Bitcoin is known as an extremely volatile asset. This reputation, however, does not live up to the reality anymore, as BTC volatility has been declining steadily, especially in the past year.

In fact, Bitcoins 5-day volatility hit its lowest this August, when it fell below that of the S&P500, tech stocks, and gold (Bloomberg).

Trading volumes are historically low, liquidity is drying up, and the market looks disinterested overall.

What could this mean for Bitcoin?

One view is that such a situation is the new norm. As an increasing number of institutions, known for their longer investment horizons, chose some sort of Bitcoin exposure, the share of speculators is set to drop, together with volatility. This opinion implies that the possibility of a spot Bitcoin ETF approval is already priced in.

An opposing point of view is that low volatility is the calm before the storm. The markets are waiting for a breakout, and any major news could lead to massive price swings to either side. This also implies that the spot ETF possibility is yet to have an impact on the price.

The media accident that happened this Monday gave reason to the latter. As CoinTelegraph, a major crypto news outlet, retweeted fake news about the SEC approving BlackRocks Bitcoin ETF, BTC price shot up almost 10% in a matter of minutes.

The price fully corrected soon after the market players realized it was a mistake; however, it was too late for the owners of over $100 million in short positions that were liquidated.

Interestingly, after these swings, the price continued rising, settling around $28,400 at the time of writing.

Could CoinTelegraphs blooper take Bitcoin out of its slumber? It might be too early to tell, but a deeper look at the current state of the market could provide us with greater insight.

Long-term holders domination

One of the most important reasons for the low liquidity is the low number of active market participants. According to Glassnode, an on-chain analytics firm, the current market is dominated by long-term holders whose share in the total Bitcoin supply reached an all-time high of 76% last month.

The wealth distribution cycle graph shows that new investors started to appear at the beginning of the year. However, they are still relatively few, which, combined with HODLers reluctance to sell, makes for a boring market.

Short-term holders capitulation

Glassnodes data shows that a super-majority of short-term holders now find themselves in a negative position, which is a sign of potential seller exhaustion.

In September, the company broke down their cost basis, revealing that BTC price was sitting at the edge of a cluster of supply dominated by short-term holders.

Such a market structure where most short-term holders experience increasing losses may lead to a potential capitulation within this group. This, in turn, could take Bitcoin price down.

Despite this alarming graph, however, we did not notice any significant downside movement in the last month.

Written by D.Center

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Is the Bitcoin market on the verge of a breakout? - Marketscreener.com

The logo of Ferrari is seen in the headquarters as CEO Benedetto Vigna unveils the company's new long term strategy, in Maranello, Italy, June 15, 2022. Picture taken June 15, 2022. REUTERS/Flavio Lo Scalzo/File Photo Acquire Licensing Rights

MILAN, Oct 14 (Reuters) - Ferrari (RACE.MI) has started to accept payment in cryptocurrency for its luxury sports cars in the U.S. and will extend the scheme to Europe following requests from its wealthy customers, its marketing and commercial chief told Reuters.

The vast majority of blue-chip companies have steered clear of crypto as the volatility of bitcoin and other tokens renders them impractical for commerce. Patchy regulation and high energy usage have also prevented the spread of crypto as a means of payment.

These include electric carmaker Tesla (TSLA.O), which in 2021 began to accept payment in bitcoin, the biggest crypto coin, before CEO Elon Musk halted it because of environmental concerns.

Ferrari's Chief Marketing and Commercial Officer Enrico Galliera told that Reuters cryptocurrencies had made efforts to reduce their carbon footprint through the introduction of new software and a larger use of renewable sources.

"Our target to reach for carbon neutrality by 2030 along our whole value chain is absolutely confirmed," he said in an interview.

Ferrari said the decision came in response to requests from the market and dealers as many of its clients have invested in crypto.

"Some are young investors who have built their fortunes around cryptocurrencies," he said. "Some others are more traditional investors, who want to diversify their portfolios."

