Category Archives: Bitcoin
COVID-19 And Jerome Powell Will Test Bitcoin’s Resilience – Forbes
Rainbow and Stay Home Stay Safe chalk drawings on pavement during Covid19 in UK.
On Thursday, bitcoin price dropped approximately 8% off the back of equities falling the furthest since March following fears of a second wave of COVID-19. Furthermore, the day prior, the Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated his intention to keep interest rates close to zero through 2022, while pumping at least $120 billion a month into the financial system for the foreseeable future, which spooked the V shaped recovery expectation.
If the economy has to operate at less than full capacity for an extended period of time from COVID-19, several high profile macro strategists like Raoul Pal expect the end of the relief rally (V shape recovery hopes) before transitioning into an insolvency crisis, i.e. firms will not have the cash flow to service their debts if the global economy remains hampered by COVID-19.
Pal stated that, Bond yields are about to sound the fire alarm for The Insolvency phase and the end of The Hope phase. Bond yields are the truth. Keep an eye on this.
Bloomberg.com
Pals warning signal is bond yields sliding into negative territory, signaling deflation and increasingly extreme monetary and fiscal measures enacted to stave off the destructive tide of dollar swelling.
In 2020, the persistent question of whether bitcoin has transitioned to a true store of value asset from a risk asset, has been on full display. The general proxy market participants look at is the correlation between bitcoin and S&P 500. The correlation was elevated in early 2020, dissipated after the liquidity crunch, and has since re-coupled considerably, spiking to near all-time highs.
Skew.com
The tandem plummet of bitcoin and equities has re-ignited risk asset claims again, i.e. if equities continue to decline, so will bitcoin. The simplest way to analyze this notion is by looking at bitcoins data metrics and long-term resiliency, and overall economic outlook.
Bitcoin is 100% being used as a store of value by citizens and market participants around the world, including Paul Tudor Jones. However, it still tracks risk asset movements given its transition to preferred store of value (displacing Gold) is still underway. Its nascency, coupled with panic selling during insolvency phases, could produce price weakness for bitcoin in the short-term.
Hurst Exponent, a measure of market momentum, has fallen from 0.70 to 0.69, but remains elevated despite recent price weakness. A value above 0.65 signifies a reversal in bullish momentum whereas a value of 0.35 signifies a reversal in bear momentum.
At the time of writing, Hurst appears to be in the initial phases of rolling over, which would produce further downside for bitcoin price.
Valiendero Digital Assets, blocktap.io
Additionally, hourly estimated volatility has risen slightly from 24 basis points to 24.4 basis points. The increase is too small and early to offer a declarative signal, but volatility might be in the early stages of expansion. This notion coupled with the current Hurst value, appears to be signaling that further downside is on the horizon.
Valiendero Digital Assets, blocktap.io
The current data metrics are suggesting that bullish momentum for bitcoin is waning. This notion coupled with economic fears might continue to drag bitcoins price down in the short-term.
The mere fact that bitcoin is still alive given how far it has come in such a short period of time without any governmental assistance or corporate preferential treatment, i.e. a true grassroots adoption campaign, is remarkable. A principal contributing factor is bitcoins viral narrative properties which have translated into real-life economic resiliency.
Bravenewcoin.com, Fox-Lent, Cate & Bates, Matthew & Linkov, Igor. (2015).
In particular, global markets over the past decades have become increasingly fragile given their interconnectedness, complexity, and persistent government intervention.
Bravenewcoin.com, OECD, Resilience Strategies and Approaches to Contain Systemic Threats
Historically, bitcoin has proven to be quite resilient in terms of recovery and absorption (top left corner), whereas traditional financial assets have drifted further towards the bottom right corner.
Thus, bitcoins price may fall in the interim given its data metrics and potential economic headwinds, but its resilience, especially amidst zero government assistance, suggests its store of value utilization will only be expedited in the longer term.
The author owns bitcoin and ethereum at the time of writing.
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COVID-19 And Jerome Powell Will Test Bitcoin's Resilience - Forbes
3 Reasons Why Bitcoin Price Continues to Reject at $10,000 – Cointelegraph
Within the last hour, the Bitcoin (BTC) price rose to $10,180 on BitMEX before quickly reversing to $9,600. The quick rejection means that for the third time in 30 days, Bitcoinsprice has rejected at the $10,000 resistance level.
