The dust has settled in the Middle East for now as the political posturing takes a back seat. Bitcoin prices have also settled a little from their roller-coaster ride over the past fortnight, but how closely related were the two events?
Bitcoin has spent the past day or so consolidating at the $8,600 level after a minor pullback on Sunday. Its epic 32% pump this month has been largely attributed to geopolitical tension in the Middle East as the safe haven narrative intensified.
On-chain analysis enables researchers to delve deeper into what has actually happened for the first three weeks of 2020.
The CryptoQuant Team has released a research paper taking a deep dive into the analysis of bitcoin markets and trader behavior during recent events.
Looking at volume alone cannot determine whether people were purely day trading the asset more or seeking to hold it as a store of value during times of geopolitical adversity. Exchange outflows are used to ascertain whether people are intending to hodl for more than just a short period of time.
High exchange outflows typically coincide with price bottoms as supply dries up. Looking at this metric during the Iran crisis reveals whether BTC was viewed as a safe haven and how quickly investors reacted.
The team looked at the whole picture first which began on January 2nd, reached a peak the 7th, and ended with Trumps announcement the following day. Outflows prior to this were at a two month low of around 12k with bitcoin priced just over $7k at the time.
Following the US strike exchange outflow climbed to 37k on January 3rd, dropped back to 18k on the 5th, and then surged again to peak at 49k on the 8th after Irans retaliatory strike. Bitcoin outflows increased by four times over the course of the crisis.
Price movements were also highly correlated with movements of traditional safe have assets such as gold and oil. The research continued to break down exchange outflows and price movement for individual events during the weeklong encounter.
The last large outflow was when US President Trump announced the de-escalation of conflict on January 8. Subsequent measurements were all much smaller with no outflow over 800.
The report concludes that there was a clear change in on-chain behavior during the crisis but cannot determine whether it was pure speculation or a greater desire to hodl.
As tensions rose, we see peoples desire to hold the asset increased. But as soon as the conflict was resolved, this demand dropped, leading to a downturn in price.
The researchers added that a one-time event cannot be conclusive, but it does provide an interesting window into what could be a shifting perception of Bitcoin.
Is bitcoin really a go-to asset in times of adversity? Add your comments below.
Image via Shutterstock
View original post here:
How Bitcoin's On-chain Activity and the Iran Crisis Correlate? - Bitcoinist
- Bitcoin Bulls Back in the Driving Seat as Price Crosses $10K - CoinDesk - CoinDesk - February 19th, 2020
- The U.S. Is Very Worried About BitcoinAnd Its Finally Doing Something About It - Forbes - February 19th, 2020
- Bitcoin Ready to Explode, According to This Key Metric - CCN.com - February 19th, 2020
- 3 Reasons Why Running a Bitcoin Node Is Easier Than You Think - Bitcoinist - February 19th, 2020
- Bitcoin to See a Massive Trend-Defining Movement Because of This Simple Pattern - newsBTC - February 19th, 2020
- Bitcoin Price Zooms Past $10,200 But Are We Really Done With The Downside? - Coingape - February 19th, 2020
- 3 Things You Need To Be A Successful Bitcoin HODLer - Bitcoinist - February 19th, 2020
- Bitcoin [BTC] Forms Key Bullish Pattern That Doubled BTCs Value; Possible Run To $20K? - Coingape - February 19th, 2020
- Real Bitcoin volume is exploding as seen in Bakkt, fueling the crypto rally - CryptoSlate - February 19th, 2020