While some cryptocurrencies, such as the second-largest, ether , have improved their energy efficiency, bitcoin still attracts criticism for its energy-intensive mining.

Ferrari shipped more than 1,800 cars to its Americas region, which includes the U.S., in the first half of this year.

Galliera did not say how many cars Ferrari expected to sell through crypto. He said the company's order portfolio was strong and fully booked well into 2025, but the company wanted to test this expanding universe.

"This will help us connect to people who are not necessarily our clients but might afford a Ferrari," he said.

The Italian company, which sold 13,200 cars in 2022, with prices starting at over 200,000 euros ($211,000) and going up to 2 million euros, plans to extend the crypto scheme to Europe by the first quarter of next year and then to other regions where crypto is legally accepted.

Europe, the Middle East and Africa (EMEA) is Ferrari's largest region, accounting for 46% of its total car shipments in the first half of this year.

"Interest is the same in the U.S. and Europe, we don't see huge differences," Galliera said.

Countries where cryptocurrencies are restricted include China.

Ferrari has turned to one of the biggest cryptocurrency payment processors, BitPay, for the initial phase in the U.S., and will allow transactions in bitcoin, ether and USDC, one of the largest so-called stablecoins. Ferrari might use other payment processors in different regions.

"Prices will not change, no fees, no surcharges if you pay through cryptocurrencies," Galliera said.

Bitpay will immediately turn cryptocurrency payments into traditional currency on behalf of Ferrari's dealers, so they are protected from price swings.

"This was one of our main goals: avoiding, both our dealers and us, to directly handle cryptocurrencies and being shielded from their wide fluctuations," Galliera said.

As the payment processor, BitPay will ensure that the virtual currencies come from legitimate sources and not derived from criminal activity or to be used to launder the proceeds of crime or evade tax.

Ferrari's marketing and commercial chief said that the majority of its U.S. dealers have already signed up, or are about to agree, to the scheme

"I am confident others will join soon," Galliera said.

($1 = 0.9495 euros)

Reporting by Giulio Piovaccari in Milan; additional reporting by Tom Wilson in London; Editing by Louise Heavens

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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Ferrari to accept crypto as payment for its cars in the US - Reuters

Ark Invest, led by the visionary Chief Executive Officer Cathie Wood, has risen to prominence in recent years due to its innovation-centric investment strategies. Its priorities on assets with disruptive potential such as DNA sequencing, artificial intelligence (AI), and blockchain technology make the firm a natural fan and notable advocate of Bitcoin(BTC 3.33%) thanks to its status as the most decentralized, secure, and valuable cryptocurrency.

To shed more light on Bitcoin, Ark publishes a comprehensive report every month delving into blockchain-based metrics, investor behavior trends, and macroeconomic factors, providing valuable context on the crypto's status and potential trajectory. In the firm's most recent report, for the month of September, several crucial insights and trends were highlighted, suggesting the path Bitcoin might take in the coming months.

Image source: Getty Images.

One of the key indicators emphasized in Ark's report is the remarkable rise in the percentage of long-term holders. Now at an all-time high, 76% of Bitcoin's total available supply hasn't moved in more than 155 days, the point at which short-term holders change to long term.

This time frame might seem arbitrary, but analytics firm Glassnode has found it to be a statistically significant benchmark as those who hold past 155 days are more likely to be smart-money investors and can provide insight into market sentiment.

Ark's analysts point out that this trend of an increasing number of long-term holders aligns with other transitional periods in Bitcoin's history, suggesting that this bear market might not be fundamentally different from previous ones.

Typically, long-term holders enter the market in droves and pick up coins on the cheap, creating an accumulation phase usually associated with post-bear markets and early stages of bull markets. Moreover, the increase in long-term holders further reduces the digital currency's already scarce supply, potentially setting the stage for a significant price surge should a bull market return.