Three factors that may have contributed to the volatility are: the Federal Reserves Federal Open Market Committeemeeting, the liquidation of $14 million worth of short contracts, and the continued resilience of the multi-year resistance area from $10,000$10,500.
BTC paints a darth maul candle at BitMEX. Source: Tradingview
The Fed had an FOMC meeting shortly before the sudden spike in Bitcoins volatility. During the meeting, Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell stated the jobmarket may have hit rockbottom.
Since March, institutional investors have been cautious about the stock markets short-term trend due to the state of the labor market.
The unemployment rate was initially projected to remain in the double digits and this was a major concern to high-net-worth investors. To shield against downside risk, these investors took shelter in safer alternatives like low-risk bonds.
According to Welt market analyst Holger Zschaepitz, Powell said:
We want investors to price in risk like markets should. [He] says Fed would never hold back support for the economy because it thinks asset prices are too high. Popping asset bubble would hurt job-seekers.
Despite the positive data coming out of the FOMC meeting, both the United Statesstock market and Bitcoin price dropped after it was held.
The trend of the largest digital asset on CoinMarketCap and equities suggests that as soon as the Fed meeting ended, a sell-the-news pullback occurred.
Within a 30-minute window, $14 million worth of Bitcoin shorts were liquidated on BitMEX alone. Compared to other exchanges, the price of BTC rose higher on BitMEX by around $100.
BitMEX XBTUSD liquidations. Source: Skew
As the price of Bitcoin hit $9,600 in a 4% drop within less than 15 minutes, another $2 million worth of longs were liquidated.
In total, in about an hour, around $16 million worth of futures contracts were liquidated in quick succession.
Due to the decline in spot volume in the Bitcoin market since early May, the futures market has accounted for a large portion of the daily BTC volume.
When tens of millions of dollars worth of futures contracts are liquidated in a highly volatile price move in a short period of time, it can cause the price of BTC to move quickly ineither direction.
Since mid-2019, the $10,000$10,500 area has acted as a strong resistance zone for Bitcoin. Every time the price of BTC attempted to break out of this range, it was met with a brutal pullback.
Recently, the price of Bitcoin surpassed $10,000 moments before its big fall to $9,600. Cryptocurrency investor Koroush AK said the move reduced the importance of $9,850 as another resistance level.
He said:
This move was significant. $9,850 is now less important as a resistance. $10,000 is now more important.
In the near-term, the sudden upsurge may weaken the barrier BTC has to break to see an extended rally. However, it also leaves BTC vulnerable to a steeper pullback given that it hit an important liquidity area.
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3 Reasons Why Bitcoin Price Continues to Reject at $10,000 - Cointelegraph
Bitcoin Is More Than an Inflation Hedge – CoinDesk – CoinDesk
While fears of a great monetary inflation have driven the recent bitcoin narrative, other aspects like censorship resistance and peaceful protest matter just as much.
When bitcoins halving coincided with the most aggressive central bank policy of all time, it set a clear narrative framework forbitcoinas an inflationary hedge. This was captured by people like legendary hedge fund investor Paul Tudor Jones, who warned of a great monetary inflation.
In this episode, NLW argues 1) that inflation could be a dangerous narrative to focus on too closely due to a number of countervailing deflationary forces, and 2) there are a variety of other narratives that are just as important to bitcoin, including:
The leader in blockchain news, CoinDesk is a media outlet that strives for the highest journalistic standards and abides by a strict set of editorial policies. CoinDesk is an independent operating subsidiary of Digital Currency Group, which invests in cryptocurrencies and blockchain startups.
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Bitcoin Is More Than an Inflation Hedge - CoinDesk - CoinDesk
3 Reasons Bitcoin Price Could Be on the Verge of a New Uptrend – Cointelegraph
The price of Bitcoin (BTC) has risen by 170% in the last three months from $3,600 to $9,700. Despite this immense 3 month recovery, a series of fundamental factors point to the possibility of another uptrend in the near-term.
