On Feb. 20 Bitcoin (BTC) price surprisingly dropped 8.85%, a move which caught many investors off guard as up to that moment the digital asset had recovered well from the Presidents Day weekend correction and was trading sideways in the $10,200 range. Citing data from CoinMetrics, ARK Invest crypto analyst Yassine Elmandjra tweeted that the $1,000 price drop was the fifth largest USD correction to occur on the hourly time frame since 2017.

Since the sharp downside move, traders, analysts, and crypto-Twitter have been attempting to pinpoint the source of the flash crash and a handful of theories have arisen. Some have attributed the volatility to the consecutive unplanned Binance exchange outages which halted trading on the platform and prevented many traders from being able to log into their accounts.

Others, like, Cointelegraph contributor and Bitcoin trader filbfilb speculated that a shortage of Tether (USDT) at Binance could possibly have contributed to the current market conditions.

In his Telegram-based trading channel filbfilb explained that the USDT shortage possibly shows that the majority of traders were in long positions, an observation further supported by the decreasing pace of Bitcoins momentum and the liquidation of $120 million leveraged longs at BitMex.

BitMEX XBTUSD Liquidations. Source: Skew.com

Regardless of the reason, the drop to $9,346 shook a lot of investors from their Bitcoin and altcoin positions and the current state of the market is negatively impacting investors bullish sentiment as they are choosing to wait on the sidelines for a clearer signal that a bottom has been reached.

Crypto Fear & Greed Index. Source: Alternative.me

Is the current price action a buy the dip opportunity or is Bitcoin on the verge of a significant trend change? Lets check the charts to see.

BTC USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

As shown by the daily chart, Bitcoin formed a tweezer top candlestick pattern at $10,250 after recovering from the previous weekends drop to $9,450. This should have been a signal that the likelihood of a pullback could occur but traders were probably feeling bullish after Bitcoins quick recovery from $9,450 placed the digital asset back above key support levels.

Despite the shock caused by yesterdays correction Bitcoin price still found support at the high volume node of the volume profile visible range (VPVR) at $9,300 to $9,438. While this is reassuring, some cautionary notes are low purchasing volume which highlights a lack of buyers interested in stepping into the current dip and the state of the two most frequently referenced oscillators by traders not yet registering oversold conditions.

BTC USDT 6-hour chart. Source: TradingView

On the 6-hour timeframe, the relative strength index (RSI) has yet to manage an oversold bounce and the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) line continues to plummet, pressing on -100 at the time of writing.

Traders will also notice that the MACD histogram bars continue to elongate in negative territory (below 0) and the pattern of lower highs in the 6-hour chart is unbroken.

If buyers continue to believe the current price action is not a buy the dip opportunity the price could drop below the VPVR high volume node ($9,438) and the 200-day moving average at $8,800 where there is another VPVR high volume node.

The shorter timeframe shows the price slowly making higher lows but the purchasing volume is not significant enough to hold the price above $9,600. Over the short-term, bulls need to defend the $9,500 support (black arrow on chart below) as the daily and weekly timeframe shows it to be a key level. A more significant trend change could push the price lower to $8,800 to $8,400.

If we zoom out to assess Bitcoins price action since reaching its 2019 top at $13,800 on June 26, 2018, we can see that the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement level has been a frequent area where the price has bounced after strong corrections.

BTC USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

Since June 26, 2018, the price has bounced here more than 10 times and yesterdays pullback brought the price to the 38.6% level again. Its crucial that the price stays above this level because the 38.6% Fibonacci retracement has also functioned as a strong resistance once the price dips below it.

On the flip side, assuming the price breaks out, we can also see that the last three Bitcoin rallies on October 12, 2019,February 12, 2020, and February 18, 2020, have failed to break above the 50% Fibonacci Retracement level. Thus, Bitcoin price needs to secure a few daily closes above $10,250 (50% Fibonacci retracement) before any calls for $11,000 can be seriously considered.