Ark's embrace of innovation and admiration for Bitcoin extends beyond just an anecdotal report. The firm also creates unique metrics and indicators to assess its current position relative to past cycles. The latest report highlighted two specific statistics supporting Ark's stance that the cryptocurrency is currently trading at a relative discount.

The profit/loss ratio, comparing the number of coins transacted at a profit to those at a loss, currently hovers just above 1, indicating a decline in investor "exuberance" compared to earlier in the year, when Bitcoin's price jumped more than 80% in just five months. When reaching these levels in the past, the crypto was either in the depths of a bear market or clawing its way back into a bull market. Ark sees it as the latter.

Ark highlighted another crucial metric, the realized-profits-to-realized-cap ratio, which is currently at its lowest point since the beginning of the year, further indicating oversold conditions. This ratio measures profit-taking among Bitcoin investors against its realized cap, rather than the more commonly used market cap. Since realized cap is calculated by multiplying the last price at which every Bitcoin was transacted instead of valuing every coin at its current price, it offers a more sensitive and less misleading assessment than market cap.

By quantifying the amount of realized profits against Bitcoin's realized cap, Ark is able to measure buying and selling activity more clearly. Considering Bitcoin has historically entered the oversold territory of this ratio only seven times in its history, today could be an opportune moment for investors.

Ark's report doesn't shy away from acknowledging current unfavorable macroeconomic conditions and the potential challenges they pose to Bitcoin's bull market return. The prolonged interest rate hikes and tighter liquidity anticipated in markets globally could present hurdles for cryptocurrencies since typically these assets have thrived in environments with liquidity surpluses.

However, despite short-term challenges, Ark remains bullish on Bitcoin in the long run. Its analysis suggests that the cryptocurrency's resiliency and favorable developments of on-chain metrics such as the number of active owners and mining difficulty, put it in a potentially lucrative position as it navigates the fine line between bear and bull markets.

RJ Fulton has positions in Bitcoin. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Bitcoin. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

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Cathie Wood's Latest Bitcoin Insights: Is Now the Time to Buy? - The Motley Fool

Mr Galvin added that DACM had been fielding interest from institutional and sophisticated investors, including family offices, looking for exposure to alternative assets.

We only deal with wholesale, sophisticated investors and the vast majority are coming from overseas, he said.

Theyre probably at 1 or 2 per cent allocation [...] maybe up to 5 per cent in some cases.

At the Financial Reviews first Crypto Summit in April last year, SkyBridge Capital founder Anthony Scaramucci predicted bitcoin would hit $US500,000. At the time it was trading around $US50,000 but more than halved in the following six months.

On Monday, bitcoin was trading around $US44,000.

Self-managed superannuation funds have also piled into bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, with the latest Australian Tax Office data showing more than $950 million is allocated to the asset class.

Both Ms Wade and Mr Galvin cited the ongoing push by global institutions to establish exchange-traded cryptocurrency funds as a potential catalyst for inflows to the industry.

Several traditional wealth management giants, including BlackRock, Fidelity, Ark Invest, VanEck, JPMorgan and BetaShares, have all signalled to US regulators their desire to operate ETFs that track bitcoins price. The decision remains with US regulators.

Vimal Gor, who left fund manager Pendal in 2022 to join alternative fund manager Trovio, said when a bitcoin EFT was launched he expected institutional adoption to happen quickly.

Institutional adoption begets more institutional adoption. If you go back to pre-the Blackrock ETF filing, it was debatable whether it was even considered an asset class [...] theres no question whether its an asset class now, he said.

Im a strong believer that institutional adoption and retail adoption will happen a lot quicker when an ETF comes and I think that will turbocharge the whole space.

Speaking at an earlier session, Jeff Yew, the chief executive of crypto asset manager Monochrome, also noted the big names backing bitcoin ETFs, which would hold actual cryptocurrencies for investors, as a sign of institutional interest.

That shifted the entire taboo of talking about bitcoin in professional finance. The career risk of talking about bitcoin, or having that sort of conversation is now almost fully removed in the US, he said.

