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SALT LAKE CITY The Salt Lake and Ogden-Clearfield areas are among the top 10 regions in the United States that will be most affected by the rise of artificial intelligence, according to a study recently released by Washington D.C.-based research group the Brookings Institution.

In the past, research has suggested that AI will disproportionately affect blue-collar and low-income workers, like factory employees or office clerks, who will soon find themselves replaced by machines. But past research hasnt often distinguished between the coming effects of advancements in robotics and software, and those of artificial intelligence, or computers that can plan, learn, reason and problem solve.

As robotics and software become more sophisticated, theyll replace employees in industries like manufacturing, construction or clerical work, the study claims. But artificial intelligence will change the world of the white-collar worker more than anything else and Salt Lake and Ogden will be in the thick of it.

In fact, AI will disproportionately affect areas that specialize in industries like technology, engineering, science, transportation, manufacturing and law, the study shows. And Utahs booming tech sector has not gone unnoticed.

Among the most AI-exposed large metro areas are San Jose, Calif., Seattle, Salt Lake City and Ogden, Utah all high-tech centers, the study reads.

Those four tech hubs are joined in the top 10 most-affected areas by agriculture, logistics and manufacturing centers like Bakersfield, California; Greenville, South Carolina; Detroit, Michigan; and Louisville, Kentucky.

Higher educated and higher paid workers will be most affected by the rise of AI in the coming decades, and workers with bachelors degrees will be more than five times as exposed to artificial intelligence as workers with high school degrees, the study shows.

Eventually, AI will be a significant factor in the future work lives of relatively well-paid managers, supervisors and analysts, according to the report.

Nobody can predict the future, said Dan Ventura, a computer science professor at Brigham Young University who specializes in artificial intelligence research.

While the studys methodology and predictions are kind of cool and better than nothing, theyre just that: predictions, Ventura explained. And the study acknowledges its shortcomings, too.

While the present assessment predicts areas of work in which some kind of impact is expected, it doesnt specifically predict whether AI will substitute for existing work, complement it, or create entirely new work for humans, the study reads.

AI is getting disturbingly good at pattern recognition and pattern matching, including tasks like facial recognition or medical diagnosing from images, Ventura said. But it falls short in other areas.

AI is not good at judgement right now. And even to the extent that it is good at judgement, people dont trust it and dont know if they can trust it. So theyre not going to turn that kind of thing over to AI. At least, they shouldnt, he said.

So while Ventura believes jobs that require skills like pattern recognition may be threatened, those that involve judgment calls are probably safe for a while.

Whats interesting about this (study) is the claim that theyre making that, probably for the first time, this sort of displacement concern, it isnt focused on lower education, lower skill its the other kind of people that theyre worried about. And I think thats pretty interesting, even if Im not sure I buy it all the way, he said.

Ventura does predict, however, that even if AI replaces certain high-skill jobs, new jobs will pop up in response. The rise of artificial intelligence will most likely require (at least in the beginning) something like AI quality control to ensure that the new technology isnt making mistakes.

AI is not good at judgement right now. And even to the extent that it is good at judgement, people dont trust it.Dan Ventura, BYU computer science professor

And while the rise of AI may cause some workforce casualties along the way, Ventura expects the labor market will adapt to the technological advancements, as it has throughout all of human history.

Mark Knold, chief economist of Utahs Department of Workforce Services, agrees.

His research shows that there simply arent enough workers to maintain the size of the U.S. economy as it stands. Instead, the labor market must either allow more immigrants into the country, let the economy shrink in size, or let machines do some of the work, he said.

Artificial intelligence wont replace workers, it will replace missing workers, he argues.

"A lot of these studies can leave you the impression with a fear of the future, Knold said. I think thats the wrong takeaway from studies like this. Theres always new technologies coming that threaten old technologies and workers in those old technologies. But yet, as time goes on, they transition to the new ones, and things are even bigger and better.

If workers are going to be ready to adapt to the change artificial intelligence brings to the workforce, education will need to adapt too, Ventura explained.

But the BYU professor believes the states educational system is already behind, even at the university level.

In my little computer science environment, were not out of touch with it at all, he said. But if you look at the general education program (at BYU), theres nothing. Theres no computer science (or) algorithmic stuff in general education. Its just not a thing.

Utahs fast-growing tech companies have been aware of a talent gap for awhile as they scramble to find employees to fill their ever-expanding needs. But research shows that unless children are exposed to computer science at an early age, theyre much less likely to choose it as a career.

While Utah is working to bring computer science to all K-12 schools in the state by 2022, its a difficult feat, and educational curriculums dont change nearly as fast as technology.

If this AI boom continues to happen, and technology continues to march forward, and we see some of these paradigm-shifting kinds of things, thatll just make us even more behind, Ventura said.

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Artificial intelligence will affect Salt Lake, Ogden more than most areas in the nation, study shows - KSL.com