On Feb. 20 Bitcoin (BTC) price surprisingly dropped 8.85%, a move which caught many investors off guard as up to that moment the digital asset had recovered well from the Presidents Day weekend correction and was trading sideways in the $10,200 range. Citing data from CoinMetrics, ARK Invest crypto analyst Yassine Elmandjra tweeted that the $1,000 price drop was the fifth largest USD correction to occur on the hourly time frame since 2017.
Since the sharp downside move, traders, analysts, and crypto-Twitter have been attempting to pinpoint the source of the flash crash and a handful of theories have arisen. Some have attributed the volatility to the consecutive unplanned Binance exchange outages which halted trading on the platform and prevented many traders from being able to log into their accounts.
Others, like, Cointelegraph contributor and Bitcoin trader filbfilb speculated that a shortage of Tether (USDT) at Binance could possibly have contributed to the current market conditions.
In his Telegram-based trading channel filbfilb explained that the USDT shortage possibly shows that the majority of traders were in long positions, an observation further supported by the decreasing pace of Bitcoins momentum and the liquidation of $120 million leveraged longs at BitMex.
BitMEX XBTUSD Liquidations. Source: Skew.com
Regardless of the reason, the drop to $9,346 shook a lot of investors from their Bitcoin and altcoin positions and the current state of the market is negatively impacting investors bullish sentiment as they are choosing to wait on the sidelines for a clearer signal that a bottom has been reached.
Crypto Fear & Greed Index. Source: Alternative.me
Is the current price action a buy the dip opportunity or is Bitcoin on the verge of a significant trend change? Lets check the charts to see.
BTC USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
As shown by the daily chart, Bitcoin formed a tweezer top candlestick pattern at $10,250 after recovering from the previous weekends drop to $9,450. This should have been a signal that the likelihood of a pullback could occur but traders were probably feeling bullish after Bitcoins quick recovery from $9,450 placed the digital asset back above key support levels.
Despite the shock caused by yesterdays correction Bitcoin price still found support at the high volume node of the volume profile visible range (VPVR) at $9,300 to $9,438. While this is reassuring, some cautionary notes are low purchasing volume which highlights a lack of buyers interested in stepping into the current dip and the state of the two most frequently referenced oscillators by traders not yet registering oversold conditions.
BTC USDT 6-hour chart. Source: TradingView
On the 6-hour timeframe, the relative strength index (RSI) has yet to manage an oversold bounce and the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) line continues to plummet, pressing on -100 at the time of writing.
Traders will also notice that the MACD histogram bars continue to elongate in negative territory (below 0) and the pattern of lower highs in the 6-hour chart is unbroken.
If buyers continue to believe the current price action is not a buy the dip opportunity the price could drop below the VPVR high volume node ($9,438) and the 200-day moving average at $8,800 where there is another VPVR high volume node.
The shorter timeframe shows the price slowly making higher lows but the purchasing volume is not significant enough to hold the price above $9,600. Over the short-term, bulls need to defend the $9,500 support (black arrow on chart below) as the daily and weekly timeframe shows it to be a key level. A more significant trend change could push the price lower to $8,800 to $8,400.
If we zoom out to assess Bitcoins price action since reaching its 2019 top at $13,800 on June 26, 2018, we can see that the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement level has been a frequent area where the price has bounced after strong corrections.
BTC USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
Since June 26, 2018, the price has bounced here more than 10 times and yesterdays pullback brought the price to the 38.6% level again. Its crucial that the price stays above this level because the 38.6% Fibonacci retracement has also functioned as a strong resistance once the price dips below it.
On the flip side, assuming the price breaks out, we can also see that the last three Bitcoin rallies on October 12, 2019,February 12, 2020, and February 18, 2020, have failed to break above the 50% Fibonacci Retracement level. Thus, Bitcoin price needs to secure a few daily closes above $10,250 (50% Fibonacci retracement) before any calls for $11,000 can be seriously considered.
For the short term, Bitcoin price needs to knock out $9,630 and above this price, $9,750 is likely to function as a level of resistance. A more convincing maneuver would be to see Bitcoin price overtake the 20-MA of the Bollinger Band indicator and sustain above $9,850.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.