For the short term, Bitcoin price needs to knock out $9,630 and above this price, $9,750 is likely to function as a level of resistance. A more convincing maneuver would be to see Bitcoin price overtake the 20-MA of the Bollinger Band indicator and sustain above $9,850.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Excerpt from:
Bitcoin Price Fights to Hold $9.5K to Stave Off a Trend Reversal - Cointelegraph

Bitcoin Gold (BTG)s price is being manipulated by a whale controlling close to half of the circulating supply. These are the findings of an analysis conducted by an independent trader and analyst, who preferred to remain anonymous.

He published his findings in a blog post, where he explained why he believes a single group of people accumulated their way into a huge Bitcoin Gold position, and are now using that supply to control the market.

The events started in August 2018, when Bitfinex margin long positions began its sharp ascent to include almost two million BTG. The exchange makes its margin data publicly available, which can help gauge the general trader sentiment in a particular coin for example by comparing the ratio of short and long positions.

BTG/USD Longs on Bitfinex. Source: TradingView.

In Bitcoin Golds case, the strong increase in margin positions was accompanied by lackluster price action. While the coin generally followed the broader crypto market, the price eventually spiraled downward.

BTG/USD on Bitfinex. Source: TradingView.

The analyst estimated that the 1.9 million BTG held at some point in Bitfinex represents between 38% and 48% of its total circulating supply.

Bitcoin Gold was born in 2017 after a network fork from Bitcoin (BTC), thus maintaining its original history up until that point. This means that Bitcoin Gold contains at least as many inactive coins as its parent, including Satoshis cache.

He further elaborated how he reached that figure:

Over 11 million Bitcoins (BTC) havent moved in the last year. Considering big wallets unwillingness to claim their coins due to fear of private key leak for a minimal return, it can be argued that a number even larger than 11 million BTGs are inactive or lost forever.

He then estimated a figure of 4 to 5 million active BTG. When asked by Cointelegraph why he is so certain that this is the work of one whale, he explained:

The accumulation was very consistent and systematic over the course of almost a year, it would be almost impossible for it to be a coincidence that multiple entities were using the exact same system to accumulate.

The analyst also conducted a manual analysis of the average entry price for the whale. By comparing the number of coins bought each day with their price, he arrived at a figure of $22.86 as the break-even price.

Following the extensive accumulation, the whale began using its position to influence markets. In early January, Bitcoin Golds price rose in consecutive moves by up to 200%, from $5 to $15. Margin positions dropped precipitously just as the upward move was complete.

BTG/USD Longs with price superimposed. Source: TradingView.

No major announcements were posted at the time on Bitcoin Golds Twitter account, which highlights the potential for fabricated price action. The analyst further noticed that Bitfinexs wallets were subsequently drained of a significant chunk of BTG.

He conducted a test on Binance, which showed that it was not the destination wallet. A volume comparison points to Korean exchange Bithumb as the likely receiver of these funds. The analyst argues that this is part of the whales distribution strategy, which would have external retail traders join in a fabricated pump to let the whale offload the coins.

Comparison of exchange activity. Source: Onlyforesight.com and TradingView.

The price was, however, held back from rising due to a powerful sell wall on Bitfinex, around $15. The increased activity on Bithumb led the analyst to conclude that the whale could be Korean, as the exchange requires a national Social Security Number to create an account.

The sudden decrease in Bitfinex margin could also be explained by the whale divesting from BTG. The analyst argues that the trading group simply claimed its position:

I think the whale was planning on selling on Bitfinex originally, and then realized there wasn't enough liquidity to exit there, so now they're forced to send their coins to another exchange (by first 'claiming' their margin position, and then withdrawing).

Claiming is the act of settling a margin position by compensating the amount loaned in full.

These market manipulation tactics have since been observed on Binance. As the analyst explained:

Bitfinex acts as a suppression mechanism; every time the price tries to increase on Binance, Bitfinex holds it back. People (and bots) see the difference, and try to pounce on the arbitrage opportunity. However, by the time people transfer their BTGs from Bitfinex to Binance, the gap has already closed and the prices equalize.

This can be clearly seen in Feb. 10 trading. As shown in the picture below, candles on Bitfinex have a clean cut around $13.8, while the price on Binance clearly moved past the barrier.

BTG/USD on Bitfinex and Binance (orange line), H1 candles on Feb. 10. Source: TradingView.

