Just last week, the price of Bitcoin reached a level that no    one thought possible just a few short months ago. In 2010,    Bitcoin was trading at around the 6 cents level. At the end of    2016, the price had risen to the lofty level of $960.47. At    that point, many people were calling the explosion of value a    bubble market in the cryptocurrency.  
    We are now not even at the halfway point of 2017, and the price    of Bitcoin has more than doubled from the level it was trading    at on the last day of December 2016. Demand for Bitcoin is    growing as the price of the asset is only controlled by bids    and offers in the market. If Bitcoin is a bubble market, it    could be one of the biggest bubbles in history. $100 invested    in Bitcoin in 2010 has grown in value to over $4.5 million at    the recent highs. If that is not a bubble, I do not know what    could constitute one. In fact, it is now a certainty that    Bitcoin will find its way into the history books as either the    best performing asset in history or, the biggest bubble ever    known to humankind. Right now, the Bitcoin bubble is boiling.  
    A long history of bubbles  
    " An asset bubble occurs when the price of a financial    asset or commodity rises to levels that are well above either    historical norms or its intrinsic value, or both." This    definition from Investopedia sums up the current situation in    Bitcoin. One of the cautionary signs of a bubble is when market    participants suspend disbelief and increasing signals that the    price of an asset is irrational. There have been so many    bubbles throughout history, but three of the biggest have    occurred since the 1980's.  
    In the early 1980's the Japanese yen surged by 50% which caused    a brutal recession in the Asian nation. The central bank and    government reacted with a program of monetary and fiscal    stimulus that caused stock prices and land values to triple    from 1985-1989. The bubble bust in the early 1990's leading to    a lost decade for the country in the 1990's and 2000's as the    economy tanked.  
    In the late 1990's in the United States shares in technology    companies soared leading to a dot-com bubble. The NASDAQ index    climbed from 500 at the beginning of 1990 to highs of over 5000    by March 2000 resulting in a crash where the index lost 80% of    its value by October 2002 triggering a recession in the U.S. It    took 15 years for the index to climb back and make a new high.  
    The last major bubble occurred in 2008 when U.S. housing prices    jumped to irrational levels leading to the Great Recession in    the United States. The economic contraction caused the central    bank in the U.S., and others around the world, to stimulate    economies via programs of historically low interest rates and    quantitative easing or repurchasing of debt by the central    bank.  
    Perhaps the most famous bubble in history occurred in the    1600's in the Netherlands.  
    Tulip mania and Bitcoin  
    Bitcoin is an asset like no other. In fact, central banks and    regulators around the world are having a hard time classifying    the cryptocurrency. The Commodities Futures Trading Commission    is looking at Bitcoin as a commodity, perhaps because of its    penchant for extreme price volatility. Bitcoin is certainly a    means of exchange. The regulators and governments are the    reasons for its existence. Many people around the world wish to    use an asset that is not under the control of any government or    regulatory body. Bitcoin is not like the stocks, bonds, or real    estate that caused the bubbles since 1980 it is different.    Therefore, we need to go back in history almost four centuries    to find another market that is analogous.  
    Tulip-mania gripped the Netherlands in the    1630 and is one of the earliest recorded instances of an    irrational asset bubble. Tulip prices soared twentyfold from    November 1636 and February 1637. The prices then plunged 99% by    May 1637. During the bubble, some rare tulip bulbs were worth    more than luxury homes. Bitcoin was 6 cents in 2010. In May    2017, it traded at almost $2800.  
    Is almost $2800 the high for Bitcoin?  
    There is a fixed amount of Bitcoin available to the market.    There are only 16,367,375 Bitcoins in circulation. At 6 cents,    the market cap of the entire market was just under $1 million.    On Friday, June 2, 2017, the market cap was $40.22 billion at a    price of $2450.85. In less than ten years the appreciation has    been nothing short of astonishing, and on the face of it,    Bitcoin looks like the biggest bubble in history. However, it    lacks several characteristics of a bubble market. While lots of    people are talking about Bitcoin around the world, few are    buying and selling the cryptocurrency. However, the beauty of    Bitcoin is that it is a market where the price is solely    determined by supply and demand as bids and offers in the    market cause the price to move without any governmental or    regulatory influence. Bitcoin is a lot like gold; the only    difference is that central banks are the world's largest    holders of the yellow metal and can affect the price by their    buying and selling activity. When it comes to Bitcoin, the    central banks, monetary authorities and supranational    institutions like the International Monetary Fund and World    Bank have been observers rather than participants.  