Excerpt from:
Bitcoin Price Fights to Hold $9.5K to Stave Off a Trend Reversal - Cointelegraph
- Chinas Bitcoin Exchanges Say Banks Will Close Their Accounts [Last Updated On: April 11th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 11th, 2014]
- How I created my own bitcoin [Last Updated On: April 11th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 11th, 2014]
- How I created my own bitcoin-like currency [Last Updated On: April 11th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 11th, 2014]
- Bitcoin players knock on Washington doors [Last Updated On: April 11th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 11th, 2014]
- How does Bitcoin work? - Bitcoin [Last Updated On: April 11th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 11th, 2014]
- Should We Do a Bitcoin Sketch? - Video [Last Updated On: April 11th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 11th, 2014]
- Bitcoin Talk Show #4 with Chris Ellis and Thomas Hunt - Video [Last Updated On: April 11th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 11th, 2014]
- Bitcoin - an Introduction - Video [Last Updated On: April 11th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 11th, 2014]
- Bitcoin ATM Unveiled on Capitol Hill - Video [Last Updated On: April 11th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 11th, 2014]
- Fla. Bitcoin Case Tests Money Laundering Limits - Video [Last Updated On: April 11th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 11th, 2014]
- Capitol Hill Bitcoin ATM...No Anonymity! April 10 2014 - Video [Last Updated On: April 11th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 11th, 2014]
- BREAKING: US Congressman Steve Stockman To Introduce First Bitcoin Bill - Video [Last Updated On: April 11th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 11th, 2014]
- 10 Things You Didn't Know About BitCoin - Video [Last Updated On: April 11th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 11th, 2014]
- All about Bitcoin - Video [Last Updated On: April 11th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 11th, 2014]
- Internet vs Bitcoin - Video [Last Updated On: April 11th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 11th, 2014]
- Bitcoin: The Future of Currency? - Video [Last Updated On: April 12th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 12th, 2014]
- Watching Bitcoin dropping to new lows - Video [Last Updated On: April 12th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 12th, 2014]
- Bitcoin ATM unveiled in Washington DC: revolutionary digital currency arrives on Capitol Hill - Video [Last Updated On: April 12th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 12th, 2014]
- Qu'est-ce que le bitcoin ? - Video [Last Updated On: April 12th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 12th, 2014]
- Decentralize Everything -- Congresswoman Velazquez supports Bitcoin -- Stallman in Vienna - Video [Last Updated On: April 12th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 12th, 2014]
- Drake Bitcoin's Here Music Video - Bitcoin T Shirt Store - Video [Last Updated On: April 12th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 12th, 2014]
- China tightens leash on bitcoin - Biz Wire - April 4,2014 - BONTV China - Video [Last Updated On: April 12th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 12th, 2014]
- What is BITCOIN? Andreas Antonopoulos & Amir Taaki explain BTC value - Video [Last Updated On: April 12th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 12th, 2014]
- Texas Bitcoin Conference - Robocoin & Coinvault ATM - Video [Last Updated On: April 12th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 12th, 2014]
- Texas Bitcoin Conference - BitShares - Video [Last Updated On: April 12th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 12th, 2014]
- Is Bitcoin the Future of Money? (with Timothy B. Lee) - Video [Last Updated On: April 12th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 12th, 2014]
- Robert Murphy at Texas Bitcoin Conference 2014 about Austrian Economics, money theory and Bitcoin - Video [Last Updated On: April 12th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 12th, 2014]
- CryptexCard - Video [Last Updated On: April 12th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 12th, 2014]
- Father of Virtual Reality on Bitcoin April 8 2014 - Video [Last Updated On: April 12th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 12th, 2014]
- California's first bitcoin ATM launches in Silicon Valley - Video [Last Updated On: April 12th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 12th, 2014]
- Bitcoin Fight Night: Kickboxing for bitcoin and Max Keiser 'defeats banksters' - Video [Last Updated On: April 12th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 12th, 2014]
- Bitcoin blunder: Satoshi Nakamoto denies all involvement with cryptocurrency [Last Updated On: April 13th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 13th, 2014]
- Bitcoin gets easier for consumers to buy, spend [Last Updated On: April 13th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 13th, 2014]
- 11.04.14 Forex, Bitcoin Romanov Capital - Video [Last Updated On: April 13th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 13th, 2014]
- USA: Capitol Hill gets its own Bitcoin ATM - Video [Last Updated On: April 13th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 13th, 2014]
- Bitcoin, a moeda virtual. - Video [Last Updated On: April 13th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 13th, 2014]
- Bitcoin creator Satoshi Nakamoto tracked down, but says story has no currency [Last Updated On: April 14th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 14th, 2014]
- Bitcoin's backers know they need to win you over [Last Updated On: April 14th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 14th, 2014]
- [Structure] Heartbleed and Bitcoin - Video [Last Updated On: April 14th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 14th, 2014]
- BitCoin mining frame - Video [Last Updated On: April 14th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 14th, 2014]
- Where Do You Think US Bitcoin Regulations Are Headed? - Video [Last Updated On: April 14th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 14th, 2014]