Three reasons Bitcoin is likely to see an upsurge are increasing exchange outflow, miner revenue finding support, and the rising number of so-called hodlers or investors that hold BTC for prolonged periods.
When the outflow of Bitcoin from exchanges increases, it suggests investors are preparing to hold BTC for the long term.
Typically, exchange users withdraw Bitcoin with the intent of sending the BTC to a personal wallet and this trend often indicates that users have less appetite to trade Bitcoin in the foreseeable future.
The decline in Bitcoin exchange outflow coincides with a recovery in miner revenue. As miners generate more BTC through mining in the aftermath of the latest hashrate difficulty adjustment, existing miners are becoming more profitable.
If the operational costs to mine Bitcoin declines, the need to sell more BTC in the short-term for major mining centers could also decrease. There is a possibility that the outflow of BTC is partially coming from miners.
Verifiable on-chain data shows that miners sold less Bitcoin than they mined in the past week. In the last seven days miners mined about 6,694 BTC and data shows they sold 6,384 BTC, netting a positive inventory of 310 BTC.
Bitcoin miners sold less than they mined in the past week. Source: ByteTree
A cryptocurrency trader known as Byzantine General wrote:
Exchange outflow keeps going up. Miner revenue is finding support. Miners are hodling more and more. So even if the chart doesn't look very exciting, I wonder where bears think the big sell pressure is gonna come from.
Overall, miners have been moving less Bitcoin and applying less selling pressure on the spot price. The combination of fewer sellers in the Bitcoin market and a consistent increase in long-term hodlers raises the likelihood of a continued rally.
The prediction of a new phase of upward momentum for Bitcoin in the near-term is primarily based on the assumption that miners will not sell much BTC in the coming months. But, sharp shifts in BTC price and the difficulty to mine BTC could quickly cause a trend change.
An ideal scenario for a strong rally in the third quarter of 2020 would require that the price of Bitcoin remains stable above $10,000 and that the amount of BTC sold by miners on a daily basis continues to decline.
If this happens, it would signal that the price of Bitcoin broke out of a multi-year resistance with growing confidence of both investors and miners, making a proper long-term bull market possible.
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3 Reasons Bitcoin Price Could Be on the Verge of a New Uptrend - Cointelegraph
BTSE Exchange Offers Futures Contracts Tracking Tether Gold and Priced in Bitcoin – CoinDesk – CoinDesk
Bitcoin has has long been feted as a new form of money, a two-finger salute to the establishment, even as a digital equivalent to gold, but its not often prized for its stability. That could change with the introduction of a new futures contract.
Crypto exchange BTSE has taken the unorthodox decision to price tether gold futures contracts in bitcoin, rather than in the more conventional U.S. dollar.
Heres how it works: Its a perpetual contract a future without expiry that tracks the value of one tether gold (XAUT) token, which itself tracks the value of one troy ounce of physical gold. Its also built on the ERC20 token standard, which means it can be pretty much traded on any crypto exchange.
Unlike other contracts, this one is priced in bitcoin. While the USD spot price of XAUT tokens is currently $1,720, according to CoinGecko, BTSEs contracts are trading around the 0.17 BTC mark.
The contract allows traders to compare and speculate on whether bitcoin or gold will turn out to have the most demand and outperform the other, as a new store of value.
Imagine it as gold versus bitcoin, a BTSE spokesperson said.
Still, a gold/BTC contract is bound to raise a few eyebrows.
Like regular futures, perpetual contracts have forced liquidations. If the spot price crosses a certain threshold the contract automatically settles, at a loss to the holder. Crypto observers are all too familiar with these and its not unknown for millions of dollars worth of USD-quoted bitcoin contracts to liquidate in one fell swoop.
Surely, a contract quoted in bitcoin would run the risk of liquidating all the time?
BTSE reckons thats not likely because bitcoin and gold have a positive correlation against the dollar.
If the two assets are positively correlated, then the price volatility of this new instrument is, by right, even lower than Gold/USD, a spokesperson said. Thats because the price of gold and bitcoin will likely fall by an equivalent ratio, so the contract remains, more or less, stable.
