Bitcoin has been trading between $1114-887 this week, according to the BLX, in extremely volatile market conditions with intense bearish momentum. The Network Hashrate gained 3.24% on March 3rd, and has increased 42.48% year to date.

The most important fundamental news this week has been the back and forth exchange between the Bitcoin Unlimited (BU) and Bitcoin Core (BC) factions. BU miner signalling continues to gain ground, up 10% this week. Nodes however, remain heavily in BCs favor.

Meanwhile, the previous quarterly futures contract from OKCoin closes this week. Below is a chart showing the quarterly contract open dates (orange), the previous quarterly moving to biweekly (blue), and the previous quarterly contract closing (yellow).

Volatility during these three weeks has previously signaled a bullish exhaustion, and a bearish upcoming quarter. Stability has signaled accumulation, and the bottom of bullish continuation. The spot price has been extremely volatile in this time period, which indicates a bearish upcoming quarter.

At the same time, the People's Bank of China (PBoC) continues to apply stricter Know Your Customer and Anti Money Laundering requirements. Traders using chinese exchanges are now required to register for accounts in person, or withdraw their current balances. Its unlikely that domestic Chinese exchange volume will return to previous levels anytime soon, and LocalBitcoin volume will continue at historic levels.

Japan therefore continues to be the market leader in volume, with 50% of total bitcoin volume traded in the past 24 hours. Japan recently became very accepting of Bitcoin as a currency, recognizing it as legal tender.

Due to the enormous selling pressure over the last week, the bull trend beginning in 2015 is currently being threatened. Lets gather some evidence on high time frames to assess the safety and validity of the longstanding bull trend.

For the first time in the entire trend, the monthly candle is a risk for a bearish engulfing candle with a few days left to close.

There is also the possibility of a Cup and Handle, a bullish continuation chart pattern, forming. However, there are a few caveats and conditions.

First, Cup and Handle patterns in traditional markets typically have an age expiration, and this formation is far past that expiration. Second, the ideal volume profile is one with a descending nature, which is definitely not the case here (not shown). Third, the Cup and Handle remains valid as long as the handle low closes above the 0.50 fibonacci retracement level. The smaller the pullback, to say the 0.618 fibonacci retracement level, the higher the probability of bullish continuation. Fourth, the measured target for continuation is taken from the cups horizontal resistance to the low and projected upward, again from the horizontal resistance. This yields a target of ~$2,100 with a 1.618 fibonacci extension of $1,789. It should be noted that upon breaking the horizontal resistance at ~$1,200, there is typically a retest of the horizontal as support. Overall, this pattern has many months yet to complete, but has begun to form and is worth watching.

On the weekly time frame, a powerful trend indicating system is Heikin-Ashi (HA) candles, which use open and close data from the previous period, and open and close data from the current period.

An open and a close above the previous period suggests strong momentum of the given trend. An open and a close within the bounds of the previous period suggests a slowing of trend. A color flip from green to red or red to green indicates the possibility of the beginning of a new trend and the end of the previous trend.

Depending on the exits and stops, the second consecutive green weekly candle after a red candle has been an excellent entry this entire trend. A bullish continuation is likely should two consecutive green weekly HA candles occur.

On the daily time frame, two indicators provide further details after a large drop: Ichimoku Cloud and Pitchfork.

Ichimoku Cloud uses moving averages and dynamic support and resistance to make projections of key zones, as well as capturing 80% of any given trend. As long as the price remains above the cloud, sentiment remains bullish. Price in the cloud indicates a neutral trend, and below the cloud indicates a bearish trend.

When the Tenkan (T) is over the Kijun (K) sentiment is bullish. K over T would indicate bearish sentiment. When the Lagging Span (LS) is above the cloud and above the price sentiment is bullish, below the cloud and price would indicate bearish sentiment. The best entry signals for the cloud occur when trend is obvious, but 1 or 2 of the signals have yet to become confluent with a higher timeframe trend.