Given the scale and amount of time invested into BTG accumulation, the analyst argued that the traders will seek a substantial profit:

It is expected that the price of BTG will multiply in value from the current value of ~$12 (as of this post) and increase a substantial amount from the $22.86 projected breakeven price.

He conjectured that a potential target could be $100, which could result in a maximum profit of $150 million. The current attempts at price suppression are necessary to not let interest burn out too quickly, as the analyst explained:

If the price rises too fast, its destined to downtrend for an extended period as people gradually take profits and there is no-one to buy up the increasing supply hitting the market.

There are currently no signs that point to the Bitcoin Gold team having anything to do with this market manipulation. The developers did not respond to Cointelegraphs request for comment.

Read more:
Bitcoin Gold Is Held Captive by Whale With Almost Half the Supply - Cointelegraph

Following the huge price dump last Wednesday, we saw Bitcoin trading in the tight range between $9550 and $9750 until a few hours ago, where the primary cryptocurrency had decided to fire some engines towards a critical resistance level.

As of writing these lines, Bitcoin is testing the $9900 $10,000 resistance. As mentioned in our previous analysis, the $9900 horizontal resistance is also the Golden Fib retracement level (61.8%, lies at $9922). As can be seen on the following daily chart, this resistance is also a retest of the mid-term ascending trend-line (marked yellow).

While Bitcoin is in the middle of another weekend, we need to keep in mind a possible CME Futures gap waiting at $9830. Those gaps usually tend to get filled very quickly.

Total Market Cap: $286 billion

Bitcoin Market Cap: $179.6 billion

BTC Dominance Index: 62.7%

*Data by CoinGecko

Support/Resistance levels: As mentioned above, the first level of resistance is the Golden Fib level (61.8%) at $9922, before the $10,000 benchmark. Higher above lies the past weeks high of $10,200 $10,300, followed by $10,500 where lies the current 2020 high.

From below, the first significant level of support lies at $9750. Further below lies $9550, followed by $9400, before the weekly low of Wednesday, which lies at $9300.

The RSI Indicator: After a huge drop to the 50 RSI levels, the indicator found the needed support, and since then showing bullishness.

On the 4-hour chart (the lower time-frame), we can see a little bit of bullish price divergence starting to develop, which could be fuel for the next move up.

In addition, the Stochastic RSI oscillator had made a crossover in the oversold territory, and now about to enter the neutral zone, this could be another short-term bullish sign.

Trading volume: Since Wednesday, we can see that the daily volume candles are declining. Yesterday had carried a minor amount of volume. This might be a sign that the next Bitcoin move is coming up. As a reminder, during weekends, the trading volume tends to be lower.

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Disclaimer: Information found on CryptoPotato is those of writers quoted. It does not represent the opinions of CryptoPotato on whether to buy, sell, or hold any investments. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use provided information at your own risk. See Disclaimer for more information.

Cryptocurrency chartsby TradingView.

See the rest here:
Bitcoin Price Analysis: Following Decent $300 Surge Is Bitcoin Ready To Conquer $10,000 Again, Or Just A Temp Correction? - CryptoPotato

Bitcoin, cryptocurrencies, blockchain, decentralization, China's digital yuan, Facebook's librathe U.S. is understandably worried about the dominance of the almighty dollar.

Last year, U.S. president Donald Trump slammed bitcoin as based on "thin air," while his Treasury secretary Steven Mnuchin branded bitcoin a "national security threat."

Now, the U.S. has admitted bitcoin and cryptocurrency could undermine the dollar's status as the worlds reserve currencyand it wants to find out exactly how bad for the country, its economy, and security that could be.

The rise of bitcoin and cryptocurrencies has caused some to fear the dominance of the U.S. dollar ... [+] might be under threat.

"Many cryptocurrency enthusiasts predict that either a global cryptocurrency or a national digital currency could undermine the U.S. dollar," the U.S. Office of the Director of National Intelligence wrote in a job listing earlier this month, calling for two researchers to evaluate the impact of the U.S. dollar losing its status as the world reserve currency.

"If either of these scenarios or others come to pass, the U.S. would lose both its status in the world and its global authorities."