Bitcoin has long been dubbed digital gold without having any sort of relationship with it. That started to change earlier this year when, against the dollar, it developed a correlation to the yellow metal.
In a report in April, Coin Metrics said the correlation between bitcoin and gold suddenly increased on March 12 Black Thursday. The market, they argued, might be treating both as safe havens during increases in quantitative easing and monetary inflation.
Revisiting the relationship last week, Coin Metrics said: The correlation between gold [and bitcoin] has consistently maintained relatively high levels for several months now, a phenomenon that has not been historically observed.
Not everyone agrees. Charles Bovaird, vice president at Quantum Economics, says the relationship between gold and bitcoin over the past 90 days remains very weak, at under 0.35. In other words, the correlation has not been high enough to be significant, at least during this particular time frame, he said.
But BTSE argues that in a darkening macro backdrop, where central banks are increasingly relied upon to save the day, the market will begin to treat bitcoin more like a store of value.
As it does, so will its correlation to gold improve, making the prospect of forced liquidations for its gold contract priced in bitcoin less likely. In stark comparison, contracts quoted in dollars, which isnt correlated to gold and whos value could change depending on the effects of increased central bank stimulus, might feel the pressure a little more.
If that happens, bitcoin would become more stable than the greenback.
The leader in blockchain news, CoinDesk is a media outlet that strives for the highest journalistic standards and abides by a strict set of editorial policies. CoinDesk is an independent operating subsidiary of Digital Currency Group, which invests in cryptocurrencies and blockchain startups.
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BTSE Exchange Offers Futures Contracts Tracking Tether Gold and Priced in Bitcoin - CoinDesk - CoinDesk
Bitcoin’s Forks Have Trounced Bitcoin This Year – CoinDesk – CoinDesk
While bitcoin has outperformed gold and the S&P 500 index in 2020, data shows even better returns among leading bitcoin fork cryptocurrencies.
These cryptocurrencies are created by copying the Bitcoin source code repository through a process called forking. Developers then adjust certain parameters and features in the copied code to create a similar but distinct protocol. According to data from Messari, the three largest bitcoin (BTC) forks by market capitalization are bitcoin cash (BCH), bitcoin sv (BSV), and bitcoin gold (BTG).
Using an equal-weighted index of the four cryptocurrencies the returns are almost 3.5 times greater than bitcoin alone for the year to date, based onTradingViewdata. Since the beginning of 2019, moreover, this index outperformed bitcoin by a total of 435 percentage points. An equal-weighted index of just the top three bitcoin forks returned gains 3.1 times greater than bitcoin, year to date.
Individually, bitcoin sv and bitcoin gold have outperformed bitcoin by 61 and 37 percentage points, respectively, since the start of 2020. Bitcoin cash outperformed bitcoin until May. Year to date, the largest bitcoin fork has underperformed bitcoin by 11 percentage points, according to TradingView data.
Some analysts arent surprised by these returns. Cryptocurrencies with low and middle market capitalizations like these bitcoin forks tend to outperform bitcoin during marketwide bull runs, said Aditya Das, market analyst at research firm Brave New Coin. Similar trends were observed during the 2017 bullish market cycle, he explained.The miner subsidy for bitcoin and its forks also halved this year, an event that occurs once every four years and is a bullish catalyst for some investors.
These returns are mostly attributable to a strong positive correlation with bitcoins price inflation combined with higher volatility, according to Louis Liu, founder and CIO at Mimesis Capital. Nonetheless, there is definitely alpha in bitcoin forks, he said, referring to the excess returns. However, he says they were not the result of fundamental value added by improving on bitcoin.
As is usually the case, greater returns come with increased risk. Liquidity is one such concern, Das explained.
Only two of the industrys largest exchanges by traded volume, Binance and Bitfinex, support markets for all three top bitcoin forks, according to Nomics. Moreover, the largest bitcoin cash spot market, supported by Binance, is only one-tenth the size of the largest bitcoin market, also on Binance.
Forks such as bitcoin cash and bitcoin sv are likely being used purely as speculative instruments, said Kevin Kelly, former equity analyst at Bloomberg and co-founder of digital asset research firm Delphi Digital.