Since the trend began in late 2015, price has only closed below the cloud once, in early August. This was due to selling pressure created when the Bitfinex hack became public knowledge. Within 35 days the trend corrected, and returned above the cloud. After this most recent 30% selloff, price was again at risk pf closing below the cloud, a bearish trend indicator.

Yesterdays candle closed as a dragonfly, which typically indicates that bearish momentum has been exhausted. Price also remains in the cloud which, is classified as a neutral trend indication. The TK lines are touching and uncrossed, a long exit signal if you were still long from the previous bullish TK cross on February 7th. As a whole, the indicator is signalling a trend reset, an opportune time for profit taking.

A bullish re-entry signal would include price above cloud, bullish TK cross, and LS above price and cloud. All of these conditions will probably take a month or more to complete. Including the OKCoin quarterly contract theory, it may take another three months of price stability before bullish momentum continues.

With the Pitchfork indicator, shown below on a Bitstamp, each diagonal of the Pitchfork can be thought of as a PRZ or support/resistance line. The upper blue diagonal zone being most overbought or the top bounds of the trend and lower blue diagonal zone being most oversold or the bottom bounds of the trend.

Price briefly closed in the lower bounds of the Pitchfork and is currently retracing closer to mean. The red median line remains the high probability target of the immediate move over the next few weeks.

When diagnosing the health of a trend, the 50 day and 200 day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the daily time frame is very valuable. Much like the Bitfinex hack and subsequent trend reset in August, price bounced from the 200EMA. Again, this suggests trend continuation over trend reversal.

Adding an oscillator to the mix, such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI), determines market momentum. Divergences occur when price action does not match momentum.

A bearish divergence is created when price makes a higher high but RSI does not. This suggests weakening of bullish momentum. A bullish divergence is created when price makes a lower low and RSI makes a higher low. This suggests weakening of bearish momentum.

Divergences suggest trend reversal, however, divergences can continue growing until the reversal becomes obvious and should be thought of as a lagging indicator.

There are hidden divergences, which require further explanation. A hidden bullish divergence is created when price makes a higher low and RSI makes a lower low. This indicates, despite an increase in bearish momentum, bearish pressure is being exhausted.

A hidden bearish divergence is created when price makes a lower high and RSI makes a higher high. This indicates, despite bullish momentum, bullish pressure is being exhausted. Over the course of this trend, hidden bull divergences on the daily time frame have been a strong indication of bullish continuation.

The current hidden bullish divergence holding would indicate strong bullish continuation from this point forward.

Lasty, on the four hour time frame, there is currently a completed and active bullish butterfly harmonic pattern. Harmonic patterns typically have a target zone of the 0.50-0.618 fibonacci retracement zone. A secondary target of the diagonal resistance from the previous double top is also a viable target.

BU hard fork fear, uncertainty, and doubt remains ever-present, until, if, or when it happens. Long term holders will see this as a price blip in the grand scheme of things, whereas risk-averse traders would do better staying out of the market for now, until BU, SegWit, or both are activated. With a 30% drop from all-time high, price is beginning to show signs of a bottom and trend reset. This may precede a period of relative stability over the next three months, followed by bullish continuation to $1,789-$2,100 by years end.

Excerpt from:
Bitcoin Price Analysis - Indications of a bottom - Brave New Coin

The bitcoin scaling debate has taken yet another turn, although very few people saw this latest development coming. BitFury, one of the largest bitcoin mining pools, successfully mined a block on the network that signals for the user-activated SegWit soft fork. A rather controversial decision, although it could signal an end to the scaling debate once and for all.

Recently, apost appeared on Reddit explaining how the BitFury mining pool did something rather unexpected. The pool mined a block supporting the BIP 148 proposal, which effectively signals a user-activated soft fork for SegWit. As one would expect from such a move, it is evident BitFury is tired of the Bitcoin Unlimited shenanigans, which only seem to harm the network and the BTC price.