- Dwyer 4-11-14 Bitcoin Update - Video [Last Updated On: April 14th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 14th, 2014]
- 4/10/14 - China & BTC, Bitcoin Tax Solutions, Libra, BitInvest Coincards - Video [Last Updated On: April 14th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 14th, 2014]
- Ben Lawsky & NY Regulators on Bitcoin - Video [Last Updated On: April 14th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 14th, 2014]
- Bill to Change IRS Ruling on Bitcoin - Video [Last Updated On: April 14th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 14th, 2014]
- Bitcoin is not over! Bitcoin Indian Food Night Saturday! (adult language, parody and yelling) - Video [Last Updated On: April 14th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 14th, 2014]
- Demonstrating a Bitcoin ATM at Dig South - Video [Last Updated On: April 14th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 14th, 2014]
- 10 Things You Didn t Know About BitCoin - Video [Last Updated On: April 14th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 14th, 2014]
- How Bitcoin Works in 5 Minutes - Video [Last Updated On: April 15th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 15th, 2014]
- Bitcoin Below $400, Massive Security Breach, 4,000 Merchants, and Congress - Video [Last Updated On: April 15th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 15th, 2014]
- Reddit Co-founder Alexis Ohanian talks Bitcoin security, Mt. Gox on Joe Rogan Experience - Video [Last Updated On: April 15th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 15th, 2014]
- Cointools: Drupal & Bitcoin == $awesome - Video [Last Updated On: April 15th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 15th, 2014]
- Bitcoin ATM, Black Star Pastry, Rosebery, Sydney, Australia (Vending machine, BTM) - Video [Last Updated On: April 15th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 15th, 2014]
- My Bitcoin Call to Alex Jones Infowars Digital Paper Wallets Storage - Video [Last Updated On: April 15th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 15th, 2014]
- The Bitcoin Group #25 (Live) -- Bitcoin Sports -- Gox Buyout? -- Sidechains -- Dogecoin Merged? - Video [Last Updated On: April 15th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 15th, 2014]
- 4/11/14 - China, Mt. Gox buyout, Gyft Cloud, BIT, new bitcoin symbol - Video [Last Updated On: April 15th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 15th, 2014]
- 9 Year Old Explains Bitcoin - Video [Last Updated On: April 15th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 15th, 2014]
- CITP Bitcoin Panel 2 Altcoins - Video [Last Updated On: April 15th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 15th, 2014]
- Why US Regulators Should Go Easy on Bitcoin - Video [Last Updated On: April 15th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 15th, 2014]
- In Crypto We Trust Hackathon Pitches - Bitcoin Expo 2014 - Video [Last Updated On: April 15th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 15th, 2014]
- CITP Bitcoin - Panel 1: Economics and Public Policy - Video [Last Updated On: April 15th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 15th, 2014]
- David Chen of Lightspeed Ventures visits Plug and Play Bitcoin - Video [Last Updated On: April 15th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 15th, 2014]
- Video: Roundup of This Week's Bitcoin News 11th April 2014 - Video [Last Updated On: April 15th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 15th, 2014]
- Peace and Bitcoin Remastered - Video [Last Updated On: April 15th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 15th, 2014]
- [Bitcoin] Cannot be divorced from pre-existing political theory - Video [Last Updated On: April 15th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 15th, 2014]
- Bitcoin Trade 114 - Video [Last Updated On: April 15th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 15th, 2014]
- Wall Street's Fair Value of Bitcoin - Inside Bitcoins NYC 2014 - Video [Last Updated On: April 15th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 15th, 2014]
- Elliotte Wave Technical Analysis Applied to Bitcoin - Video [Last Updated On: April 17th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 17th, 2014]
- Bitcoin Wisdom Depth Chart - Video [Last Updated On: April 17th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 17th, 2014]
- Live - Paris Bitcoin Startup #2 @TheFamily - Mercredi 16/04/2014 ds 19h - Video [Last Updated On: April 17th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 17th, 2014]
- Not Tax Day, Bitcoin Day! - Video [Last Updated On: April 17th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 17th, 2014]
- Preview: The Bitcoin Uprising - Video [Last Updated On: April 17th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 17th, 2014]
- WCN Live: iNacho -- an interview with Jerica Truax -- win a bitcoin by rating Nachos! 🙂 - Video [Last Updated On: April 17th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 17th, 2014]
- Can You Use Bitcoin for a Tax Haven? - Video [Last Updated On: April 17th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 17th, 2014]
- What Is Proof Of Stake In Nextcoin (NXT) vs. Proof Of Work In Bitcoin (BTC) - By Tai Zen - Video [Last Updated On: April 17th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 17th, 2014]
- Bitcoin, little failures and huge successes - Video [Last Updated On: April 17th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 17th, 2014]
- Dutch Ethereum & Bitcoin Meetup: Coin Unlimited over Bitcoin en altcoins - Edwin van den Ouden - Video [Last Updated On: April 17th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 17th, 2014]
- Dutch Ethereum & Bitcoin Meetup: Tor (The Onion Router) Joachim de Koning - Video [Last Updated On: April 17th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 17th, 2014]
- Dutch Ethereum & Bitcoin Meetup: First Steps in Ethereum - Joachim de Koning (part one) - Video [Last Updated On: April 17th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 17th, 2014]
- Dutch Ethereum & Bitcoin Meetup: First Steps in Ethereum Joachim de Koning (part two) - Video [Last Updated On: April 17th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 17th, 2014]