Whats more, he added, the liquidity profile and long-term value proposition of bitcoin forks is drastically different, if even existent, when compared to bitcoin.
UPDATE (June 9, 2020 14:46 UTC):This piece has been updated to reflect the returns of an equal-weighted index of bitcoin and its top three forks as 3.5 times greater than bitcoin returns, not 14 times greater as originally stated. Also added are returns of an equal-weighted index comprised of only the top three forks.
The leader in blockchain news, CoinDesk is a media outlet that strives for the highest journalistic standards and abides by a strict set of editorial policies. CoinDesk is an independent operating subsidiary of Digital Currency Group, which invests in cryptocurrencies and blockchain startups.
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Bitcoin's Forks Have Trounced Bitcoin This Year - CoinDesk - CoinDesk
Bitfinex Hackers Move Another $4.1 Million Bitcoin in Their Biggest Pay Day Yet | Exchanges – Bitcoin News
Cyber-thieves from the Bitfinex hack of four years ago continue to cash out, this time transferring the equivalent of $4.1 million in bitcoin to an unknown wallet address.
Crypto tracking tool Whale Alert reports that hackers moved 416 bitcoin (BTC) on June 11. The funds, valued at $4.1 million at the time of the transaction, were sent in 20 separate transactions, each bearing between 15 and 33 BTC.
This is perhaps the biggest pay day yet for the hackers. When the stolen money first moved in June and August 2019, about 170 BTC and 300 BTC worth around $2.3 million and $2.7 million at the time, respectively, flowed.
More recently, the thieves last moved $800,000 or 77.64 bitcoin on June 2. Another transfer of 28.4 BTC valued at $255,000 was executed on May 22. The coins are likely sold to unsuspecting buyers off the market.
Ever carried out in small quantities to provide a false sense of security, the transactions are typically timed to coincide with every increase in the price of bitcoin. BTC spiked sharply on Wednesday to just under $10,000, but the benchmark cryptocurrency once again faced strong resistance at that key level.
The digital asset has since slumped nearly 6% to $9,331 over the last 24 hours, according to data from markets.bitcoin.com. Bitcoin has repeatedly struggled to scale past the $10,000 barrier since the May 11 supply cut event, also known as halving.
The point is regarded as key towards unlocking the long-anticipated bull run, something that has tended to come with every previous halving.
All the three transfers by the Bitfinex hackers over the past three weeks happened almost simultaneously with the BTC price threatening a rise beyond $10,000.
Hackers have chipped away at their multi-million-dollar stash since making off with 120,000 BTC from Hong Kong-based crypto exchange Bitfinex in 2016. Valued at $72 million at the time, that stash of bitcoin is worth over $1.1 billion at current prices.
What do you think about the Bitfinex hackers moves? Let us know in the comments section below.
Image Credits: Shutterstock, Pixabay, Wiki Commons
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Bitfinex Hackers Move Another $4.1 Million Bitcoin in Their Biggest Pay Day Yet | Exchanges - Bitcoin News
Nightmare Come True: User Pays $2.6 Million in Transaction Fees to Send $134 of Ether | Altcoins – Bitcoin News
A record ethereum transaction fee has been paid today: $2.6 million to transfer $134.
The user probably mixed up the fields on the value of the transfer and the fee, eventually paying 10,668 ETH in fees, or $2.6 million, on a transaction mined by Sparkpool.
A nightmare come true, the customer sent 0.55 ether, worth $133.95, according to a record of transactions broadcast on the Ethereum (ETH) network. The money was sent to an address on the South Korean crypto exchange Bithumb.
The funds may be lost forever. Most blockchains are built to prevent transactions from being reversed once the sender confirms it.
Moreover, the fee may have since been distributed to the different miners under Sparkpool as a reward for processing transactions.
Sparkpool said in a tweet on June 10: We are further investigating the incident of unusually high tx feeThere will be a solution in the end.
The Chinese miner has previously repaid a user half of the 2,100 ETH accidentally paid as fees in a 0.1 ether transfer.
There is suspicion of underhand dealing, with some members of the Ethereum community alleging manipulation of the transaction by Sparkpool, or that it was an attempt at evading tax, or money laundering.