That being said, effectively signaling for mandatory activation of SegWit deployment is a rather unusual attitude. The user-activated soft fork will force SegWit to be deployed on the bitcoin main net, regardless of reaching amajority consensus. It is not a solution everyone will be happy with by any means, but the debate has escalated quite significantly these past few months. A solution is needed sooner or later, that much is certain.

Currently, it appears miners are not moving to activate either SegWit or Bitcoin Unlimited anytime soon. As long as this uneasy status quo is maintained, transaction costs will mount, putting more money into the miners pockets. Moreover, Bitcoin Unlimited activation would potentially result in creating multiple currencies called Bitcoin and BTU (Bitcoin Unlimited), which wouldnt do the ecosystem much good either. A user-activated soft fork is a plausible solution, albeit still a controversial one.

While it is significant BitFury signals this BIP through its mined blocks, that does not mean SegWit will be activated all of a sudden. A user-activated soft fork still requires majority community consensus and an activation date, which is slightly easier to achieve than just relying on the mining community. There will always be some opposition from those who feel this is not a reasonable solution to end the scaling debate once and for all, although it provides an alternative worth considering.

In the end, it is important to keep in mind a decision like these needs to be taken with both the users and the miners in mind. Users are clearly in favor of Segregated Witness, regardless of how it needs to be activated. Miners are keen on stalling, with a minority actively supporting Bitcoin Unlimited due to increased payouts from specific pools. It will be interesting to keep an eye on how this situation will proceed moving forward.

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BitFury Mines a Block Signalling The SegWit User-activated Soft Fork - The Merkle

The bitcoin ETF may still rise.

After a March 10 Securities and Exchange Commission ruling that nixed an official exchange-traded fund for bitcoin , many saw the issue as settled. But Bats BZX Exchange, which would have listed the ETF on its exchange, has revealed it will appeal the SECs decision.

The SEC turned down the ETF earlier this month because the online exchanges that bitcoin is traded on are not regulated, and therefore susceptible to fraud and other manipulation. (Read: Everything You Need to Know About the Bitcoin ETF.) Had the ETF been approved, it would have tracked the price of bitcoin and made buying and selling them as simple as a stock transaction.

The ETF, known as the Winklevoss Bitcoin Trust, was created by Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss, who were made famous (and quite rich) thanks to their lawsuit against Mark Zuckerberg over their involvement in Facebooks creation . The two brothers have been trying for years to bring bitcoin to the mainstream, and the failure to get approval for their ETF is a big blow to that cause.

Although bitcoin has been around since 2009, it didnt really become part of public consciousness until 2013, at which point its value skyrocketed from around $140 in late October of that year to more than $1,100 a month later, according to Coin Desk. But almost as fast as the price shot up, it crashed back down. Since then, it has taken more than three years for bitcoins price to make it back to the $1,100 mark, finally reaching it in January.

One bitcoin currently trades for $1,047, down from $1,258 before the SECs ruling. Large price swings in short time frames like that have happened frequently in bitcoins past, and that volatility was another reason the SEC declined to accept the Winklevoss ETF. Unlike other currencies such as the U.S. dollar or the Euro, whose values change incrementally and in a fairly predictable fashion, price fluctuations in bitcoin can be absolutely monstrous and it isnt always obvious what is making the price move.

One thing to note is that even though Bats will appeal the decision, there is no guarantee that the SEC even has to act on it in any way, let alone actually reconsider its choice. But if the ETF is approved, it would likely move bitcoin from being seen as a curiosity on Wall Street to being something investors see as worth legitimate attention for the first time.

Excerpt from:
Why the Winklevoss Bitcoin ETF May Not Be Dead Yet - Fortune

The JCC bomb threat suspect, identified as Michael Kaydar by The Daily Beast, leaving court in Rishon Lezion, Israel, March 23, 2017. (Jack Guez/AFP/Getty Images)

(JTA) The Israeli-American teenager suspected of perpetrating more than 100 bomb threats against Jewish institutions used technologies including Google Voice, acall forwarding service, and Bitcoin, a digital currency, to make the threats.