- Bitcoin back to $10K Proves the Bulls Still in Command - FXStreet - February 19th, 2020
- Heres Why Bitcoin Bulls Need To Be Very Careful Here: A Big Pullback Is Still Possible - newsBTC - February 19th, 2020
- How Bitcoin Is Used by Activists and Refugees to Promote Human Rights - CoinDesk - February 19th, 2020
- Here's how bitcoin gets to $12,000 - CNBC - February 19th, 2020
- Tron CEO Failed to Convince Warren Buffet on the Merits of Bitcoin - newsBTC - February 19th, 2020
- Jimmy Nguyen discusses future of sports with Bitcoin SV - CoinGeek - February 19th, 2020
- How Bitcoin is coming to Ethereum, again - Decrypt - February 19th, 2020
- How Bitcoin Optech Is Connecting the Open-Source and Corporate Worlds - Bitcoin Magazine - February 19th, 2020
- Bitcoin Price Has Set $8.2K Floor, $100K Coming Before 2022 Analyst - Cointelegraph - February 11th, 2020
- Bitcoin Is Roaring Toward $10,000 But Its Being Wrecked By These Other Cryptos - Forbes - February 11th, 2020
- Bitcoin Takes a Dive After the Longest Daily Winning Run Since September - Coindesk - February 11th, 2020
- The US government lost $1.7 billion by selling Bitcoin too early - The Next Web - February 11th, 2020
- A major crypto scams Bitcoin is moving and if history repeats, it may start a correction - CryptoSlate - February 11th, 2020
- Bitcoin Price Hits $10,000 for the First Time in 2020 Up 40% YTD - Cointelegraph - February 11th, 2020
- Where to Buy the Dip in Bitcoin [BTC] below $10k? Price Analysts Suggest - Coingape - February 11th, 2020
- Why Trump Should Unveil A U.S. Answer To Bitcoin To Rival Chinas Digital Yuan - Forbes - February 11th, 2020
- Bitcoin Price Analysis: BTC Drops Below $10,000, But If It Holds Here New 2020 Highs Might Come Very Soon - CryptoPotato - February 11th, 2020
- Binance Coin Rises on the Day Bitcoin Fails to Sustain above $10K - newsBTC - February 11th, 2020
- Bitcoin (BTC) and Crypto Paranoia: The Neurosis of Private Key Safekeeping And Why We Need a New Paradigm - The Daily Hodl - February 11th, 2020
- Bitcoin hit three big milestones this week - Decrypt - February 11th, 2020
- Crypto Tidbits: Bitcoin Nears $10,000, Tron CEOs Warren Buffett Rendezvous, Ethereum DeFi Hits $1B - newsBTC - February 11th, 2020
- Bitcoin Taxation Support Growing Industry Here are 5 Useful Cryptocurrency Tax Calculators - Bitcoin News - February 11th, 2020
- Bitmain, Ebang, Canaan, and MicroBT to Cement Control over Bitcoin Mining Market in... - Coinspeaker - February 11th, 2020
- Bitcoin and Altcoins Continue Post-Rally Correction - Cryptonews - February 11th, 2020
- Exchange Deposits in Bitcoin Slide to Lowest Level in 3 Years - Coindesk - February 8th, 2020
- Bitcoins Crucial Weekly Close Will Determine Whether It Enters a Real Bull Market - newsBTC - February 8th, 2020
- Bitcoin Has Erased Over 45% of 2019 Sell-Off in Just 7 Weeks - CoinDesk - February 8th, 2020
- Stakes For Bitcoin Are Highest Since The 2017 Bubble - Forbes - February 8th, 2020
- Is There Any Truth to the Tesla-Bitcoin Parallels? - CCN.com - February 8th, 2020
- Bitcoin SV (BSV) Jumps 17% Out of Nowhere - newsBTC - February 8th, 2020
- Crypto Researcher Hasu Flags Attack That Could Bring 'Purge'-Style Mayhem to Bitcoin - Coindesk - February 8th, 2020
- Bitcoin logs best January performance in 7 years as value surges by nearly $40 billion - CNBC - February 8th, 2020
- Bitcoin Explodes as Rare Bull Signal Flashes For the First Time in 10 Months - newsBTC - February 8th, 2020
- How the Long Tail of the Coronavirus Might Slow Bitcoin's Hash Power Growth - Coindesk - February 8th, 2020
- Meet the KFC Worker Who Ran a Bitcoin Drug Empire From His Attic - Bitcoinist - February 8th, 2020
- 'Stale' Block Reminds the Importance of Bitcoin Confirmations - Cryptonews - February 8th, 2020