In general, the average ETH transaction fee is up more than 637% since January, as the network became congested due to a high number of transactions passing through it.
Transactional errors are not uncommon in the crypto industry, but they dont often come as big as the latest ether gaffe. In 2017, someone paid 50 bitcoin (BTC) in transaction fees to send just under 10 BTC.
Some analysts suggest that blockchain networks should be able to reject transactions if the fee exceeds the average highest fees of the previous 10 blocks mined, just in the same way, say, the Bitcoin blockchain rejects fees that are too low.
What do you think about errors in cryptocurrency transactions? Let us know in the comments section below.
Image Credits: Shutterstock, Pixabay, Wiki Commons
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Nightmare Come True: User Pays $2.6 Million in Transaction Fees to Send $134 of Ether | Altcoins - Bitcoin News
This bootstrapped startup built an eBay for Bitcoins and is heating up Indias crypto market – YourStory
India is headed towards one of its worst economic crises in 30 years, with all projections pointing towards negative GDP growth in 2020.However, over the last two months, local bitcoin trading, especially on peer-to-peer crypto exchanges, has reached record-breaking volumes.
This is believed to be a direct impact of the Supreme Court lifting RBIs unconstitutional two-year ban on cryptocurrencies in March, a few weeks before India went into a lockdown.
As a result, bitcoin (BTC) volumes traded in India have surpassed the spike of December 2017, when the digital currency was enjoying a bull run globally.
One of the biggest gainers of this recent spike is Paxful, a US-based P2P bitcoin exchange marketplace and cryptocurrency wallet.
Paxful co-founders Ray Youssef (right) and Artur Schaback
It is one of the newest entrants in Indias crypto economy, but has already surpassed other BTC exchanges in the market.
Bitcoin volumes on Paxful surged to a single-day high of $1.48 million on May 10, according to UsefulTulips, a crypto analytics firm. This is the highest for any platform in the country, ahead of closest peer LocalBitcoins.
Ray Youssef, Co-founder and CEO of Paxful, tells YourStory,
Paxful, which calls itself the eBay for Bitcoins, was founded in 2015 by Ray Youssef and Artur Schaback. It is, what the founders call, a people-powered marketplace where users can buy or sell bitcoins or even transact with over 7,300 vendors anywhere in the world.
Ray explains,
On Paxful, users can create their own cryptocurrency wallets to send, receive or store bitcoins. These transactions may happen between friends and family or traders and vendors. Money transfers can be done between two parties (P2P) by simply scanning a QR code or through a virtual payment address.
The startups goal is to democratise access to bitcoin and drive financial inclusion in emerging economies like India and Africa.
Paxful is a universal translator of money, which means that any form of money can be turned into any other form of money instantly, says the co-founder.
The Paxful app, which launched in 2019, allows users to stay abreast of their transaction history and global exchange rates in real time. The Android-only app has already crossed 100,000 downloads on Google Play Store, and is said to have ushered in an all-new ease of use for customers.
Coinciding with the rise in bitcoin trading in India since March-April, Paxful has witnessed record volumes on its platform.
In May, it recorded BTC trading volumes of $6.2 million, a 41 percent increase. It also grew new user signups from India by 12 percent for the month. For 2020, Paxfuls average monthly user sign-ups have grown by 28 percent, while average trading volumes are up $4.4 million.
Ray observes,
Paxful claims to have over three million users across the globe. The user base is growing at 40 percent year on year, while revenues are growing by 24 percent. Globally, it reported a 10x increase in bitcoin trading volume (from $2.2 million to $22.1 million) in H1 2020 over the same period in 2019.
Paxful Co-founder and COO Artur Schaback at the Bitcoin 2019 conference in San Francisco.
The platform charges an escrow fee to sellers. The percentage is undisclosed, but CoinDesk estimates it to be 1 percent of every transaction.
Interestingly, a large section of Paxful users are women. It is because this segment of the population, especially in developing economies, is largely unbanked or underbanked.
The more you make bitcoin visible, the more normal people will be able to use it. We are educating our traders that you dont need a lot of money to start, says the co-founder. However, some operational challenges remain.
