo Finance

Bitcoin hits fresh record high near $42,000, climbing 40% so far this year – CNBC

In this photo illustration, visual representations of the digital cryptocurrency, Bitcoin are arranged on January 4, 2021 in Katwijk, Netherlands.

Yuriko Nakao | Getty Images

Bitcoin's price rallied to a fresh all-time high on Friday, smashing past $41,000 for the first time as investors increasingly view the cryptocurrency as an inflation hedge.

The world's most valuable cryptocurrency traded as high as $41,973 at 10:10 a.m. ET, according to data from Coin Metrics. It's since fallen back below the $41,000 mark, and was last trading up about 4% from a day earlier, at $40,590.

Bitcoin has extended its 2020 rally which saw it skyrocket over 300% into the new year. It is currently up roughly 40% so far in 2021, and on track to post its second-best week since the peak of the December 2017 surge.

The cryptocurrency's blistering bull run has attracted attention from institutional investors, who view it as a potential safe haven asset akin to gold. Strategists at JPMorgan recently said that bitcoin could hit $146,000 in the long term, as it competes with gold as an "alternative" currency.

The idea of bitcoin as a hedge against inflation has continued to gain traction among investors, amid unprecedented stimulus from governments around the world to tackle the coronavirus crisis. Analysts have argued such action could lead to a spike in inflation.

Still, skeptics like American stock broker Peter Schiff and economist Nouriel Roubini view bitcoin as a speculative asset with no intrinsic value and a market bubble likely to burst at some point.

Bank of America released a note Tuesday calling bitcoin the "mother-of-all bubbles," with an accompanying chart showing how the virtual currency's spectacular rise compares to other market bubbles like the dotcom boom of the late 1990s and the U.S. housing bubble in the mid-2000s.

There are signs of a sharp rise in demand for cryptocurrencies from retail investors, who fear they may miss out on the action. Crypto exchanges such as Coinbase and Binance have seen spikes in activity, often resulting in technical issues on their platforms, while Google search interest in "bitcoin" rose significantly at the start of the month.

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Bitcoin hits fresh record high near $42,000, climbing 40% so far this year - CNBC

Bill Miller says bitcoin becomes less risky the higher the price goes – CNBC

Value investor Bill Miller said Friday he believes owning bitcoin becomes a safer investment decision the higher the price of the digital coin gets.

Bitcoin was trading over $40,000 per coin Friday afternoon, having posted a record high of almost $42,000 earlier in the day. The cryptocurrency has been on a tear since March, which coincides with governments around the world undertaking massive stimulus efforts to offset the impacts of the coronavirus pandemic.

"It gets less risky the higher it goes" because it is still early in the adoption cycle, Miller said on "The Exchange." "That's the opposite of what happens with most stocks."

"Bitcoin's total supply is growing less than 2% a year and it's obvious by the price that the demand is growing much, much faster than that. As long as that obtains, bitcoin is likely to go higher and perhaps considerably higher," added Miller, founder and chief investment officer of Miller Value Partners.

Miller, who managed a fund that beat theS&P 500for 15 straight years while at Legg Mason, said he did not have a specific price target for bitcoin but rather he has "price expectations."

"I think that bitcoin ... should probably be up 50% to 100% from here in the next 12 to 18 months. And if you were to ask me the over or under, I would definitely say it would be much more likely to be higher than lower," he said.

Bitcoin has had dramatic corrections in the past, and Miller cautioned investors that the cryptocurrency's volatility is unlikely to go away any time soon, even as more institutional investors get behind it. "I think if you can't take that, you probably should not own bitcoin," he said.

"Bitcoin tends to move in spurts, which tend to be followed by corrections," Miller added. "I think there have been three corrections of 80%, which is normal in this type of very, very early technology with a very, very big total addressable market."

The price of bitcoin has experienced a robust ascent, particularly during the fall and into the new year. Since Sept. 1, the digital coin's value has risen about 230%.

Increased adoption from institutional investors has been credited with helping fuel the rise, with the likes of Paul Tudor Jones and Stanley Druckenmillerpitching bitcoin as a strong hedge against inflation. BlackRock's Rick Rieder in November touted it as a potential alternative to gold.

Miller, for his part, has owned the cryptocurrency for years.

In January 2018, Miller told CNBC he started to buy bitcoin around 2014 or 2015 at an average cost of $350 per coin. At that time, he said he had moved his bitcoin holdings into a separate fund. On Friday, Miller said that was still the case, but explained he is hoping to bring about rule changes to make it easier to own in his primary funds.

"We own bitcoin in a partnership that my partner, Samantha McLemore, started recently called Patient Capital, and it's about a 5% position in there," he said. "We don't own it in the fund because it's very, very difficult to do that. We're looking right now at the regulatory aspects of that and considering having the SEC give us the go-ahead to do that in our funds."

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Bill Miller says bitcoin becomes less risky the higher the price goes - CNBC