The two roles, looking for a postdoc Ph.D. graduate and a U.S. university or government laboratory employee research assistant, are with the U.S. Intelligence Community Postdoctoral Research Fellowship Program through the Department of Energys Oak Ridge Institute for Science and Technology.

Back in 2018, the Department of Energys Oak Ridge Institute for Science and Technology conducted research that found that the creation of new bitcoin, along with smaller cryptocurrencies ethereum, litecoin and monero, used more energy than mineral mining to produce the same market value.

The Department of Energys Oak Ridge Institute for Science and Technology did not respond to a request for comment.

"There are many advantages for U.S. national security to have the U.S. dollar as the world reserve currency," the job post, which has a deadline of the February 28, read, pointing to the combat of financial crimes, the prevention of terrorism and the development of weapons of mass destruction, the ability of the U.S. to sanction other countries, cause financial instability in global markets.

"The U.S. maintains international dominance in no small part due to its financial power and authorities."

Meanwhile, calls for the U.S. to begin development of a so-called digital dollar have been growing louder over recent months.

Christopher Giancarlo, former chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, recently set up the Digital Dollar Foundation to work on the design and potential framework of a digital dollar.

The bitcoin price,which has failed to return to its all-time highs set in late 2017 despite it climbing around 50% since the beginning of the year, was given a substantial boost in the first half of last year by Facebook's plans for a bitcoin-like rival.

The bitcoin price has soared in recent years, making bitcoin easily the last decade's best ... [+] investment.

Many have long expected governments to eventually try to undermine bitcoin's network to halt its adoptionthough bitcoin's decentralized nature makes it remarkably resilient.

"We can win a major battle [with governments] in the arms race and gain a new territory of freedom for several years," bitcoin's mysterious creator Satoshi Nakamoto wrote in 2008. "Governments are good at cutting off the heads of a centrally controlled networks like Napster, but pure [peer-to-peer] networks like Gnutella and Tor seem to be holding their own."

Bitcoin now stands with these networks in resistance to government control.

Originally posted here:
The U.S. Is Very Worried About BitcoinAnd Its Finally Doing Something About It - Forbes

Following yesterday selloff that sent Bitcoin down to lows of $9,500, the cryptocurrencys buyers have been able to absorb the intense selling pressure and push BTC higher, with it finding some decent stability within the upper-$9,000 region.

In the near-term, BTC does appear to be entering another fresh uptrend, as it is currently in the process of retesting the $10,000 region.

It is important to note that the benchmark cryptocurrency has also been trading within a descending channel, with its ultimate reaction to this pattern likely setting the tone for how it will trend in the weeks and months ahead.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading up 3% at its current price of $9,950, which marks a notable upwards movement from the consolidation phase it had been caught within around $9,600.

BTCs recent break below $10,000 had led many analysts to believe that the cryptos bullish market structure was on the cusp of being invalidated, but its signs of bullishness in the time since this drop occured seems to have invalidated this bearish sentiment.

Whether or not the crypto continues climbing higher or starts seeing intense bearishness could depend on how a descending channel it is currently caught within resolves.

Teddy, a popular cryptocurrency analyst and trader, spoke about this in a recent tweet, explaining that a bullish breakout could validate it as a bull flag, whereas a break below could spark a bout of capitulation.

BTC: Crucial moment right now, as a bounce or break below this level will define where the trend will go in the mid-term. 1. Is this a bull flag? break small down channel and continue uptrend? 2. Break below, and build greater down channel?

While looking at the aforementioned pattern, it is important to note that this isnt the first time that that Bitcoin has found itself caught within a similar descending channel, with the same pattern previously resulting in notable uptrends.

BTC: Price did indeed repeat pattern: 1. Rising wedge 2. Strong rejection from resistance 3. Break support 4. Make everyone freakout 5. Retest previous resistance as support (as we speak)and hopefully 5. Bounce to Pluto, he explained.

If this pattern does resolve in a sustained bull-favoring movement, it is highly probable that it will once again fly past $10,000 and potentially set fresh year-to-date highs.

Read more from the original source:
Bitcoin to See a Massive Trend-Defining Movement Because of This Simple Pattern - newsBTC