    When I was a young trader at one of the world's leading    commodities trading houses in the 1980's one of my bosses told    me that the only reasons that markets go up or down is when    there are more buyers than sellers or more sellers than buyers.    When it comes to Bitcoin, that lesson rings especially true.  
    One of the aspects of the cryptocurrency that has gained    widespread appeal is the operations system of recording that    tracks ownership of Bitcoin.  
    Blockchain validates the cryptocurrency and vice    versa  
    Blockchain or distributed ledger technology will change the    world of operations in financial markets, banking, and other    business disciplines. The computer-based record keeping allows    for an instantaneous flow of ownership and will make formerly    tedious operations and settlement procedures more efficient.    Blockchain will save Wall Street and many other areas of the    international economy lots of money and time in the years    ahead. Most recently, the CFTC has set up a lab to encourage    and spread the technology throughout the commodities futures    markets.  
    In many ways, Bitcoin has validated the existence of Blockchain    and vice versa. The growing acceptance of Blockchain or DLT as    the norm of the future has confirmed Bitcoin as an asset.  
    The financial drone that flies beneath the radar has    tremendous appeal that is growing- Watch for a split that could    boost prices  
    The appeal of Bitcoin is that it is a financial drone that    flies beneath the radar of governments and regulators. In    China, Russia, and other nations that do not have freely    convertible currencies Bitcoin is a method of electronically    moving wealth abroad to regions of the world where the rules    allow for money to move more quickly. While there are many    nefarious applications for Bitcoin in the world of narcotics,    arms, computer hacking, kidnapping ransom and other illegal    activities, in Japan Bitcoin is accepted by most merchants for    payment and its acceptance in Europe is growing.  
    Bitcoin is held in a computer wallet by holders and is    transferred from sellers to buyers via blockchain operations.    No one controls the market. It would make sense, given the    current price level for a split of the number of Bitcoins in    circulation at this point. A 100 to 1 split would put the price    at around the $24 level which would make the market more    attractive to a greater addressable market. However, one of the    many answers I do not have about the cryptocurrency which is an    enigma wrapped in a riddle, is who would arrange for such a    split?  
    When it comes to bubbles, it is almost impossible to identify a    top from which the asset comes crashing down. Bitcoin currently    as many of the characteristics of a bubble, perhaps the    greatest asset bubble in history but where it pops is anyone's    guess at this point. The Bitcoin bubble was boiling at $500,    $1000, $2000, and most recently $2800. With a market cap of    around $40 billion, the total stock of Bitcoin has a current    value of just over half of Warren Buffett's net worth these    days. As a means of exchange that transcends borders, it is    likely that this bubble is not close to inflated yet. The Mount    Gox scandal a few years ago slowed the ascent of the    cryptocurrency, but now it seems to be full steam ahead for an    asset that was born less than eight years ago.  
    Many people believe that Bitcoin is a Ponzi-scheme. However, it    is looking more like a tulip bulb to me these days. That bulb    could keep appreciating for a long time before it hits the    history books and by that time it could be the biggest bubble    in history, and the price after the fall may even be higher    than its current level.  
    Each Wednesday I provide subscribers with a detailed report on    the major commodity sectors covering over 30 individual    commodity markets, most of which trade on U.S. futures markets.    The report will give an up, down or neutral call on these    markets for the coming week and will outline the technical and    fundamental state of each market. At times, I will make    recommendations for risk positions in the ETF and ETN markets    as well as in commodity equities and related options. You can    sign up for The    Hecht Commodity Report on the Seeking Alpha    Marketplace page.  
    Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks    mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the    next 72 hours.  
    I wrote this article myself,    and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving    compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no    business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned    in this article.  
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