Jeff Yew, founder and CEO of Monochrome, is trying to get two new crypto ETFs approved in Australia.Michael Quelch

I think the ETF will unlock a lot of institutional wave investment into crypto that wouldnt otherwise touch it outside the regulatory structure.

Mr Yew, former chief executive of cryptocurrency exchange Binance Australia, has been trying to get two new crypto ETFs approved in Australia, lodging his intention with the Australian Securities and Investments Commission and the ASX.

While Mr Yew did not disclose if or when Monochromes proposed ETF would be likely to hit the market, he did say he was watching US developments. Mr Yew pointed to January 10, which marks final deadline for the US SEC to review ARKs ETF application, as a date he was watching closely.

January 10 is an update that a lot of people in this industry are laser-focused on. Were doing the same thing as well.

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Bitcoin price: Traders tip bitcoin to hit $US100,000 - The Australian Financial Review

While Bitcoin (BTC 3.37%) has soared more than 60% in value in 2023, it's still also more than 60% below its all-time high from November 2021. The current price sits at just around $26,750, pressured by higher interest rates and uncertain economic backdrop.

With this top cryptocurrency trading below $30,000 for the past 2 1/2 months, investors might be smart to take a closer look at adding Bitcoin to their portfolios. Here are some compelling reasons that's a good move.

Looking out even 12 months from now, it's possible that Bitcoin's price will be significantly higher than today, which means buying it for less than $30,000 would look like a real steal in hindsight. Some powerful potential catalysts are on the horizon in the near term.

Every four or so years, Bitcoin undergoes what's called a halving. This is when the amount miners are rewarded for processing transactions gets cut in half, essentially reducing the rate at which new coins are created. Looking at past halving cycles shows us that Bitcoin could see major bullish sentiment. Between the last halving on May 11, 2020, to Bitcoin's all-time high, the price skyrocketed 661%.

Basic economic theory can explain what's going on. If Bitcoin's supply of new issuance gets cut in half but demand remains steady or even rises, there is support for a higher price. The next halving is scheduled for April of next year.

The biggest news coming from the world of Bitcoin in the past several months has been that huge asset management firms have filed applications with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to approve spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds. While the SEC hasn't made any decisions yet, instead pushing back its deadlines, there is a lot of enthusiasm that these financial products will get approved.

The belief is that if this happens, the floodgates will open, introducing fresh capital -- and lots of it -- with a regulated, accessible, liquid, and easy way to gain exposure to Bitcoin. Should this happen, it could be viewed as a major milestone for Bitcoin, transforming it into a legitimate financial asset. And again, with higher demand, the price could soar.

Another catalyst, the most unpredictable, is the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Since March 2022, the central bank has been on an aggressive path of hiking interest rates with the sole intention of getting inflation back to its 2% target. There might be one more rate hike before 2023 ends.

However, I have the view that interest rates will have to come down sooner rather than later, mainly due to how much debt the government carries. Unless the government wants interest payments to keep taking up a sizable chunk of public spending, a looser monetary policy, characterized by lower interest rates, will need to happen.

A more accommodative Fed is usually the key ingredient for a very favorable backdrop for risky assets, Bitcoin included. Investors will go further down the risk curve to achieve better returns. And this, again, can be a boon for Bitcoin's price.

These near-term catalysts could be powerful price drivers for Bitcoin, but their potential positive impact is far from a sure thing. I'm always skeptical of price targets any Wall Street analyst, economist, or strategist comes up with. The world is inherently uncertain, with a million different variables that can affect the prices of financial assets.

Let me be clear. If you are indeed bullish on Bitcoin, do not buy it hoping that it shoots up in value in 12 months. Instead, add it to your portfolio with the intention of owning it for the next decade. There's a good chance your patience will be rewarded.

Neil Patel and his clients have positions in Bitcoin. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Bitcoin. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

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Should You Buy Bitcoin While It's Below $30,000? - The Motley Fool