According to an article in The Daily Beast, the 19-year-old suspects name is Michael Kaydar. Israels anti-fraud squad arrested Kaydarat his home in southern Israel and searched the premises on Thursday.

He also is accused of a series of threats made in Europe, Australia and New Zealand in the past six months, according to reports in Israel, and is reported to have called in threats to the Israel Police two months ago regarding Israeli educational institutions.

To hide his identity, Kaydar used a technology called SpoofCard that masks a numbers caller ID, according to the Daily Beast. When police subpoenaed SpoofCards parent company to trace the calls real number, they learned that he had called from a disposable Google Voice number.

He paid for SpoofCard through Bitcoin, also untraceable, and routed his internet through proxies, making his IP address untraceable as well. In addition, he masked his voice in the calls to sound like a woman.

Kaydar was caught after he forgot to trace his internet connection through a proxy server, allowing police to trace his IP address, which led to his home.

Originally posted here:
JCC bomb threat suspect, named Michael Kaydar, reportedly used Bitcoin, Google Voice - Jewish Telegraphic Agency

Whether or not you know what blockchain is, you have probably heard of the seemingly mysterious cryptocurrency Bitcoin. Bitcoin and its underlying blockchain network are quietly making headlines around the globe. The recent success of Bitcoin and thesecurity of blockchainmay have some consumers considering an investment in the new denomination, but others are still wary. Newly released data further legitimizing the currency could be just the thing to push the undecided into the realm ofBitcoin proponents, however.

In 2008, Bitcoin was introduced by an anonymous group of programmers under the name of Satoshi Nakamoto, and then itwas released to the public as an open-source software in 2009. Unlike other online payment services like PayPaland Venmo, Bitcoin is a peer-to-peer network that takes place privately between two users there is no intermediary involved. The virtual currency is completely decentralized from any external influence, and all transactions are accounted for through a blockchain ledger.

While Bitcoin is thoroughly anonymous, all transactions on the blockchain ledger are available publicly. Using the time and date of a particular transaction, individuals could potentiallymatch someones online address to their identity. However,all transactions made through Bitcoin are encrypted with military-grade cryptography, ensuring that the deals are secure.

Sending and receiving bitcoins is already as easy as sending an email, and its poised to get even easierthanksto BitPay.

Bitpay is a payment processing service that allows users to spend bitcoins within a largernetwork of merchants. With Bitcoins unexpected rate of growth leading to longer delays in transactions and higher fees, Bitpay developers were pushed to accommodate the sudden popularity of Bitcoin.

This friction is making us get more creative in how we do user experience design for delayed payment states on the BitPay platform, co-founderStephen Pairexplained at theDistributed: Markets 2017conference.Our designers and engineers are constantly attuned to how we can make using Bitcoin intuitive, he added.

The frequent updates appear to be paying off as the company recently released a series of charts revealing a positive trend in Bitcoin usage. The data shows a significant increase in the number of Bitcoin payments being processed daily and in the value of the payments being processed.

Experts attribute this to the wealth effect. Essentially, people who bought Bitcoin when it was significantly cheaper want to spend it now that the value is high. The trend also affects what people are buying with bitcoins.Bitpay merchantCheapAir, a site that sells plane tickets, hotel reservations, and car rentals, has noticed a higher upper limit in the spending of their Bitcoin customers.

With bitcoin we tend to generate more sales in premium cabins like business class or first class, CheapAir founder Jeff Klee told Quartz. Certainly the average spend for the bitcoin customer is higher than a non-bitcoin customer.

This increased movement of bitcoins from consumers to companies highlights an important moment in the history of the cryptocurrency. While people initially saw bitcoinsas something they could hoard, theyre now seeing them as something to spend.Bitcoin [is being used] as a store of value, as a currency hedge, and as a payment method for economies without widespread credit card or banking access, James Walpole, BitPays marketing manager, told Quartz.

If these trends continue, the increased acceptance of the cryptocurrency as an alternative payment method might be enough to push it all the way into the mainstream.

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All the Evidence You Need That Bitcoin Is Turning Into a Real Currency - Futurism