- Bitfinex Bitcoin whale hints recent BTC rally to $9,850 is manipulated and unsustainable - CryptoSlate - February 8th, 2020
- Will Genesis upgrade signal the beginning of the Bitcoin financial powerhouse? - ZDNet - February 8th, 2020
- Dutch university pays $220K in Bitcoin to alleged Russian hackers - The Next Web - February 8th, 2020
- Lightning Labs Raises $10M Series A to Be the 'Visa' of Bitcoin - CoinDesk - February 8th, 2020
- Warren Buffett Changes His Take on Bitcoin (BTC) Is This Real? - U.Today - February 8th, 2020
- Bitcoin Starts Convincing Rally To $10K After Short Term Correction: Here Are Key Hurdles - newsBTC - February 8th, 2020
- US Marshals Will Auction $40M in Bitcoin This Month - Coindesk - February 8th, 2020
- Buy the Pump, Sell the Dump Does Momentum Investing Work in Bitcoin? - Cointelegraph - January 29th, 2020
- Bitcoin Rallies to Near $9150 as Stocks Drop Over Coronavirus Fears - Coindesk - January 29th, 2020
- 3 Reasons Why Bitcoin Price Broke Above $9K Today - Bitcoinist - January 29th, 2020
- Bitcoins 15% Weekly Gain Could Send Ethereum Flying: Heres Why - newsBTC - January 29th, 2020
- Bitcoin Hits $9,400 In Vertical Rally, But Its At Risk of A Violent Pullback For This Key Reason - newsBTC - January 29th, 2020
- A Massive 500 Bitcoin Sell Order Hits Binance For First Time in a While, Heres What It Means - newsBTC - January 29th, 2020
- Bitcoin Price Breaks over $9,000 but Coronavirus Isn't the Only Influencing... - Coinspeaker - January 29th, 2020
- Bitcoin Price Rejected Back Below $9000, Is a Retest Of Lows Up Next? - newsBTC - January 29th, 2020
- How profitable will Bitcoin be in 2020? - Coin Rivet - January 29th, 2020
- Bitcoin's next halving in May could send the currency to new all-time high - TechSpot - January 29th, 2020
- The Invisible Global Currency Thats 24 Times Bigger Than Bitcoin - Forbes - January 29th, 2020
- Hype Over Bitcoin (BTC) Halving Accelerating, Reports Cryptocurrency Analysis Firm Arcane Research - The Daily Hodl - January 29th, 2020
- Bitcoin (BTC) Predicted by Henry Ford 100 Years Ago - U.Today - January 29th, 2020
- Coronavirus Infects Gold and Bitcoin: Both Assets Poised for Risk-Off Break Outs - CCN.com - January 29th, 2020
- Bitcoin in Midst of Powerful Breakout: How Far Will Prices Go Past $10,000? - newsBTC - January 29th, 2020
- Bitcoin Risk-Return a Different Beast Compared to Amazon: Analyst - Cointelegraph - January 29th, 2020
- Bitcoin.com withdraws from Bitcoin Cash proposal to divert part of block rewards to dev fund - Yahoo Finance - January 29th, 2020
- BTC HODL Target Found? Almost 50% Say They Will Sell If Bitcoin Price Reaches $100,000 - CryptoPotato - January 29th, 2020
- Bitcoin Price-33 Expected to Make 'Extra Bullish' Move. CZ Says It's Time to Unfollow Bears - U.Today - January 29th, 2020
- Top 3 Price Prediction Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP: Bitcoin moving on the razor edge - FXStreet - January 29th, 2020
- No, Bitcoin Gains Are Not Down To Fears Of Coronavirus Outbreak - newsBTC - January 29th, 2020
- Crypto Killed the Tax Man: Bitcoin Cash Escapes Hash War Over Mining Tax Grenade - CCN.com - January 29th, 2020
- $9,500 is Imminent For Bitcoin Despite 5% Intraday Gain: Heres Why - newsBTC - January 29th, 2020
- Bitcoin Moves on Path to Money But Unit of Account a Long Way Off - Bitcoinist - January 29th, 2020
- Bitcoin Breaks 7-Month Downtrend But Must Clear These Hurdles to $10K - Cointelegraph - January 27th, 2020
- Bitcoin Price Indicator That Called 2019 Bull Run Flashes Green Again - Cointelegraph - January 27th, 2020
- Latest Bitcoin price and analysis (BTC to USD) - Coin Rivet - January 27th, 2020
- Different Type of Shakeout Trader Says Bitcoin Unlikely to Hit $6K - Cointelegraph - January 27th, 2020