Paxful is riding the popularity of bitcoin, the most well-known cryptocurrency in the world, according to surveys. (The next popular crypto is Ethereum.)
The 300-people startup is also looking to open its India office in Hyderabad by 2021. We were planning to launch this year, but it has been delayed due to COVID-19, the co-founder shares.
Team Paxful | Photo: Instagram
Paxful also wants to expand its B2B network in the country, and make bitcoins more acceptable in merchant payments as they provide the highest margins.
The startup operates in a market that is witnessing phenomenal growth. In the first quarter of 2020, $8.8 trillion was traded in cryptocurrencies globally, according to TokenInsight (a blockchain and crypto research firm).
Ray signs off by saying, The Indian market holds great potential and importance for the future of the crypto-economy. We are actively focusing our efforts on bringing cryptocurrency to the masses to aid in the eradication of poverty, boost economies, and create jobs, especially post-COVID-19.
(Edited by Teja Lele Desai)
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This bootstrapped startup built an eBay for Bitcoins and is heating up Indias crypto market - YourStory
Stocks, Safe Havens and Hodlers 5 Things to Eye in Bitcoin This Week – Cointelegraph
Bitcoin (BTC) is going into the third week of its new halving cycle just $550 away from five figures but what could really impact price this week?
Cointelegraph takes a look at the main factors that could help or hinder the biggest cryptocurrency over the coming days.
Traditional markets are off to a rocky start this week. Protests in the United States have coupled with President Donald Trumps softer response to China over Hong Kong to worry already panicky stocks.
As a result of this uncertainty, safe-haven assets are rallying. Gold is up around $50 since May 27, at press time trading at $1,743 near its highs from 2011.
Oil is also falling in the U.S., something which could benefit local cryptocurrency miners, Andreas Antonopoulos has argued.
As Cointelegraph reported, Bitcoin has shown increased decoupling from macro movements in recent weeks, and the potential to follow gold remains.
Data currently shows that Bitcoin has delivered returns of nearly 50% in Q2 alone.
Bitcoin quarterly returns. Source: Skew
All things being equal, however, Bitcoin still faces a downward difficulty adjustment in three days time.
One of the Bitcoin networks most important features, automatic adjustments ensure miners remain incentivized to participate in transaction validation.
As noted previously, Bitcoin has not had two back-to-back downward adjustments since the bottom of its bear market in December 2018.
Bitcoin hash rate estimate 1-month chart. Source: Blockchain
Unlike difficulty, the hash rate is slowly creeping up this week, reaching roughly 95 quintillion hashes per second on Monday. The adjustment should further this upward trend in the short term.
Last months halving has cut miners BTC revenue by 50%, but outflows accelerated after the event. For a time, miners were selling more BTC than they earned.
That trend has died down over the past ten days, and outflows have reduced dramatically.
Bitcoin mining pool outflows 1-year chart. Source: CryptoQuant
The reduced desire to sell BTC holdings coincides with consumer activity hodlers have withdrawn more from exchanges than at any time since the December 2018 lows.
In addition, 60% of the Bitcoin supply has now not moved in a year or more something true for the past five months, despite considerable price fluctuations.
Whether exchange withdrawals are an indication that investors expect a bull run is currently a topic of debate in analytic circles.
CME Bitcoin futures look set to open just a short space away from where they closed on Friday.
This reduced gap in the market leaves less chance of a sudden move up or down by Bitcoin to fill it.
As Cointelegraph has often noted, BTC/USD tends to make up for gaps left in futures. The past two weeks were no exception, with large and small gaps getting filled within days of opening.
CME Bitcoin futures with a gap at $9,510. Source: TradingView
At the focal price point of $9,500, Bitcoin is behaving exactly as forecast, according to the creator of the historically very accurate stock-to-flow price model.
As Cointelegraph reported, June 1 produced a crucial red dot on the model, which has previously signaled the start of a bullish phase.
For the stock to flow, each bullish phase ups the price by an order of magnitude this time around, highs by 2024 could reach $576,000 or more.
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Stocks, Safe Havens and Hodlers 5 Things to Eye in Bitcoin This Week - Cointelegraph